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The Nemenoff Report - EuroFX, Bonds, Metals, Equities and Grains Lower

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 13.04.2015
Financials: June Bonds are currently 15 lower at 163’01, 10 Yr. Notes 1.5 lower at 128’24.5 and 5 Yr. Notes unchanged at 120.04. Last week saw poor auction results on the 30 Yr. pushing rates several basis points higher. We remain spread long the 5 Yr./short the 10 Yr. from the 9’02 premium the 10 Yr. level. The spread is currently at 8’20 premium the 10 Yr. and I am looking for profit taking opportunities on further breaks. Grains: May Corn is currently 2’0 lower at 375’0, May Beans 1’0 higher at 952’4 and May Wheat 15’0 lower at 511’4. I am currently on the sidelines, however, I will be a buyer in May Corn in the 368’0 area. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Dollar Steady. Interest Rate Futures higher after Friday’s sharp drop

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 09.03.2015
Financials: June Bonds are currently 26 higher at 156’15, 10 Yr. Notes 6 higher at 126’08 and 5 Yr. Notes3 higher at 118’14.5. On Friday Bonds dropped sharply as a result of the monthly e,mployment report which showed an increase of 295,000 non-farm payrolls, well above the pre-report average guesstimate of 235,000. The unemployment also continued to drop, however average earnings were below estimates. The continued drop in the rate of unemployment and the increase in jobs might just be the impetus the Fed needs to raise rates in the 3rd quarter (July-Sept.). ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Ukraine withdraws troops. Greece seeks loan extension. Jan. FOMC minutes today

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 18.02.2015
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 11 higher at 144’14, 10 Yr. Notes 7 higher at 127’15 and 5 Yr. Notes 4 higher at 119’14. We have covered all short biased naked and spread positions and are currently on the sidelines. Today’s focus will be the FOMC minutes as the market will be looking for language to indicate when a rate hike will take place. For me, Eurodollar futures show that it will be after June. Greece it appears is back at the bargaining table, after walking out yesterday, looking for a loan extension. Does anybody really think these debt will ever be paid back? ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Expanded limits for Cattle today. Equity Markets reaction negative after Jobs Report. Grain Report today

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 12.01.2015
Financials: Mar. Bonds 4 higher at 147’21, 10 Yr. Notes 3 higher at 128’22 and 5 Yr. Notes 3 higher at 120’03. Friday’a Job Report showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of 252,000. Inspite of this economically positive number the market chose to focus more on the slight drop in wages and the situation in France. ... mehr

Morning Softs Comments 01/08/2015

Jack Scoville I Price Group - ltfutures - 08.01.2015
COTTON General Comments: Prices were higher in consolidation trading. Traders are getting ready for the next round of USDA reports on Monday that should show few changes. Trading was calm before the USDA export sales report today. Demand fears returned on weak stock market action and the strong US Dollar. Support is coming from ideas of less production in 2015. Ideas are that producers in the Delta and Southeast could switch at least some área to Soybeans. The market is back into its trading range and acts weak. US and world demand remains low and shows no real signs of improvement. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - S&P near all time high overnight. Wheat lower.

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 19.12.2014
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently unchanged at 143’24, 10 Yr. Notes 3.5 higher at 126’19 and the 5 Yr. Note 3 higher at 118’27.5. All I can do is plant an idea on these markets. I feel that the yield curve is about to steepen and am going to be focusing on the long 10 Yr./ short Bond spread and/or the long 5 Yr./short 10 Yr. spread. Grains: Mar. Corn is currently 5’0 lower at 406’0, Jan. Beans 6’6 lower at 1028’2 and Mar. Wheat 17’2 lower at 638’0. If you went short Wheat yesterday either take profits or use a protective buy stop at 653’4. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Metals rally as Russian Ruble continues to fall

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 10.12.2014
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 6 higher at 143’11, 10 Yr. Notes 3.5 higher at 126’22.5 and the 5 Yr. Notes 2 higher at 118’30. The yield curve has continued to flatten as long term rates continue to drop and Eurodollar rates have had a slight bump up on contracts dated for June 2015 and beyond. Bonds are now getting to a level where my bias is getting negative. I will be a seller above the 144’00 level. Grains: Mar. Corn is currently fractionally higher at 395’2, Jan. Beans 1’4 higher at 1050’6 and Mar. Wheat 4’2 lower at 581’4. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - ECB leaves rates unchanged, market awaits Draghi statements about possible quantitative easing

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 04.12.2014
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 8 higher at 141’16, 10 Yr. Notes 3 higher at 126’12 and 5 Yr. Notes 2 higher at 119’03. A couple of items this morning. Weekly jobless claims were down by 17k, in line with expectations of a 19k drop. The ECB left rates unchanged. It is expected that later this morning Mario Draghi will comment on Europe’s economy and suggest that if needed the ECB will take action to keep rates low in an attempt for stimulus. Earlier in the week we recommended going long Mar. Bonds in the 141’16 area. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Gold and Silver higher after making new lows Sunday evening. Equities lower

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 01.12.2014
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 11 higher at 142’31, 10 Yr. Notes 11 higher at 127’12 and 5 Yr. Notes 7 higher at 119’23. Bonds have rallied since our last Report as Precious Metals and Energies declined after the announcement by OPED that there will not be a cut in Crude Oil production. This once again has ignited fears of very low inflation and/or deflation. As mentioned last week Bonds technically appear to have broken out to the upside. Treat as a trading market between141’16 and 144’06. Grains: Mar. Corn is currently 3’2 lower at 385’4 and Jan. Beans 1’0 higher at 1017’0. Trends remain down. I remain a seller in Mar. Corn in the 395’0 area. ... mehr

Morning Softs Comments 12/01/2014

Jack Scoville I Price Group - ltfutures - 01.12.2014
COTTON General Comments: Futures closed higher, but remain stuck in a trading range. Export demand for US Cotton was stronger as buyers feel prices are very attractive. The best support comes from the USDA marketing loan program as cash values are now blow world rates. That means that producers will most likly put Cotton into the loan program and not on the open market. China might be forced to cut its interest rates again to help its economy, and remains a weak importer of Cotton this year in any case as it works to reduce its own government supplies. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Cattle on fed report shows higher than expected placements

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 24.11.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 141’21, 10 Yr. Notes 5 lower at 126’17 and 5 Yr. Notes2.7 lower at 119’18. On last Friday China lowered key interest rates by up to 40 basis points as Mario Draghi reiterated previous statements that the ECB will do whatever it takes to fight deflation. The obvious effect: A rally in Bonds above the 142’00 level. I am still looking at this market with a bit of skepticism and will continue to treat as a trading affair between 140’08 and 142’28. Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 2’6 lower at 370’0, Jan Beans 11’0 lower at 1028’0 and Dec. Wheat fractionally lower at 546’4. ... mehr

Morning Softs Comments 11/13/2014

Jack Scoville I Price Group - ltfutures - 13.11.2014
COTTON General Comments: Futures closed lower. Futures remain in a trading range on daily and weekly charts, but trends are trying to turn down again. Harvest progress remains good, and ideas are that producers will have to start selling. Producers are not selling as prices are low and the USDA loan support program offers a better deal for them. The weather is good as most US production áreas are now dry and harvesting should be very active. The market remains concerned about overall demand potential and about big world stocks. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Holiday Market Today, Light Volume. Equities on New Highs

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 11.11.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 140’28, 10 Yr. Notes fractionally lower at 126’08 and the 5 Yr. Note unchanged at 119’10.5. I am still looking at the Bonds as a trading affair between 140’06 and 142’28. Volume will be light today as many participants are on the sidelines due to the Veteran’s Day Holiday. We are still watching the long June 2015/short June 2017 Eurodollar spread and expect it to widen over time as it is expected that rates will start to rise 2nd or 3rd quarter 2015. Grains: Dec. Corn is currently fractionally higher at 396’6, Jan. Beans 3’2 higher at 1029’0 and Dec. Wheat 1’6 lower at 515’4. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Equities about steady, Gold and Silver Slightly Lower.

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 03.11.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 3 higher at 141’06, 10 Yr. Notes 1 higher at 126’12.5 and the 5 Yr. Note fractionally lower at 119’13. These vmarkets have been relatively calm over the last 2 sessions given the dramatic moves in the currencies, metals and equities. Continue to treat Bonds as a trading affair between 140’06 and 142’29. Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 3’6 lower at 373’0, Jan .Beans 10’0 lower at 1048’0 and Dec. Wheat 4’2 lower at 528’2. On Friday we cover short positions in Dec. Corn and Nov. Beans. I feel that the fundamental bias remains negative for Corn and Soy and will be looking to reinstate short positions on rallies. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Bank of Japan increases stimulus, Yen and metals slide, Equities surge, Bonds trade lower

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 31.10.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 14 lower at 141’04, 10 Yr. Notes 6 lower at 126’14 and 5 Yr. Notes down 3 at 119’16. Early this morning the Bank of Japan announced it would increase it’s Bond purchases by more than the equivalent of 780 billion dollars (quantitative easing) in an ceffort to stimulate their economy and fight deflation. The U.S. treasuries broke slightly compared to the rally in the Dollar and glodal equities. Trat as a trading affair between 140’06 and 142’29. Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 1’0 lower at 373’0, Nov. Beans 1’2 higher at 1027’0 and Dec. Wheat 3’0 lower at 533’0 If you went short Dec. Corn above 378’0 either take the small profit or use a buy stop just above the overnight high of 375’0 ... mehr

Morning Softs Comments 10/30/2014

Jack Scoville I Price Group - ltfutures - 30.10.2014
COTTON General Comments: Futures higher on follow through buying. The market seems to need to find some producer selling. Producers are not selling as prices are low and the USDA loan support program offers a better deal for them. The weather is good as most US production áreas are now dry and harvesting should be very active. The market remains concerned about overall demand potential and about big world stocks. It expected an improved export sales report today, but overall sales remain generlly por. Plus, Turkey has just announced a dumping investigation for US Cotton as tensions between the two countries continue to rise.. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report: New Ebola case sets back S&P’s. What you need to know about June 2015 Bonds!

