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The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 30.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’22 higher at 128’18. This mornings report on 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.4% versus an expectation of 2.5%. In the first quarter the economy grew by 3.7% revised from 2.7%, but growth estimates going back as far as 2007 have been revised to lower numbers. This overal revision of data over the past 3 years showed that the exit from the economic slump started in 2007 was weaker than anticipated. As an economist friend of mine likes to say “ Economists have predicted 11 out of the last 7 recessions”. This saying, I assume, also goes for recoveries. My basic gut feeling is to once again look to the short side of the market now that the yield on the 30 Yr. is once again under 4.00% and the yield on the 10 Yr. below 3.00% but I am going to risk erring on the side of caution and stay on the sidelines. Near term resistance is now the 129’12 level and longer term resistance could be as high as the 132’00 level. Grains: Yesterday Nov. beans were 10 cents higher, Dec. Corn 3 higher and Dec. Wheat 12 higher. Over night Beans were 7 higher, Corn 2 higher and Wheat 9 higher. If you remain long beans raise your protective sell stop to 12 cents above your entry level or take profits. If you are long Dec. Corn raise your protective sell stop to 12 cents above your entry level or take profits. These market should find some “psychological” resistance at 1000’0 in Nov. Beans and 400’0 in Dec. Corn. We remain long out of the money call spreads in Dec. Corn. Cattle: Yesterday Live and Feeder Cattle closed 50-80 lower depending on the contract month. If you remain short Oct. Cattle continue to use a protective buy stop at 95.20. If the market trades below the 93.00 level (currently 93.30) lower your buy stop to the 94.80 level. Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 22 cents higher at 17.84. We remain long the Dec. 20/22 call spread. S&P’s: Sept. S&P’s are currently 4.00 lower at 1093.00. The market has recovered about two thirds of its early morning loss after the release of the GDP data. We remain short the Sept. 1140 call and will look to cover this position at 8.00 if the market allows over the next few sessions as time decay should start to come into play. Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 55 lower at 1.3020, the Swiss 7 higher at .9603, the Yen 41 higher at 1.1548 and the Pound 9 higher at 1.5624. As I mentioned yesterday, bottom line, my short bias to the Euro and the Swiss is not working. My recommended buy stop for short positions in the Swiss (recommendation from 7/28 was a buy stop at .9630) was pentrated and I recommend taking the loss on this position. As for positions of either long puts or short calls in the Euro I am willing to give them a bit more time to see if the market can work a bit lower now that the 1.3100 level has been tested. I will however be looking for an opportunity to exit this trade on a sharp (200 point) break. Regards,
Marc Marc Nemenoff
888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com Bio
Marc Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Tabor Grain Co. He quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market, and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters. In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the C.M.E. and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations and Advertising, and Orientation and Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included, Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool. In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options. Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc has also been author of the Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL.. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009. Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy. Disclaimer
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. The Price Futures Group, Inc., its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options |
