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The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 27.03.2014

Financials: June Bonds are currently 5 higher at 133’24 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 123’22.5. The long 10 Yr./ short Bond spread is now trading at 10’01 premium the Bonds putting current losses at $1500. I’m going to stay with the spread for the moment ,but, will have an exit strategy next week if the spread does not bounce back by at least 10-15 points.

Grains: May Corn is currently 1’2 higher at 485’6, May Beans 7’0 higher at 1443’4 and May Wheat 3’4 lower at 692’6. We are currently on the sidelines. The early estimates for Monday’s grain report are as follows:
Acreage: Corn 92.748 million acres, Beans 81.075, Wheat 56.277.
Stocks: Wheat1.042, Corn 7.099, Beans 0.989.

Cattle:June LC are currently slightly lower at 137.55 and May FC 22 higher at 179.35. Yesterday the market saw nearby contracts of LC rally sharply as cash prices were reported trading above 150.00. Cosequently we have been stopped out of any remaining short June LC positions. We remain long the May FC 168.00 put which now have little value. Yesterday we took some profits on the June Hog 120.00 put by either liquidating or rolling the position into the 116.00 put at 115 points or better early in the session.

Silver: May Silver is currently 11 cents lower at 19.67 and June Gold 6.5 dollars lower at 1297.00. We remain long Silver with a minmal position having been stopped out of additional purchases in the 20.50 area when the market traded below 19.87. We remain long Gold with a protective sell stop in the 1292.00 area.

S&P's: June S&P’s are currently 1.00 lower at 1841.50. If you went short yesterday in 1867-1872.00 resistance area (the high was 1868.75) either take profits or lower your buy stop to the 1854.00 level. Support of 1842 has been broken with an overnigh low of 1839.25 putting support in the 1834.00 area. If the market trades below 1835.00 lower your buy stop to the 1846.00 area.

Currencies: As of this writing the June Euro is currently 25 lower at 1.3764, the Swiss 12 lower at 1.1299, the Yen 18 lower at 0.9784 and the Pound 55 higher at 1.6619. If you remain short the Euro from the 1.3825 area, either take profits or lower your buy stop to the 1.3810 area. If the market trades below 1.3732 lower your stop by 20 points. My attention is now turning towards the Pound which I feel is now getting a bit pricey. I will be looking to the short side of the Pound above the 1.6780 level if the market allows.

Regards,
Marc

Marc Nemenoff
Senior Market Analyst, Price Futures Group
888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

Bio
Marc Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Tabor Grain Co. He quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market, and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the C.M.E. and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations and Advertising, and Orientation and Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included, Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc has also been author of the Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction.

Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL.. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Disclaimer
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