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 24.10.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 higher at 142’11, 10 Yr. Notes 8 higher at 127’08 and the 5 Yr. Note 4 higher at 120’01.2. Need to know: On Wednesday June Bonds rallied sharply jumping more than 10’00 points to above 151’00, as the rest of the market was more or less unchanged. The June contract now carries a large premium to the Dec. and March contracts which under normal circumstances would be at a discount. Little known up until the contract was open (Wednesday was essentially the first trading day for this contract) the pricing for this contract reflected the change in the basket for the cheapest securities eligible for delivery against the Bond contract. ... mehr

Better than expected earnings reports boost equities. Gold trades above 1250.00.

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 21.10.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 13 lower at 142’22, 10 Yr. Notes 7 lower at 127’19 and the 5 Yr. Note 4 lower at 120’07. These markets have set back from last weeks lofty numbers as equities have had a near 50% correction to the upside from their recent lows due to some surprisingly good earnings (Apple for instance) in spite of the poor out look of others (IBM). To be honest I do not see anything on the horizon for the week and will stay on the sidelines for the next few sessions. Grains: ec. Corn is currently 1’0 lower at 347’2, Nov. Beans 4’0 higher at 948’2 and Dec. Wheat 2’6 higher at 516’2. Corn and Beans continue to trade sideways showing resistace at 360’0 and 960’0 respectively. ... mehr

OPEC Eats Its Own IEA Lowest demand growth since 2009!

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 14.10.2014
The Saudis say get ready for low oil prices as it is survival of the fittest in the OPEC cartel as the International Energy Agency slashes demand growth. Iraq joined Iran and Saudi Arabia in lower crude differentials as the biggest producers in the OPEC cartel have demonstrated that they will not cut production. Saudi Arabia seems to be willing to accept oil prices below $90 per barrel, and even as low as $80, for up to a year or two despite the fact that that price may destroy the economies of some OPEC members like say Venezuela. This comes against a back drop of questionable global demand growth as the International Energy Agency makes a major cut in demand growth expectations. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/14/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 14.10.2014
The Beat Goes On! Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the Grains continued to rally. Although they are coming off session highs and sellers seem to be wetting their appetite. The December Corn is currently trading at 346 which is unchanged. The trading range has been 349 to 345 ¼ so far. It seems to me the market is setting a bull trap unless Jack Frost sneaks up and starts nipping at our nose which I do not see in the coming days. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Hedge Fund Liquidation sells off equities

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 14.10.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 higher at at 142’21, 10 Yr. Notes 10.5 higher at 127’15.5 and 5 Yr. Notes 5 higher at 120’01. Continued flight to quality in treasuries as Equities set back about 6% over the last couple of weeks. I am willing to sell the 5 Yr. Note above 120’00 (I incorrectly stated my sell level at 125’00 yesterday, my apologies). I will also be willing to go long June 2015/short June 2017 Eurodollar futures below the 172 level premium the 2015 contract (currently at 176). Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 1’2 higher at 347’2, Nov. Beans 12’4 higher at 958’0 and Dec. Wheat 1’2 lower at 504’0. I feel these markets are in resistance and choose to be on the sidelines. ... mehr

The Energy Report - Dollar for Dollar

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 13.10.2014
Iran lowered their oil price to match a drop by Saudi Arabia as a production war may be breaking out. Oil producers desperate to hang unto market share will cut price before production. Of course does OPEC blame a slowing global economy and rising global production for the drop in price? Of course not. The Culprit they say is the oil speculator. Benoit Faucon of the Wall street Journal wrote that "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday blamed speculation as the main cause of a decline in oil prices, which have fallen to levels not seen since 2010. In its bimonthly bulletin, OPEC said that according to its secretariat, "the actions of speculators are again behind much of the price decline." It said speculators had reduced their net long positions by nearly half in August and said the same players had been behind a sharp increase in prices in June." ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/13/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 13.10.2014
Happy Columbus Day! Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 334 ¼ which is ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 337 ¼ to 330 ½ so far. With today's bank holiday expect light volume which could produce some big corrective swings in the Stock market and the basket of commodities as well. On the Ethanol front there were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. With continued follow through of cheaper Gas prices the psychology of the Ethanol market should be the same. The November contract settled at 1.597 and is showing 5 bids @ 1.573 and 5 offers @ 1.620. ... mehr

No Signs of Stopping

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 10.10.2014
Oil hits a 2 year low as a shaky global economic picture and signs that OPEC won't cut production are creating a mass exodus. Iran lowered their crude price differentials in a sign that a potential production war might be brewing. If OPEC members continue to cut prices instead of production, it will add even more supply to an already over supplied market. ECB Chief Mario Draghi reinforced fears about the Euro zone as deflationary forces engulf the Euro-Zone. The magnitude of the drop goes beyond just the simple bearish supply fundamentals and is signally perhaps something more ominous about the state of the global economy. Oil many times is the cannery in the coalmine and the bird is nowhere to be seen. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/10/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 10.10.2014
Bears On Steroids! Good Morning! Super Mario is at it again. With a very weak German economy and the rest of the European theatre in bad shape as well Mario Draghi is talking more quantitative easing which means they will print more Euro's like the Fed did in the 2007 banking crisis when Draghi declared it was America's problem and in his shortsighted way continued to raise rates. Now that America is trying to get out of the pressure cooker and taper meaning raising rates we won't be able to do so because that would kill our trading partners economies leaving no one to buy our goods. ... mehr

Fed Blinks Yet Oil Sinks

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 09.10.2014
The Federal Reserve seemed to blink in the staring contest over whether or not they can ignore growth in the rest of the world and raise rates. The FOMC minutes showed that some Fed officials are worried that growth in the U.S. might be slower if foreign economic growth continues to slow. The Fed rightly has taken notice of one of the concerns that I have been harping on that the imbalances between the U.S. and the rest of the world is in danger not only to the U.S. economy but the global economy as well. If rates rise in the U.S. while Germany and the rest of Europe sinks deeper in recession it could trigger a global deflation outbreak that would make Ebola look like a walk in the park. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/09/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 09.10.2014
Natural Gas Storage and the FED Rock the Boat Today Good Morning! This morning we will be busy at 7:30 A.M. with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and Wholesale Trade data to be released. And later at 9:30 we have the weekly EIA Gas Storage inventory data which could change the hearts of sellers minds depending on the injection number. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 341 ½ which is 1 ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range 343 to 340 ¾. Tomorrow's report will be the driving force in the days to come. Don't forget weather! ... mehr

INF Breaks Oil

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 08.10.2014
Oil goes into a downside breakout after the IMF raised concerns about frothy stock markets and weaker economic growth causing a reaction with stimulus moves by Russia and Norway. The IMF also raised concerns about the divergence of the direction of the U.S. and other economies something that I have said is becoming more of an issue. Russia getting hit hard by sanctions and a falling oil price intervened in the Ruble for the third time this month. Norway is also feeling the pain and its right-wing minority government proposed cutting taxes and spending more "oil cash" from the country's sovereign wealth fund to counter the slowdown in economic growth according to a Dow Jones report. This comes as Iran says that they have no intention of cutting production and the American Petroleum Institute reports a build in supply. This comes after weak data in Europe and Asia as the global oil demand outlook is fading fast. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/8/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 08.10.2014
Plains, Trains and Automobiles Good Morning! The title says it all with the reflection of the markets and the global economic cycles we are realizing. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 339 ¾ which is ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 341 ¾ to 337 ½ so far. The Grain complex is hovering and dog-paddling of how much of a rally we can muster before sellers come back into play to find an absolute bottom. Remember we have frost scares with this record crop as inch closer to Friday's Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand report. Let's not miss the boat. ... mehr

Big Deals and Refining

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 07.10.2014
Could a deal, a potential deal, in the mining sector signal that we are close to a bottom in the commodity asset class? News over night that Glencore the mining and commodity trading group made a play for Rio Tinto that would in theory make them the largest mining company in the world. While Rio rejected the deal the stock is rising on word that Glencore is approaching Rio's largest stockholders to try to win support. Many times when these big deals happen it is a sign that the there is a bottom in the offing! We saw that in the bottom in oil back in 1999 when everyone was doing merger deals and when there was a collapse in oil prices. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/07/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 07.10.2014
Grain Rally Stopped In Its Tracks? Good Morning! The initial frost scares and dry weather in Brazil coupled with transportation concerns in South America to move and store the crop. We saw the effect of Brazil's dry weather in the Coffee market yesterday as well. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 330 ¾ which is 1 ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 332 ¾ to 330 ¾ so far. Weather, harvesting and Friday's Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand reports are key to the market at this time. ... mehr

Listen To What the Dollar Is Saying

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 06.10.2014
When it comes to the recent move down in oil and other commodities I have heard many people say it's just the dollar. Yet to dismiss this as just the dollar fails to grasp what the dollar is trying to say about the global economy and where we are going from here. It represents a total about face from where we were at the beginning of the financial crisis and it signals that around the globe many economies still face struggles that will take its toll on demand. It isn't just the dollar, the dollar is everything. What it represents as a world looking for safe harbor as their economies struggles as the U.S. recovers. The U.S. jobs report blew away expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 248,000 jobs last month. We also saw a surprise drop in the unemployment rate 5.9 percent. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/06/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 06.10.2014
Jack Frost Shown His Bitter Face and Sparked Shorts to Lighten Their Load Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 328 which is 4 ¾ cents higher. The trading range has been 329 ¼ to 323 ¼ so far. The spike in prices can be traced to cooler than norm temperatures in places in the mid-west in this harvest season. Another bullish factor is transportation cost in Brazil to move Grains for storage has heighten concerns of what those farmers will be able to do with their product. Do not forget this Friday we have the monthly Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand data. ... mehr

Barrels on Sale!

