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The Bond Bulletin - Technical support and weak data trigger massive Treasury buying
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - Bonds - 30.07.2010
Bonds and notes soared into the weekend as traders squared their short positions and speculative longs entered in anticipation of further economic deterioration. In early morning trade, equities struggled to find footing but even after an impressive rally back to unchanged, Treasuries failed to counter-act the move. Bond and note traders couldn't seem to "get over" the sharp decline in second quarter GDP. After previously revised growth rate of 3.7%, the advanced GDP fell to 2.4%. Analysts were expecting 2.5% but the contrast in the figures are a bit startling and leaves many wondering if this is a blip or a trend. As always, bond traders are looking at things with a glass half empty mentality. Subtracting from the concerns of the pessimistic were better than expected posts on the Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. However, You wouldn't have known it by looking at a Treasury quote board. Bonds and notes rallied from our 126ish support, despite the fact that we were fooled into thinking prices would see a little lower before reversing. However, now that the tides have turned we can't help but look for 130 and maybe even 131 if stocks weaken. If you are trading the 10-year note, this equates to 124'10 and maybe even 125ish. Sorry so short, enjoy the weekend! * Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software. **Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action. 
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations **There is unlimited risk in naked option selling. Flat Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations **There is unlimited risk in trading futures. Flat Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
DeCarleyTrading.com
CarleyGarnerTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701 *Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely. About the Author:
Carley Garner - Senior Market Analyst and Broker, Stocks & Commodities Magazine Columnist and Author - Carley Garner is a Magna Cum Laude graduate of the University of Nevada Las Vegas, from which she earned dual bachelor’s degrees in both Finance and Accounting. Carley jumped into the options and futures industry with both feet in early 2004 and has become one of the most recognized names in the business. Throughout her fast paced career, Carley has been featured in the likes of Stocks and Commodities, Futures, Active Trader, Option Trader, Your Trading Edge, and Pitnews Magazine. Carley is often interviewed by news services such as Reuters and Dow Jones Newswire, and has been quoted by the Investor’s Business Daily and the Wall Street Journal. She has also been known to participate in Radio interviews. Carley's book titled “Commodity Options” was published by FT Press, a division of Prentice Hall, and is now available through all major book outlets. She has recently completed her second book, which is slated to be available in early 2010. Her e-newsletters The Stock Index Report and the Bond Bulletin are widely distributed and have garnered a loyal following; she is also proactive in providing free trading education, for details visit http://www.carleygarnertrading.com/. To register for a complimentary subscription to her daily newsletters, the Stock Index Report and the Bond Bulletin, visit www.DeCarleyTrading.com! There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. |