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 02.10.2014
Oil prices already under siege from weak economic data got hit harder after Saudi Arabia put barrels on sale! Just as if you owned a store and you could not move enough inventory the best thing to do is to have a sale. 1 dollar off a barrel! Get it while it's hot! The Saudis that have already cut back production are hoping that the Chinese, their biggest customer, will be more enticed to buy oil ahead of winter. Yet for oil it just cemented the fact that there is an oversupply in oil. Of course the Chinese has other things on their mind. With the protests in Hong Kong continuing there are still worries that a crackdown may be coming. Obviously if it comes to that it won't bode well for economic growth or demand growth for oil. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/02/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 02.10.2014
Look Out Below****Volatility in the Markets Good Morning! This morning we have the following reports: Export Sales and Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 followed with Factory Orders at 9:00 and EIA Gas Storage at 9:30. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 320 which is 1 ¼ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 321 ½ to 319 ¼ so far. Weather should be the overriding factor as supplies seem abundant as we head into next Monday's weekly Crop Progress followed with next Friday's Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand report. ... mehr

Reasons Why Oil Price Have Fallen

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 01.10.2014
There are 101 reasons why oil has fallen as hard as it has, hitting a 2 year low. The main reason in the back of it all is US oil production. Yet after a substantial drop out of the normal expected daily trading range my phone rang off the hook wondering why oil has fallen so far. Well there is short term and long term reasons and we will try to cover some of them in no particular order. 1. Rising US Oil Production: I have already mentioned that the main reason behind the drop is the U.S. oil producer. The fracking revolution has changed this market in ways that few could have imagined just a few years ago. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 10/01/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 01.10.2014
Outlined Against A Blue-Gray October Sky Good Morning! Welcome to the time of year and leaves changing as yesterday's cooler than normal temperatures give way to warmer temperatures today. Which may have harvesting pick up as the farmers work hard in the fields. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 319 which is 1 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 320 ¼ to 318 ½ so far. The Grain complex is looking to forge a bottom but buyers beware. On the Ethanol front we had a trade posted in the November contract at 1.571 which is .003 of a cent higher in the overnight electronic session. I still believe this market is way overpriced at this juncture. ... mehr

US Oil Exports and Natural Gas Bottom

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 30.09.2014
Holes continue to be poked in the U.S. oil export ban as an abundance of U.S. oil makes it more likely that oil will go elsewhere. Genscape Vesseltracker reported that Alaskan crude oil has been exported outside of the United States since 2004. This is another step in lifting the 1970's oil ban that already has been challenged by U.S. exports of 'condensate' that does not quite fit our traditional definition of what crude oil is. Genscape monitoring data showed that a cargo of Alaskan North Slope crude loaded Sept. 26 at the Alaskan port of Valdez for delivery into the South Korean refining center of Yeosu. Yeosu they say is home to a GS Caltex-operated 775,000 bpd refinery, the world's fourth largest. The vessel, Polar Discovery, is expected to arrive on October 10. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/30/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 30.09.2014
Rain Showers in Northwest and North Bring in Cooler Than Norm Temperatures Today Good Morning! Rains in the Northwest and North are bringing in cooler temperatures for a day and then we warm up on Wednesday. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 325 which ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 326 ¼ to 324 ½ so far. The Grain Complex looks weak in early trade, however we may see a chop in today's action. ... mehr

Artic Windfall

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 29.09.2014
Russia's Rosneft in partnership with Exxon-Mobil corp. announced a massive discovery of a well that may contain close to a billion barrels of oil in Artic! The find could rival the amount of oil in the Gulf of Mexico and already Russia is using this find to try to convince the US to lift sanctions out of this Artic windfall. Rosneft now has a billion reasons why sanctions should be lifted. Bloomberg News reports that the announcement was made by Igor Sechin, Rosneft's chief executive office. The well found about 1 billion barrels of oil and similar geology nearby means the surrounding area may hold more than the U.S. part of the Gulf or Mexico, he said. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/29/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 29.09.2014
Grain Complex Still Looks Weak God Morning! Even with marginal gains in the Wheat and Corn this Complex as a whole has many hurdles to cross to be a good exporter especially with the U.S. dollar compared to week European currencies as they continue quantitative easing. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 324 ¼ which is 1 ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 325 to 322 so far. The complex as a whole is searching for a bottom. ... mehr

Gas U-TURN

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 26.09.2014
The New Era in Low Gas Prices has taken another slight U turn. Just as gas prices were plummeting across the nation refinery problems and a squeeze play may show the march to below $3.00 a gallon across parts of the nation. While the big picture on gas prices is still bearish in the short term refining problems and rumors of issues surrounding the Colonial pipeline caused the soon to expire October RBOB future that had amassed a record short position by money managers to explode. There were many problems both confirmed and unconfirmed. Bloomberg News reported that Exxon Baytown in the gulf coast will keep its shut fluid catalytic cracker 3 and alkylation unit with a capacity of 580.000 barrel per day. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - 2nd quarter GDP +4.6% vs. expectations of +4.2%

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 26.09.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1 lower at 137’25 settling back from a recent high of 138’07 earlier this morning on the release of 2nd quarter GDP which came in at 4.6%, slightly better than expectations of 4.2%. We remain spread long June 2017/short June 2015 Eurodollar futures, currently trading at 203 premium the June 2015 contract. Take profits below 198 premium the June 2015. Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 1’0 lower at 325’0, Nov. Beans 8’2 lower at 914’4 and Dec. Wheat 4’2 lower at 469’6. Trends remain as these markets search for a reason to find support. Beans make new lows despite positive export news. I’m on the sidelines. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/26/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 26.09.2014
Do the Math or Correlate the Conversion Good Morning! There must be something in the air that shows Ethanol output at six month low while the Grain complex continues to be buried. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 326 which is unchanged. The trading range has been 327 to 325 ½ so far On the Ethanol front this market wants to attract attention with light volume and Corn prices seem to be doomed. In the overnight electronic session the October contract is currently trading at 1.633 which is .028 cents higher. The trading range has been 1.6330 to 1.606 so far. Another huge factor in this market is COST of PRODUCTION… Is it worth it? ... mehr

The Return To $30 a Barrel Oil

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 25.09.2014
While the world starts to understand that behind the evil behind ISIS there is also another element to it, greed. US airstrikes hit mobile oil refineries in Syria that was help fund the terrorist group. Ideology is always best suited when it is being funded with oil and to strike at these mobile units is a step in destroying this ISIS terror threat. That was clear that when they were fighting over the Brega refinery in Iraq they went to great measures to kill people but save the refinery. While the Brent Crude fell hard against the WTI as Libyan oil comes back on line a late surge led by RBOB gasoline as refinery glitches and a larger than expected drop in US crude supply brought the market back. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/25/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 25.09.2014
Global Events are Catching Traders Attention Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 329 ¾ which is ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 330 ¾ to 329 so far. Crazy weather patterns across the continental divide may keep the bears away from the picnic table for now. I still remain focused not to give Yogi Bear another reason to participate in this market; however there is a harsh reality of stocks and carryover that will hold a pall over this market. ... mehr

The Energy Report - Brent Crude

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 24.09.2014
Brent Crude is weighing down the complex as weak comic data in Europe is overshadowing the shock value of airstrikes in Syria. The German IFO Index and the fact that the World Bank is lowering Russia growth prospects make Brent look heavy especially with Libyan oil from its largest oil field back on line. Libyan oil output has risen to 800,000 barrels per day, with the key El Sharara oilfield restarting. The Germany's IFO business confidence tanked falling to 104.7 from 106.3. The IFO economic institute show that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has taken a toll. The reading was the lowest level since April 2013. ... mehr

Brent Crude

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 24.09.2014
Brent Crude is weighing down the complex as weak comic data in Europe is overshadowing the shock value of airstrikes in Syria. The German IFO Index and the fact that the World Bank is lowering Russia growth prospects make Brent look heavy especially with Libyan oil from its largest oil field back on line. Libyan oil output has risen to 800,000 barrels per day, with the key El Sharara oilfield restarting. The Germany's IFO business confidence tanked falling to 104.7 from 106.3. The IFO economic institute show that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has taken a toll. The reading was the lowest level since April 2013. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/24/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 24.09.2014
More Bombs Bursting! Good Morning! On the Crude Oil front we are still cyphering a thing from the pat called geo-political risk something we have not seen in sometime. Now we look at political ramifications of bombing terrorist that want to kill us weather we sit we our hands under our bottom or react. Unfortunately, we did not have to react. The law was laid down plain and simple we just need leadership to follow the lead our troops gave them earlier. Last night's API data showed a surprise draw of 6.5 million barrels when we were looking for builds of 2 to 3 million barrels. I believe the EIA inventory data may change the hearts of bullish geo-political bargain hunters. ... mehr

Air Strikes in Syria

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 23.09.2014
Air strikes in Syria and economic data is giving oil and other commodities a ride. Geopolitical risk stories are coming faster that the speed of light so too is evidence that the global economy is stagnating. While manufacturing data in China was better than expected, weaker data in Europe is really disturbing. There is a lot to consider and oil is reacting to the news of the minute. On the geo- political the stakes have been raised in the war against ISIS. The United States along with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Qatar attacked ISIS targets in Syria. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/23/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 23.09.2014
It's Official Autumn Equinox Arrives Today Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the Corn could not hold Runaround Sue or Turnaround Tuesday so far at this juncture. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 329 ½ which is ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 331 to 327 ¾ so far. I don't see any real change in selling pressure at the moment with the National Weather Service 5 day forecast showing weather is not much of a factor at this point. The only other possibility for higher prices is a short-covering rally. ... mehr

China U Turn

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 22.09.2014
Last week China juiced up their banks with 81 billion in a massive stimulus but don't get used to it. Over the weekend China's Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said that China will not make major policy adjustments due to a change in any one economic indicator. These comments have put a damper on global stock markets and have lowered commodity demand expectations just a week after the market was teased into believing that China has already started to ease. Hey wait a minute, they are already easing? Get ready for a rebound. Dow Jones reported that Speculators added fresh wagers on rising crude-oil prices in the week ended Tuesday, according to CFTC data. Hedge funds, pension funds and others added 10,160 new bets on rising prices and slashed 6,876 bets on falling prices. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/22/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 22.09.2014
Autumn Begins as Grains Continue Trade Lower Good Morning! Talking to farmers in northern states that their corn crop is coming in much better than originally feared. Add that to a record crop coupled with a carryover much higher than expected we will see harvest pressure mode for sure. In the overnight electronic session the December contract is currently trading at 329 ½ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 331 ½ to 329 ¼. On the Ethanol front there was one trade posted in the overnight electronic session and that was in the November contract posted a trade at 1.610 which is .01 cent lower. The market is following the lead of other Energies like Crude Oil, Gasoline and the bearishness in Corn market. ... mehr

Buying OPEC Some Time

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 19.09.2014
France launching airstrikes against ISIS and production issues in Libya and Nigeria may buy the cartel some time before having to mandate production cuts. OPEC is feeling the pain of lower prices and Saudi Arabia has already reduced production yet is seems that with demand faltering and the dollar rising prices look to continue lower. While some in the cartel like the OPEC Secretary General have talked about production cuts, the fear is that if the cartel does cut it may do little to raise prices and may only succeed in having some countries losing market share. Part of the reason is the fact that the U.S. is producing the most oil since 1986. Yet global turmoil may support things just enough to buy the cartel time before they have to adjust output. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/19/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 19.09.2014
Grains Continue to Slide Good Morning! Talking with farmers across the country and we are both scratching are heads with the cash market versus the futures. The futures for some reason have not found a reason to bounce. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 337 which is 1 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 338 ¼ to 336 ¾ so far. On the Ethanol front the October contract posted a trade at 1.681 which is .019 cents higher and was the only trade posted in the overnight electronic session. Even after yesterday's selloff I believe this market is still too heavy. ... mehr

The Energy Report - 6 Degrees of Interest Rate Separation

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.09.2014
6 degrees of separation is the theory that everyone and everything is six or fewer steps away, by way of introduction, you can be connected to any other person in the world. It kind of works that way in interest rates as well. What the fed does will impact at least 6 other countries and impact the price of every commodity on the globe. The Fed and the ECB is dominated the mood of energy as currency fluctuations and rate expectations and its potential impact on demand dominated the trading. The soaring dollar seemed to taunt the Fed as the talk about possible rate increases in the future overshadowed the rates low for a " considerable time" comment and highlighted the interest rate divide between the U.S. and Europe. ... mehr

6 Degrees of Interest Rate Separation

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.09.2014
6 degrees of separation is the theory that everyone and everything is six or fewer steps away, by way of introduction, you can be connected to any other person in the world. It kind of works that way in interest rates as well. What the fed does will impact at least 6 other countries and impact the price of every commodity on the globe. The Fed and the ECB is dominated the mood of energy as currency fluctuations and rate expectations and its potential impact on demand dominated the trading. The soaring dollar seemed to taunt the Fed as the talk about possible rate increases in the future overshadowed the rates low for a " considerable time" comment and highlighted the interest rate divide between the U.S. and Europe. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/18/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.09.2014
Grains Still in a Lull Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 340 ¼ which is 1 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 341 ¾ to 340 so far. The market needs some bullish headline to bring in buyers as we head into Autumn next week. On the Ethanol front the October contract is currently trading at 1.710 which is .001 of a cent higher in the overnight electronic session. The trading range has been 1.710 to 1.680 in a market where volume seems to be slowly picking up. ... mehr

The New Phases of the Business Cycle

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 17.09.2014
There is a new phase to the business cycle. Trough, leak information, then print money and modest revovery... Yesterday commodities and stocks came alive after the Wall Street Journal leaked that the Federal Reserve most likely maintains its "considerable time" language in its policy statement. Oil was already in rally mode as OPEC warned of a production cut. I guess the FED must think it is bad form to steal the thunder from China that joined Europe in some QE trying to stop the slowing have been seeing in its economy. Remember when OPEC used to laugh off the shale oil revolution, well they are not laughing anymore. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/07/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 17.09.2014
Fed Meets Today! Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 341 ½ which is 2 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 344 ¼ to 341 ½ so far. Changing weather patterns and cooler overnight temps are a reminder of winter is coming back. We may have a reality check that the Farmer's Almanac predicted of another cold winter. I believe any rally should be sold. On the Ethanol front there were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The October contract settled at 1.844 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.816 and 1 offer @ 1.862. ... mehr

Shoulder Season

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 16.09.2014
Shoulder season, the weak demand period for oil has hit like a vengeance. The Brent Crude fell against the WTI as the demand outlook for the US looks better than the rest of the world. Not even the fact that the US is dropping Bombs in Iraq on ISIS was enough to give the market a geopolitical bounce in a world that seems to be loaded with oil. Uncertainty surrounding the Scotland Independence votes as well as more sanctions on Russian is reducing the demand outlook in Europe. China's demand outlook got wrecked as well after weak industrial data. As we have said before that sanction on Russia is more of a threat to demand than it is to supply. Supplies that are rising because of raising US oil production. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/16/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 16.09.2014
Turnaround Tuesday! Good Morning! In the overnight electronic the December Corn is currently trading at 348 which is 5 cents higher. The trading range has been 350 ½ to 342 ¼ so far. Cooler than norm temps couple with light rains have enticed buyers back to the market. As we head into the weekend we should see the lower temps moderate and see warmer and dryer weather during the overnight and should be conducive to sell ant rallies at this time. ... mehr

Where Is The Demand Going To Come From?

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 15.09.2014
After Chinas Industrial production number hit 12 year low oil traders have to ask themselves where the demand is going to come from. More worries about a slowing global economy and worries that more sanctions on Russia are going to make things worse is adding to the downward pressure on oil. OPEC countries will also start to feel the pain and will cut back not on production but also investment. In the meantime U.S. exports on condensate continue to rise as the U.S. continues to change the energy landscape. While the threat from ISIS continues to grow the market is feeling that rising U.S. production can offset any potential disunion in the future. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/15/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 15.09.2014
Frost Scares Could Start This Week! Good Morning! Farmers are starting out slow this harvest season being a little behind this early. Warmer temperatures will let them play catch up but that is not in the forecast this week. Below normal temperatures are in the prognosticators sights this week with no real let up until the weekend. The below normal temperatures may insight frost scares in the coming days in Corn growing areas. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 336 ½ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 337 ½ to 335 ¾ so far. Let's see if this market can sustain any rally this week. ... mehr

Geo-Political Swings

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 12.09.2014
Geo-politics are once again providing swings in the petroleum sector. Oil prices originally seemed unfazed by President Obama's speech about going after ISIS but seemed to worry after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that if President Obama wanted to go after ISIS in Syria he would need a UN resolution. There is also concern that the coalition that President Obama was hoping to form with Arab nations are not getting the kind of support that he had hoped. While countries like Saudi Arabia are offering some support it is clear that to defeat ISIS it is going to be up to the United States. Experts are saying that it is unlikely that ISIS can be defeated without boots on the ground, an option that President Obama has taken off the table. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/12/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 12.09.2014
Expectations for Record Harvest & Yields Good Morning! Yesterday's report estimated U.S. Corn growers will harvest 14.395 billion bushels versus last month's forecast of 14.032 billion bushels. Average Corn yields were pegged at a record 171.7 bushels per acre up from last month's estimate of 167.4 per acre. These numbers were supplied by Tennille Tracy and Sarah Portlock of Dow Jones Newswires. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 340 ¼ which is ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 343 ¼ to 340 so far. The market should test 315 before bargain hunters come back to play. ... mehr

The War Two Fronts

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 11.09.2014
While President Obama lays out his plan to fight ISIS, OPEC is fighting a war against a growing oil glut. President Obama addressed the nation yet it is still unclear if the President has a plan or is just trying to protect his legacy. The President says that we will degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL yet he talks about coalitions that don't exist and no boots on the ground. The President started the speech by defending his anti-terror credential by reminding us that he " took out Osama bin Laden and much of al Qaeda's leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan". He reminded us that he targeted al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen, and recently eliminated the top commander of its affiliate in Somalia. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/11/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 11.09.2014
In Memoriam to all the Brave Heroes who gave their lives 13 years ago Brave Men and Woman in Uniform who fought to Stamp out the Cowardly terror thugs! Grain and Natural Gas Reports Today Good Morning! This morning at 7:30 A.M. we also have Export Sales and Initial Jobless Claims. The Grain market will focus on the 11:00 A.M. Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand report. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 344 which is 1 ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 345 ½ to 343 ¼ so far. Barring any unforeseen major surprise in the report we should be trading in a sideways to lower mode. ... mehr

The Dominate Dollar

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 09.09.2014
While the fundamentals for petroleum oil are very weak there is more to the markets recent weakness. You can't ignore the impact of the soaring dollar. Commodities across the board are finding it harder to try to establish support as currencies in Europe continue to get crushed. Not only has the Euro, that has been hit by the ECB bank, quantitated easing but the British Pound Sterling that has been rattled with the possibility of Scottish independence. Even with the positive news from an oil demand standpoint that the EU will delay sanctions on Russia as they try to determine that a cease-fire might hold failed to overcome the strength in the dollar. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/09/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 09.09.2014
Torrential Rains, Hail, Tornadoes, Possible Frost and Monthly Grain Reports This Week Good Morning! The headline says it all what we will have to bear this week. Tonight heavy rains start and tomorrow torrential downpours are forecasted with hail and the possibility of tornadoes. Frost conditions after the fact may be another bullish factor not to mention the monthly Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand report. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 345 ¼ which is 3 cents lower. The trading range has been 348 ¼ to 345 so far in somewhat quiet trade. We could see some fireworks during the open out-cry sessions both today and tomorrow. ... mehr

Possible Scotish independence, Pound drops vs. Dollar

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 09.09.2014
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 13 lower at 137’18, the 10 Yr. Note 10 lower at 124’20.5 and the 5 Yr. Note 7 lower at 118’06.5. Rates appear to be starting to edge up as the 10 Yr. yield once again approaches the 2.5% level. We remain spread long the June 2015 Eurodollar/short the June 2017 which has moved a bit in our favor going from 184 premium the June 2015 to 196. Our current objective is 202 premium the June 2015. Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 2’2 lower at 346’0, Nov. Beans 5’4 lower at 1003’0 and Dec. Wheat 4’2 lower at 529’2. We remain long Dec. Corn with a close protective sell stop at 343’0. ... mehr

Demand or Lack There Of

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 08.09.2014
Oil prices are waiting to see if the ceasefire in Ukraine holds and if it will slow the European Union march to sanctions. If the sanctions are imposed it will mean less oil demand in a world where those prospects already shaky. In China the world's behemoth for demand growth saw its trade surplus hit a record high in August as it seems that the domestic economy in China is slowing. In the US a terrible jobs report may coincide with the weaker than expected gasoline demand numbers that we have seen recently. On top of that the market will watch the US attacks on ISIS that may make some worried about the increase threat of terror attacks as we head towards the infamous September 11th attack anniversary. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/08/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 08.09.2014
Harvest Moon is Beautiful Good Morning! We have had some absolutely beautiful weather over the weekend that helped farmers hit the fields. But hold on to your hat, there are forecasts for torrential a downpour come Wednesday. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 352 which is 4 cents lower. The trading range has been 358 to 351 ¾ so far. The rains expected mid-week could spark a short-term rally that will have sellers licking their chops. On the Ethanol front there were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The October contract settled at 2.011 and is showing 2 bids @ 1.991 and 5 offers @ 2.006. ... mehr

Is It Going To Be Enough?

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 05.09.2014
While the ECB and Mario Draghi moved Europe to the "dark side" of extraordinary stimulus already many are asking if it is going to be enough. The ECB lowered its short-term rate to 0.05 percent from 0.15 percent. The central bank also is trying to force Euro's out of the bank vaults by increasing the fee it imposes on banks to store money at the E.C.B., to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent. The central bank also said it will start buying asset-backed securities in an attempt to beef up its balance sheet but the amount was not announced. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/05/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 05.09.2014
UNENJOYMENT FRIDAY! Good Morning! Well we cyphered through all of the news and data yesterday naming Initial Jobless Claims and today we have the monthly Unemployment number. This should have a bearish tone to the Stock Market. On the Corn front weather is the factor that will spike prices in this harvest season with a record bumper crop. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 348 ½ which is 2 cents higher. The trading range has been 353 ¼ to 346 ¾ so far. I still remain in my "sell rallies" mode. ... mehr

Hanging in the Balance

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 04.09.2014
Will they or won't they? That is a question that could apply to a slew of global events that has the energy markets hanging in the balance. Oil Prices are being held hostage to events that has made and will continue to make the market tank or rally depending how they play out. The UK, Russia, Ukraine and even at the NATO summit, the questions are many and at this point the answers are few, but many of those may be answered before the end of today's trading session. On top of that you get the API Jobs Report, The Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status report as well as the natural gas supply report. It is going to be a very action packed day. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/04/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 04.09.2014
NATO Summit-ECB Meeting-All Aboard! Good Morning! The markets are already reacting to Mario Draghi's hint that they may launch a program of asset-backed security purchases which bounced stocks higher and dipped the Euro-Currency. This should be an interesting trading session with the MATO Summit set to begin today as well as all the reports today and of course, the first Friday of the month tomorrow we have the Unemployment number. This morning's reports line up as follows: at 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Balance and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. At 9:30 we have EIA Gas Storage and at 10:00 we have EIA Energy Stocks and at 3:00 P.M. we have Dairy Product Sales. ... mehr

Cease Fire In Ukraine?

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 03.09.2014
Markets were shocked as reports from the Ukraine Presidents Office say that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement on a permanent ceasefire. Yet as soon as we saw swift market action across the board it seems that Russia is downplaying any deal. The possible market changes if a ceasefire actually happens could be significant and we got a taste of what that might look like. For oil it would be bullish initially. A ceasefire would give the Euro-zone economies a much needed boost. Oil got slammed on fears of a Euro-zone deflationary contraction and peace along with some help of QE by Mario Draghi could change the perception of sinking demand expectations. We saw Brent Crude rebound after it hit a 16 month low. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/03/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 03.09.2014
Cease-Fire in the Ukraine? Not According to Russia…… Good Morning! Gee the must be at war.. Hello… Just like the Free World and Isis! Wake Up! An announcement from the office of the Ukraine's president said an agreement was reached with the Russian president on a cease-fire in the eastern Ukraine. This factor has emboldened Crude Oil buyers back to the table. In the overnight electronic session the October contract is currently trading at 9386 which is 98 points higher at this writing. The trading range has been 9394 to 9306 so far. Let's see if this cease-fire will last or if the news is even true. ... mehr

Russia Runs Wild

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 02.09.2014
Aggression by Russia in the Ukraine is taking a back seat to economic weakness in Europe. Deflation fears are being raised again after the European Union's producer price index fell 0.1% from June, and were down 1.1% from July 2014. That confirms data Europe the annual inflation rate fell to 0.3% in August from 0.4% in July which is far below Europe's target rate and raising the possibility the Euro zone deflation and Russian aggression and sanctions could really destroy oil demand. In the Meantime US production booms. The Wall Street Journal reports that in Texas "One of the state's oldest oil fields, the Permian Basin in West Texas, is booming again, thanks to advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 09/02/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 02.09.2014
Hello Dolly! Good Morning! The only activity we see on our radar is Tropical Storm Dolly which looks to make landfall in Southern Texas and or a direct hit in Mexico. There does not seem to be any other Disturbances in the Atlantic at this time. In the overnight electronic session the October Natural Gas is currently trading at 4.013 which is .052 cents lower. The trading range has been 4.078 to 3.983 so far. On the Corn front with rumors of a bigger than expected carryover and with the Corn crop looking outstanding in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin we could see some pressure soon. Too much rain could spark rallies as weather is the focus as we are in the harvest season. ... mehr

Labor Day Oil Rally

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 29.08.2014
Rising risks of conflict in Ukraine and deflation in Europe and the lack of a US strategy against ISIS is setting off an oil rally. Strong GDP data in the United States is a sharp contrast to the economic struggles in Europe that are only going to get worse if there are more sanctions on Russia. Euro zone inflation rose 0.3% as unemployment in the zone is at 11.5%. We saw those worries play out in the Brent versus West Texas Intermediate spread (WTI) spread as the WTI gained on Brent because of increased demand expectations out of the US versus lower demand expectations out of Europe. Brent crude oil also was pressured as Libya is starting to export oil again after almost a year of delays because of Libyan rebels. The tankers filled with light Libyan crude putting further pressure on the spread. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/29/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 29.08.2014
Farmers Holding Back on Last Year's Crop Could Create a Larger Carryover than Previously Thought Good Morning! Talking to sources and farmers alike it looks like we saw some holding back on Corn to induce higher prices and with a record crop anticipated and a lot more carryover we may see due to farmers planting More Corn for the Ethanol Mandate which drove prices to high levels. Now looking at a record crop this squashed higher prices and we may not see that for some time. ... mehr

The Energy Report - You Can't Hack Into Gold

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 28.08.2014
Say what you want about the value of gold as a currency replacement or a safe haven, at least those pesky Russian can't hack into it. The FBI is investigating reports that the Russians hacked into account information at JP Morgan and other US banks perhaps in retaliation for US led sanctions. Gold prices are higher after the hack attack in part because the shorts are getting nervous as geo-political risks are high. Having assets in cash or paper sitting in a bank that may be moved at any minute by some nefarious Russian hack job may be another reason to diversify some of your portfolio into gold. Not to mention that September is a seasonally strong time for gold. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/28/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 28.08.2014
Good Morning! Hurricane Cristobal is heading north as Disturbance number 1 is likely to hit South Texas or Mexico. The second Tropical Wave is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the third Disturbance that has us traders watching is moving off the west coast of Africa. In the overnight electronic session the October Natural Gas is currently trading at 4.000 which is .003 of a cent lower at this writing. The trading range has been 4.028 to 3.991 so far. ... mehr

Energy Policy

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 27.08.2014
President Obama not only sends mixed signals on foreign policy but energy policy as well. On one hand he blocks the Keystone pipeline and a New York Times report that the President is "working to forge a sweeping international climate change agreement to compel nations to cut their planet-warming fossil fuel emissions, but without ratification from Congress." On the other hand the President is also opening up the door to US oil exports and allowing foreign refiners to refine US oil without the EPA's oversight. S&P released a report that the Obama Administration is going to lift the ban. The only thing that the President seems to be consistent on is that he thinks he can do whatever he wants without congressional approval. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/27/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 27.08.2014
Cristobal Sidesteps the Gulf While Natural Gas is ready to Move on Any Disruption Good morning! The fear of Hurricane Cristobal slamming the Gulf of Mexico has subsided as it did an end run and is headed up the eastern seaboard. There are two other Disturbances that are keeping the attention of Natural Gas traders. In the overnight electronic session the October contract is currently trading at 3.987 which is .038 cents higher. The trading range has been 4.000 to 3.965 so far. We are currently trading at big resistance and if these Disturbances have any impact $4 could be in the rear view mirror. ... mehr

The Energy Report - The Winds Are Blowing

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 26.08.2014
Winds of war or maybe just a hard wind blowing near the Ukraine border, Ukraine's state security service said it had detained 10 Russian paratroopers who had crossed into Ukrainian territory from Russia. The Russian say gee, oh gosh, oh golly, it was a mistake and a hard wind just seemed to blow them over the border. As winter approaches and the gas supplies are shut off it appears that petroleum and metals are going to bottom and start turning around. This should make for good conversation as the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin as they are in Belarus at the Minsk summit between the EU and the heads of state of Putin's Customs Union, which includes Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan and if Putin gets his way the Ukraine. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/26/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 26.08.2014
Cristobal Gained Hurricane Status! Good Morning! Cristobal with sustained winds at 65 knots is still a threat to enter the Gulf of Mexico even though the percentages are dwindling as the course of the storm seems to be heading towards the eastern seaboard according to the latest radar data. It may be a near miss and still has Natural Gas traders on edge. In the overnight electronic session the September contract is currently trading at 394 which is .003 of a cent lower. The trading range has been 3.959 to 3.921 so far. Let's see how Cristobal plays out and follow the next Disturbance forming in the Atlantic which could catapult prices above $4. ... mehr

Mario, Janet, François and Angela

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 25.08.2014
Mario, Janet, Francois and Angela all have a hand in moving markets today. First it was Janet Yellen that seemed to be a bit more dovish than some thought in her speech in Jackson Hole. Perhaps she did not want to steal the thunder from the ECB's Mario Draghi that seems to be moving Europe close to quantitative easing. Of course when it comes to magic Mario, does he really have to do anything? His words are mightier than the sword and in the past he has done whatever it takes to save the Euro without really doing anything. The Euro fell and European markets railed as the possibility of more stimuli will give Europe's economy a much needed boost. The Dollar continues its assault on the upside and the stock markets around the globe are in a buy happy mode. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Cprn & Ethanol Report 08/25/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 25.08.2014
Tropical Storm Cristobal is Making Headlines Good Morning! Cristobal is veering to his left and veering to his right like a running back avoiding oncoming tacklers. The latest data and the path of the storm has everybody guessing if it will hit the gulf. It is still putting fear in the Natural Gas traders as the September contract is currently trading at 3.906 which is .066 cents higher. The trading range has been 3.932 to 3.843 so far. There is another storm brewing in the Atlantic and traders attention on focused on these two factors. ... mehr

Overshadowing Janet and Mario

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 22.08.2014
Who thought that anything could over shadow Janet Yellen today? Well leave it to the energy complex. Refining issues and tight supply of distillate will keep oil supported as the rest of the markets focus on Jackson Hole. Talk that Shell Deer Park refinery could be down for months as well as a Bloomberg report that Korea National Oil's "Come by Chance" refinery in province of Newfoundland and Labrador will start shutting down 1st week of Sept. for month of work, caused a spike in RBOB that turn around the oil. Add to that an increasing chance that next week we may be dealing with a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico has energy marching to a different drummer that the rest of the macro-economic focused markets. ... mehr

Decouple?

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 21.08.2014
In the beginning of the financial crisis they were trying to tell us that the sub-prime problems really did not matter and even if it did it was a US problem. They said that even if the US banking system had some issues it was ok because the Europe and China had decoupled from the US and regardless of any problems in the US the rest of the world would be fine. That mindset set the stage for one of the biggest bull-runs in commodity history. As Europe raised rates while the US was lowering rates it created a run on the dollar and a rush out of dollar based assets and after a period of twisted delusions and record rallies we saw an epic commodity crash. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/21/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 21.08.2014
Weather Extremes Again? Here We Go! Good Morning! As we brace for hot and humid weather that we should have expected well before the upcoming Labor Day weekend. The Farmer's Almanac predicted a colder winter and another hotter summer. These extremes are not what the doctor ordered. Grain prices are doing their best to rebound in this oversold market. Fundamentally Wheat should lead the charge which prospects of the Ukraine crop down at least 15% which will have exports picking up. Food for thought in this crazy weather and crazy world we live in. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 360 ¼ which is ¾ of a cent higher. ... mehr

Expiration Hesitation

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 20.08.2014
Oil's slide continue yesterday with Brent crude hitting a new low not seen since June 26 of 2013 but we are seeing oil snapback as we head in to expiration of the Sept WTI. Oil prices that rallied like crazy on geopolitical risk are now collapsing on the reduction of those risks and the surge in supply. Reports that Libya is getting ready to reopen its biggest export terminal and reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to meet in Minsk is reducing the fear that oil supply will be disrupted. ISIS militants are losing more ground in Iraq as US air-strikes are turning the tide. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/20/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 20.08.2014
Corn Prices Continue to Slump Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 360 ¼ which 2 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 362 to 359 ¾ so far. The oversold market is looking for a reason to bounce and just can't seem to find a reason with the weather and now harvest approaching the market just cannot seem to sustain any rally. On the Ethanol front there were no bids in last night's electronic session. The September contract settled at 2.119 as is showing 3 bids @ 2.096 and 1 offer 2.139. ... mehr

ISIS Snap Back

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 19.08.2014
Oil got hit hard as ISIS gets run over. The US air campaign and the Iraqi and Kurdish army has dealt a blow to this repulsive ISIS group that has shown no respect for human dignity and has shown no signs of moral decency. Reports that ISIS lost control of the country's largest dam in Mosul were welcome by bearish oil traders. Not to mention consolatory remarks by none other than Russian President Vladimir Putin and the promise of more oil from Libya was enough to feed the massive sell off. Of course how much of this bounty of bearish news priced into the market. Be on guard for a bounce as the recent drop in oil and products may inspire a bit of bottom fishing. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/19/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 19.08.2014
Weather and Demand Rule the Roost in the Grain Complex Good Morning! As we look ahead to a record Grain crop we have to think what competitors are thinking. Will they hold back at these price levels? Most likely they will. The only good sign I see at the moment is cheaper prices for feed in the Livestock sector. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 358 ¼ which is 2 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 360 ¼ to 356 ½ so far. From here on out the bottom line traders are looking at is exports and weather. ... mehr

Breathing Easier

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.08.2014
Oil pulls back as markets seem to be breathing easier as risk seems to be settling down. On Friday frantic trading ensued as a report taken from a Ukrainian website reported that the Ukraine took out that Russian armored column or part of the convoy that has captured the attention of the world. That report caused a major risk aversion jolt across many markets. Yet those reports were erroneous and peace talks are moving forward and in Iraq al-Maliki stepping aside is taking out the fear premium that we put in on Friday. Foreign ministers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in Berlin and it is being reported that Russia's Sergei Lavrov said no progress had been towards a ceasefire but that all issues related to a Russian humanitarian convoy heading for Ukraine had been resolved. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/18/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.08.2014
CORN PRICES DOWN 13% THIS YEAR! Good Morning! As last week's Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand projected numbers this Corn crop will exceed 14 billion bushels topping last year's harvest. In the overnight electronic session the September contract is currently trading at 369 ½ which is 3 ¾ cents higher. The trading range has been 370 to 365 so far. The market is now bracing for what type of yields the record crop will produce and weather at this time. On the Ethanol front we were quiet once again in last night's action. ... mehr

Shifting Risk

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 15.08.2014
Risks in oil are rapidly changing from risks to supply to risks to demand and now risk to future production projects. Petroleum products already each from sinking demand expectations and reduction of geo-political risk fell hard after reports that the refinery in Coffeyville Kansas might come back on line sooner than anticipated. Oil Futures tried to stay resilient but gave in to weakness after Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said that he had agreed to relinquish power. ... mehr

Winter Is On the Way

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 14.08.2014
The energy markets are signaling that winter is on the way. Not so much by the weather challenged natural gas market that tanked ahead of today's Energy Information Administration report but the traditional widening of the spread of the Heat oil/ ultra- low sulfur diesel over RBOB / gasoline. The move was inspired by yesterday's Energy Information Administration status report that showed demand in general is weakening but distillate demand is the best of a bad bunch. Distillate exports are strong and the expectations are that demand will heat up as farmers get ready to harvest a record corn and soybean crop. Oh yes, and there is that winter thing. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/14/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 14.08.2014
Not Much Upside Momentum Lurking About in an Oversold Corn Market Good Morning! The record Corn crop numbers are in and even with lighter than expected yields buyers just don't seem to be lining up at the table. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 356 ¾ which is 1 ¼ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 358 to 355 so far. Weather is going to the key component in this market at this time. On the Ethanol front activity was quiet with no trades in the front months in the overnight electronic session. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Live Cattle prices begin to stabilize

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 14.08.2014
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 12 higher at 139’27, 10 Yr. Notes 5.5 higher at 126’10 and the 5 Yr. Note 2.5 higher at 119’28.2. Weekly Jobless Claims were up by 21,000 vs. expectations of an increase of 5,000. The long 10 Yr./short Bond spread is currently at 13’16 (we are still in this trade) and has traded as low as 12’26 and as high at 13’21 over the last few sessions. I am also once again watching the long June 2015/short June 2017 Eurodollar spread currently trading at 1.85 premium the June 2015. I am willing to do this spread below the 182 level with a 16 point ($400) risk. ... mehr

The Energy Report - Lucky 13

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 13.08.2014
Brent Crude hits a 13 month low as demand expectations continue to weaken and US military action against ISIS is raising hopes that the terror organization will not be a threat to Iraqi oil interests in the southern part of the country. Word that the US military sent 130 additional advisers to Iraq and a report by the International Energy Agency pressured markets. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki's looks like he lost support to keep power in Iraq as members of his own party abandoned him and Iran congratulated Haider al-badi the new prime minister-designate. ... mehr

Lucky 13

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 13.08.2014
Brent Crude hits a 13 month low as demand expectations continue to weaken and US military action against ISIS is raising hopes that the terror organization will not be a threat to Iraqi oil interests in the southern part of the country. Word that the US military sent 130 additional advisers to Iraq and a report by the International Energy Agency pressured markets. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki's looks like he lost support to keep power in Iraq as members of his own party abandoned him and Iran congratulated Haider al-badi the new prime minister-designate. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/13/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 13.08.2014
Record Corn Bushels With Shortage on Yield Expectations Good Morning! Yesterday's report showed record bushels as many had predicted which put a selling frenzy in an already oversold market. Then when traders digested the yield data they came to the realization that there was value at these lower prices and the market found a temporary bottom. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 359 which is a ½ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 359 ¾ to 355 ½ so far. Now that the August report is in play we will now focus a lot more on weather as we head closer to harvest. ... mehr

Beyond The Risk

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 12.08.2014
Brent crude month hit a 9 month low as oil looks beyond the geopolitical risk into a well- supplied market. Production is up in Iraq, it is up in Libya and up in the United States. The only thing that is not up is oil demand expectations. As we head ever closer to the shoulder season a sense of demand weakness continues to grow. The International Energy Agency (IEA) last month revised down its forecast for growth in China's oil demand in 2014 to 3.3 percent, while weak German business sentiment data released today plays into that weakening demand sensibility. Germanys ZEW index for August fell to 8.6 points down from 27.1 in July. In fact based off the strength in the US stock market the US demand should be a bit better and is another reason why the Brent versus WTI spread is starting to come in. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/12/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 12.08.2014
The Heavy Rains Did Not Stay Mainly In The Plains Good Morning! Going into this report before noon this morning we have had plenty of soil moisture with the rains last night and this morning. I believe it will not change the impact of the data released but could weigh in later in the open out-cry session. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 355 ¾ which is 1 cent lower. The trading range has been 356 to 354 ¾ so far. All hands on deck for the monthly Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand data. ... mehr

Reducing Risk

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 11.08.2014
US air strikes against ISIS and Russia ending war games on the Ukraine border reduced risk across many markets. Gold and bonds slipped and oil hovered as the market adjusted to geopolitical events and how they may play out in the coming days. A cease-fire between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip held leading to hopes of a more stability in the region. Russia and the possibility of a de-escalation of tensions with Ukraine came as welcome news. Russia that last week lashed out with a food import ban now may be pulling back a bit. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report - The Monthly Grain Report Party Starts Tomorrow at 11 O'clock Sharp

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 11.08.2014
Good Morning! The Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand reports that will be released at 11 A.M. C.S.T. should have an impact as this report is technically the last on before harvesting begins. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 352 ½ which is ¾ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 353 to 350 ½. Hot humid weather is expected throughout today with scattered showers during the day and evening hours which should help the crop in most growing areas. Now we should expect a follow-through of cooler than nor temperatures tomorrow as we await the release of the crop data. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Cattle break sharply on Russian actions. Equities rally

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 11.08.2014
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 139’10, 10 Yr. Notes 2 lower at 125’29 and 5 Yr. Notes 0.5 lower at 119’19.0. These markets have been quite volatile (Bonds rallied as high as 140’11 on Friday) as the markets flip-flopped on every bit of news concerning Russia-Ukraine, Iraq, Israel-Gaza hit the market. Yields on the widely watched 10 Yr. Note drop to 2.38% before bouncing back to 2.42%. The market for the moment seems to care more about Russia (sanctions and military games) than the mid-east. ... mehr

Obama Strikes Out

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 08.08.2014
Oil prices are gaining ground as President Obama finally decides to do something about the growing threat from ISIS threat in Iraq. President Obama authorized targeted American airstrikes and air-dropped food and water for tens of thousands trapped on an Iraqi mountain range. The President said that one Iraqi cried to the world there is no one coming to help but today America is coming to help. Better late than never I guess but if President Obama is finally worried enough to act the market viewpoint seems to suggest that things are really spinning out of control. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/08/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 08.08.2014
Isis the Cowardly Thugs on the Move Against Christians Putting Risk On Back in Play Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the Grain Complex is trading a little easier as the market had an initial knee jerk reaction to Putin's tit for tat embargo on U.S. Agricultural products. The September Corn is currently trading at 358 ¼ which is 1 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 359 ½ to 357 so far. With a world gone crazy we will be waiting the outcome of Tuesday's monthly Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand data as we are on the brink of harvesting and football season. ... mehr

The Energy Report - Getting Ready To Snap

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 07.08.2014
Gas demand and Putin snap back as low gas prices spark a demand rebound while Putin declares sanctions on food. The battle between geo-politics and supply and demand continue to move oil and other commodity markets. While oil has seemed to forget about Iraq as oil exports continue, ISIS continues to slaughter Christians and Libyan oil exports continue to disappoint. Yet oil is subdued as oil rig counts are rising around the world bringing relative calm in a scary world. Baker Hughes reports worldwide rig counts are up 246 from a year ago and 110 of those are from the United States. The US and their high yielding oil is the buffer that is shielding the world from an oil price shock and economic sanctions may do enough to destroy demand that could lead to a breakdown in the oil market. ... mehr

Getting Ready To Snap

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 07.08.2014
Gas demand and Putin snap back as low gas prices spark a demand rebound while Putin declares sanctions on food. The battle between geo-politics and supply and demand continue to move oil and other commodity markets. While oil has seemed to forget about Iraq as oil exports continue, ISIS continues to slaughter Christians and Libyan oil exports continue to disappoint. Yet oil is subdued as oil rig counts are rising around the world bringing relative calm in a scary world. Baker Hughes reports worldwide rig counts are up 246 from a year ago and 110 of those are from the United States. The US and their high yielding oil is the buffer that is shielding the world from an oil price shock and economic sanctions may do enough to destroy demand that could lead to a breakdown in the oil market. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/07/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 07.08.2014
Grains Pull Slightly Back After Wednesday Sharp Rally Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the Grains opened unchanged and tried to have a continuation but with news looming of Russian Agriculture embargo Putin is proposing and without the specifics scared off new buyers to the dance floor. It seems Putin has taken a page out of the current administration that he will stomp his feet like a schoolgirl if he does not get his way. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 360 ½ which is 2 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 362 ¾ to 359 ¾ so far. ... mehr

Border Buster

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 06.08.2014
Russian troops are amassing on the Ukraine border and Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens sanctions against the West. Oil and stocks dives as Russian threats drive fears of an economic slowdown in Europe and across the globe. Yet better than expected refinery runs in The American Petroleum Institute Report may indicate slightly better demand than we thought giving some support to a wobbly oil and product market yet reports that the Saudi Arabia's national oil company has cut the official selling price for crude oil sold to Asian buyers for September is signally weak refining margins and soft demand. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/05/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 05.08.2014
Grains Continue Sideways Personality after Yesterday's Rally Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the Grain Complex gave back recent gains with Soybeans leading the charge. The September Corn is currently trading at 356 ¾ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 358 ¼ to 356 so far. Farmers are not liking these price levels at this time. On the Ethanol front we once again had very quiet trade in the overnight electronic session with the September contract currently trading at 2.000 which is .008 of a cent lower with the trading range of 2.001 to 2.000 so far. ... mehr

Total Breakdown

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 05.08.2014
Stability In the stock market and rising geopolitical risk is keeping oil from totally breaking down. Even with the cease fire in Gaza, gains by ISIS in the Kurdish region in Iraq and Russian troops again amassing by the Ukrainian border is giving oil some support. Yet with falling refining margins and maintence season ahead refinery demand for oil is about to cool off. Oil is trying to ignore geopolitical headlines. While Israel and Hamas agreed to a 72-hour cease-fire in Gaza easing momentum but yesterday reports of Russia adding battalions near the border with Ukraine and conducting war games by the border is creating unease. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/05/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 05.08.2014
Grains Continue Sideways Personality after Yesterday's Rally Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the Grain Complex gave back recent gains with Soybeans leading the charge. The September Corn is currently trading at 356 ¾ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 358 ¼ to 356 so far. Farmers are not liking these price levels at this time. On the Ethanol front we once again had very quiet trade in the overnight electronic session with the September contract currently trading at 2.000 which is .008 of a cent lower with the trading range of 2.001 to 2.000 so far. ... mehr

The Energy Report - Banco Bailout

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 04.08.2014
After global stock markets took a hit after a sub-par jobs reports and worries about Argentina and Portugal's banking system a bailout of Banco Espirito Santo is giving global markets a bit of a lift. The Wall Street Journal reported that "Portugal's central bank late Sunday unveiled a plan to rescue the country's second-largest lender by breaking up the bank and pumping in billions of euros of state money. The fate of Banco Espírito Santo SA is surprising given that only a few weeks ago the Bank of Portugal said the lender had enough capital to withstand shocks coming from its parent, a Luxembourg-based conglomerate that ran into trouble after an auditor found accounting irregularities. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/04/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 04.08.2014
Grains Pick Up Steam before Harvest Pressure Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the Grain complex rebounded from the recent lows put in. The September Corn is currently trading at 356 ¼ which is 3 ¾ cents higher. The trading range has been 356 ¼ to 351 ½ so far. This might just be the range bound bounce traders were expecting before the onslaught of trading a harvest pressure market. On the Ethanol front the market was extremely quiet in last night's action. The September contract posted a trade at 2.003 which is unchanged. ... mehr

Correction Time

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 01.08.2014
Geopolitical and macro-economic worries are starting to take its toll on markets as we get ready to access the big jobs report. Weakening demand for US oil and products might have been an early warning sign to stock traders that wiped out all of the years gains on a slew of fears that ranged from the Argentina default, tanking shares in Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo after they reported a big loss, sanctions on Russia that will take a toll on global economic growth. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 08/01/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 01.08.2014
Monthly Unemployment Data Today As the Dow Continues to Plummet Good Morning! In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 355 ¾ which is 1 ¼ cent lower. The trading range has been 358 ¾ to 355 ¼. The market is waiting for another headline and we may get some movement after this morning's economic numbers are released. On the Ethanol front the September contract is currently trading at 1.989 which is .004 of a cent lower in the overnight electronic session. The trading range has been 1.991 to 1.989 so far. Once again the activity is very light in this market. ... mehr

Not Very Demanding

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 31.07.2014
Oil prices are taking a hit as demand worries are starting to take its toll on the energy complex. Not only did we see weak demand in yesterday's Energy Information Administration weekly report economic slowdown fears are taking hold. The US GDP was not all it was cracked up to be. Even after beating the street with 4 percent growth number high inventories in the report is leading to speculation that we will see downward revisions in the future. On top of that EU and U.S. sanctions on Russia are now being viewed by the market as being a bigger risk to demand for oil than supply. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/31/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 31.07.2014
CRUDE OIL BELOW $100 a Barrel! Woo Hoo! Good Morning! I would love to start out talking about the Corn market this morning but with geo-political events and politics at home I be remiss if I did not start off on the Crude Oil market. With sanctions put on Russia for their cowardly actions in the Ukraine the market is seeing demand destruction at this point. The market will seek fair value sooner or later even with the failure of this current administration to embrace the Energy boom that could also be a staging ground for American jobs and point the economy in the right direction. ... mehr

The Nemenoff Report - Argentina defaults. Bonds, equities, gold, eurofx all lower.

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 31.07.2014
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 28 lower at 136’20, 10 Yr. Notes 10 lower at 124’11 and 5 Yr. Notes 5 lower at 118’21. Weekly Jobless Claims this morning were in the range of expectations being up by 23,000. Yesterday the FOMC left rates unchanged, continued paring the monthly purchase of Bonds and mortgage backed securities by 10 billion and signaled an end to quantitative easing down the road. We remain spread long 10 Yr. Notes/short Bonds which is finally a few ticks our way trading at 12’08 premium the Bonds. Yesterday’s support level of 137’18 in the Bonds has been handily broken. Of note: Argentina defaults for the second time in 13 years. ... mehr

Take That Comrade

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 30.07.2014
The EU and the US are slapping sanctions on Russia and the trade is trying to calculate the hit on the global economy. The sanctions are supposed to target "key sectors" of Russia's economy like banking, defense and most importantly energy. While many feel the impact is priced in and that the sanctions might have been tougher the oil markets act like it will be a negative on economic growth. While the EU tried to avoid the gas industry as a target they still have to be concerned that Russia may try to cut off gas supply as we get closer to winter. The EU is still dependent on Russia for trade and about one-third of their energy supplies and Russia is dependent on the money it gets from the EU. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/30/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 30.07.2014
Oil Inventories on the Decline! According to API Good Morning! API saw a bigger draw of oil inventories than we anticipated. The EIA will release these numbers at 9:30 this morning. The API data showed draws of 4.4 million barrels when we were expecting a draw of 3 million. Products added a measly 100 thousand barrels of Gasoline and ½ million barrels of Distillates when we were looking for builds in the 2 million barrel range. In the overnight electronic session the September Crude Oil is currently trading at 10135 which is 38 points higher. ... mehr

Russian Sanction Fears Weigh On Oil

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 29.07.2014
BP is warning that Russian sanction might have an adverse effect on their bottom line not to mention the global economy as well. As Europe seems to be slipping back into deflation war worries continue to support oil and are widening the Brent/ WTI spread this morning. The spread is killing European refining margins and the US will continue to refine at a record pace as long as the spread and cheap shale oil continue to offer the US an advantage. This comes as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reports that the annual rate of inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in June, but in the Group of 20 leading developed and developing economies it fell to 2.9% from 3.0% raising the specter of inflation and increasing the odds for some European stimulus. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/29/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 29.07.2014
Another Disturbance Forming in the Atlantic! Good Morning! Today we will start in the Natural Gas arena as the news of this disturbance that is 1000 mile west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is becoming better defined and could make and impact on Natural Gas prices. The shower and thunderstorm activity continues to gradually organize, a tropical depression could form during the next day or so while the system moves westward or west-northwest at 10-15 mph. This has a 70% chance of forming in the next 48 hours according to the National Hurricane Center. We are rolling over to the September Natural Gas as the August contract moves closer to expiration. The September contract is currently trading unchanged at 3.765 in the overnight electronic session as I write. The trading range has been 3.778 to 3.744 so far. Traders and producers alike will be monitoring the events of this storm. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/28/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 28.07.2014
Good Morning! TO CEASE FIRE OR NOT TO CEASE FIRE THAT IS THE QUESTION This Monday morning we will start off with the Crude Oil market. In the overnight electronic session the September contract is currently trading at 10176 which are 33 points lower at this writing. The trading range has been 10210 to 10139 so far. At this time the market is not overreacting to events in Libya and now we have proof that Russia has directly engaged Ukrainian troops. This is a direct violation of what the Russian government told us of their involvement. ... mehr

Gas Price Break

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 28.07.2014
Record US refining run is driving down gas prices even as oil prices rise due to geopolitical risk. The Lundberg survey shows that gas prices have fallen 9 cents a gallon in the last 2 weeks. Lundberg says that the average price for regular gasoline at U.S. pumps dropped 9.04 cents in the two weeks to $3.5795 a gallon the lowest level since March 21. What we are seeing is the benefit of US shale oil starting to take hold. Abundant supply of cheap high yielding oil is allowing producers to produce gas at a record pace. This has provided a buffer to a price shock that might have occurred with all of the geopolitical issues the world has had to deal with. ... mehr

The Energy Report - How US Oil Production Is Calming the Global

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 25.07.2014
While the world is in geopolitical turmoil somehow financial markets are subdued. While many credit the Fed and their easy money policies another main component of this calm in the face of multiple storms is the rise of the US oil producer. Soaring US oil production has allied fears that these many geo-political hotspots could cause oil price shock that could drive the world into a deeper recession. Somewhat quietly as the market worried about wars in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine the US energy industry was making history. Soaring US oil production has eased fears that that these many geo-political hotspots could cause oil price shock that could drive the world into a deeper recession. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 007/25/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 25.07.2014
Good Morning! Mother Nature Rules the Roost With Grid Iron weather in the month of July the Grain Complex is looking like it is ready for harvest pressure early much to the chagrin of most traders and farmers alike. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 358 ¾ which is 2 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 363 to 358 ½ so far. With the current 10 day weather forecast it would be a tough case to release the bulls unless we realize an unforeseen stretch of damaging rain and hail to damage the crop. ... mehr

Air Risk

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 24.07.2014
A day after Ukraine accused Russia of shooting down Ukrainian warplanes and after the downing of a Malaysian passenger plane another plane has gone missing. Reports overnight that Spain's Swiftair lost contact with an Airbus A320 plane that had 116 people aboard en route from Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso in Africa to Algiers may bring terror premium back into the market. Gold which had been selling off after Asian markets railed after strong Chinese data are bounced off lows the nervousness regarding the Swiftair incident. Oil price are backing off after yesterday's supportive Energy Information Administration report. Copper popped up on Chinese data. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/24/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 24.07.2014
Good Morning! TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NO LONGER A THREAT The second storm of the Hurricane season has dissipated into a Tropical wave. With the EIA Gas Stocks due out at 9:30 CST this morning and average builds guesstimated on the street average about builds of 96 bcf. In the overnight electronic the August contract is currently trading at 3.778 which is .016 cent higher. The trading range has been 3.780 to 3.744 so far. ... mehr

Refining Madness!

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 23.07.2014
If the American Petroleum Institute is any indication refiners continue to refine oil into product at a record pace. Cheaper domestic and higher yielding oil are leading to high margins for refiners that keep them running at a historic pace. What is more that even with that record pace the draw on US inventories are not as big as some people feared as US oil production is almost keeping up with the refiners frantic pace. We saw the market play out those fears on a wild August crude oil expiration that swung wildly on fears that tight supply in Cushing Oklahoma may make it that supply in Cushing Oklahoma may make it tougher for some refiners as the competition for Midwest crude supply is heating up. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/23/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 23.07.2014
Good Morning! Weather Continues to be the Driving Force in the Grain Complex! Hot weather the past two days turns into autumn like weather to day after the rains last night. In the month of July? In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 360 which is ¼ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 361 to 359 ¼ and could be ready for a further break to the downside. ... mehr

Cushion in Cushing

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 22.07.2014
August crude is going off with a bang as violence in the Gaza strip and fears of Russian sanctions is coming ahead what some people fear will be a big drop in Cushing Oklahoma supply. Cushing Oklahoma of course is the delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate contract and we saw August crude go on a tear as some must fear a mini squeeze play. The market reacted in part to a Genscape report that said that supply at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the U.S. crude contract fell by more than 900,000 barrels. That raised concerns about the availability of deliverable supply. This comes as Midwest Refinery runs climbed to 16.6 million bpd last week, the most ever in the weekly Energy Information Administration data going back to 1989. ... mehr

The Dan FLynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/22/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 22.07.2014
Good Morning! Halt on Grain Slid for Now! In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 365 ½ which is 1 ½ cent higher. The trading range has been 366 to 363 so far. Weather is still a factor as we have severe thunderstorms forecasted tonight which will bring in cooler weather following this current heat dome and could bring unseasonable cooler temperatures for the next five days. On the Ethanol front there were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The August contract settled at 2.080 and is showing a wide spread of 2 bids @ 2.069 and 5 offers @ 2.095. ... mehr

Sanctions and Backlash

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 21.07.2014
Global markets are weak as the combination of increasing calls for tough sanctions on Russia and heavy fighting between Israel and the Palestinians is adding uncertainty to global economic outlook. The evidence is mounting of Russia's involvement in the missile strike that brought down the Malaysia Airlines flight that killed 298 people. The anger level and outrage makes it very likely that there will be even more sanctions leveled against Russia and Putin's' billionaire buddies. Also reports that 13 Israeli soldiers were killed and 96 Palestinians in heavy fighting is keeping Mideast tensions high. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/21/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 21.07.2014
Good Morning! The Great Slide continues in Corn and Natural Gas! Even with hot humid weather moving in the bears are pushing the pedal to the metal again. In the overnight electronic session the August contract is currently trading at 3.855 which is .096 cents lower. The trading range has been 3.893 to 3.844 so far. On the Corn front the slide is in this market as well with ideal weather forecasted for the crop this week has the September contract currently trading at 365 ½ which is 5 ¾ lower in the overnight electronic session. The trading range has been 369 to 365 so far. ... mehr

The Energy Report - Barbaric

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.07.2014
Oil is rising as geopolitical risk came back in the most horrendous way. The shooting down of an unarmed passenger plane with a surface to air missile could raise the tensions in Ukraine to a whole new level. All 298 souls aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 were killed. Oil had the biggest increase in a month and gold, wheat, bonds, rice spiked only to pull back. The market already elevated on new US and EU sanctions on Russia tried to level off but comments by the Feds James Bullard about a "bond bubble" and later news out of Israel is putting risk premium that was taken out back in. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/18/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.07.2014
Good Morning! Better Weather on the Way! Warmer temperatures may help carve a path to cheaper prices in the Grain complex. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 3791/4 which is ¼ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 381 ¼ to 378 so far. The 5-day weather forecast outlook should be ideal growing weather for Corn at this stage of the season. On the Ethanol front there were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The August contract settled at 2.110 and is showing 1 bid @ 2.105 and 2 offers @ 2.134. ... mehr

The Energy Report - Russian Sanctions

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 17.07.2014
The EU and US followed through and hit Russia with more sanctions in response to the trouble that they are causing in Ukraine. The sanctions on Russia may start to bite and are already impacting many stock and commodity markets across the board. Palladium was notable as it hit the highest level since 2001 after concerns that sanctions on the world's number 1 producer might impact exports of a commodity where supply is already tight due to labor strife in South Africa. ... mehr

The Energy Report - China Bounce

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 16.07.2014
Oil is rebounding on a drawdown in US supply and strong Chinese data upping what had been weakening demand expectations out of the world's second largest economy. Not to mention the EU most likely putting new sanctions on Russia and no cease-fire in the Gaza strip. China's GDP came in at a better than expected 7.5 percent in the second quarter, above the average guess for a 7.4 percent increase. We saw Chinese industrial output rise 8.8 percent year on year in the January-June period, accelerating from an 8.7-percent increase in the first quarter. In June, output rose 9.2 percent, marking the fastest growth in the year. ... mehr

The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report 07/16/2014

Dan Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 16.07.2014
Good Morning! Where is the Next Great Sale? If you are looking at the Grains and pondering prices as we are realizing unseasonable cool temperatures that are forecast to leave by weeks end bringing warmer temperatures and more moisture. The Grain complex is flexing the bull muscles but with the extended forecast could run out of steam. The market at the end of the day will look at what was grown and yields that is produced. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 378 ½ which is 4 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 379 ¼ to 373 ¾ so far. Technically the market needs to punch through 380 and if possible I would sell 390. ... mehr

Libyan Oil

Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 15.07.2014
One of the reasons oil saw a historic sell off was the promise that Libya would soon be exporting oil. Can we count on Libyan oil? Oil prices reversed higher yesterday after a report that said that the UN was pulling its staff out of the country. Heavy fighting in Benghazi and Tripoli closed down the airport. Bottom line if Libya does not export oil as expected than we could see oil recovery back towards $104 basis WTI. On top of that the nuclear talks in Iran are not going so good. It seems that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei does not want to give up his nuclear ambitions. ... mehr