Daily Fundamental Analysis - European Issues Reignite
bforex Research - Forex - 08.09.2010
With summer almost in the rear view mirror and investors returning from the Labor Day holiday, the USD gained against the EUR and GBP swiftly. There was no major data from the U.S. on Tuesday, but risk sentiment took a hit as market participants returning to their desks were struck with various news accounts internationally that Greece and Ireland are once again being confronted with debt issues. The Germany Factory Orders numbers were published yesterday and turned in a poor result of minus -2.2% compared to the estimated gain of 0.6%. The U.K. will lead the data parade today with Manufacturing Production and the Halifax HPI. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - European Issues Reignite
bforex Research - ltfutures - 08.09.2010
With summer almost in the rear view mirror and investors returning from the Labor Day holiday, the USD gained against the EUR and GBP swiftly. There was no major data from the U.S. on Tuesday, but risk sentiment took a hit as market participants returning to their desks were struck with various news accounts internationally that Greece and Ireland are once again being confronted with debt issues. The Germany Factory Orders numbers were published yesterday and turned in a poor result of minus -2.2% compared to the estimated gain of 0.6%. The U.K. will lead the data parade today with Manufacturing Production and the Halifax HPI. ... mehr

Daily Technical Forex Analysis - Intra-day Moves
bforex Research - Forex - 07.09.2010
USDCHF: We often mention the need to perform multiple time frame analysis regardless of the time frame you reside to trade on. The daily chart on the CHF indicated that the CHF had been ranging. Using horizontal trend line support and resistance on the four hour chart, as shown by the green lines, we can see that occur. At the point where resistance is broken, as indicated by the blue arrow we see the CHF bottom fall out. The move reversed itself when it hit sloped trend line resistance near the two blue arrows. Since that point traders have been playing the bounce as the CHF trends lower. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Forex Analysis - The Return Of The Americans
bforex Research - Forex - 07.09.2010
A flat day of trading pervaded the broad markets globally on Monday with the Americans absent because of the Labor Day holiday. There was little in the way of economic data released too, and this helped make for a cautious day of movement. Today will remain fairly light with statistics as Germany releases its Factory Order figures, but both the U.K. and U.S. essentially will be muted with data. Yesterday the U.K. did release its BRC Retail Sales Monitor and it produced a mark of 1.0%, which was an improvement over the previous month. However, the number was basically unspoken about. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Intra-day Moves
bforex Research - ltfutures - 07.09.2010
USDCHF: We often mention the need to perform multiple time frame analysis regardless of the time frame you reside to trade on. The daily chart on the CHF indicated that the CHF had been ranging. Using horizontal trend line support and resistance on the four hour chart, as shown by the green lines, we can see that occur. At the point where resistance is broken, as indicated by the blue arrow we see the CHF bottom fall out. The move reversed itself when it hit sloped trend line resistance near the two blue arrows. Since that point traders have been playing the bounce as the CHF trends lower. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - The Return Of The Americans
bforex Research - ltfutures - 07.09.2010
A flat day of trading pervaded the broad markets globally on Monday with the Americans absent because of the Labor Day holiday. There was little in the way of economic data released too, and this helped make for a cautious day of movement. Today will remain fairly light with statistics as Germany releases its Factory Order figures, but both the U.K. and U.S. essentially will be muted with data. Yesterday the U.K. did release its BRC Retail Sales Monitor and it produced a mark of 1.0%, which was an improvement over the previous month. However, the number was basically unspoken about. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Dollar Trades Weaker; Which Pairs Are Ready To Breakout?
bforex Research - Forex - 06.09.2010
EURUSD: The EUR closed on Friday exactly at near term Resistance, at 1.2894. Obviously a close higher would provide added support to this EUR rally. The EUR has also closed up four consecutive sessions, something it failed to do in any material way since the EUR touched a low near 1.19. Although the EUR is currently trading above it’s 50 day moving average it is not doing so in a decisive manner. Thus a close above near term Resistance coupled with a close decisively higher than the 50 MA should have the EUR targeting the 200 day moving average and mid term Resistance at 1.33. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Test Of Ranges Today
bforex Research - Forex - 06.09.2010
The week will start on a quiet note because of the Labor Day holiday in the States. Before going into the weekend mixed data surrounded investors once again and gave both bulls and bears more reasons to foster a debate. While the Non Farm Employment Change numbers were better than expected, the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI was disappointing. Also making some news was the U.K’s negative Services PMI report and lackluster Retail Sales figures from Europe. Today will be very light with data. The U.K. will publish its BRC Retail Sales Monitor and the Bank of Japan will begin to hold its monthly monetary policy meetings. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Dollar Trades Weaker; Which Pairs Are Ready To Breakout?
bforex Research - ltfutures - 06.09.2010
EURUSD: The EUR closed on Friday exactly at near term Resistance, at 1.2894. Obviously a close higher would provide added support to this EUR rally. The EUR has also closed up four consecutive sessions, something it failed to do in any material way since the EUR touched a low near 1.19. Although the EUR is currently trading above it’s 50 day moving average it is not doing so in a decisive manner. Thus a close above near term Resistance coupled with a close decisively higher than the 50 MA should have the EUR targeting the 200 day moving average and mid term Resistance at 1.33. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Test Of Ranges Today
bforex Research - ltfutures - 06.09.2010
The week will start on a quiet note because of the Labor Day holiday in the States. Before going into the weekend mixed data surrounded investors once again and gave both bulls and bears more reasons to foster a debate. While the Non Farm Employment Change numbers were better than expected, the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI was disappointing. Also making some news was the U.K’s negative Services PMI report and lackluster Retail Sales figures from Europe. Today will be very light with data. The U.K. will publish its BRC Retail Sales Monitor and the Bank of Japan will begin to hold its monthly monetary policy meetings. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Good Day For Risk Management
bforex Research - Forex - 03.09.2010
The USD traded in range yesterday as the broad markets turned in tentative results as investors await today’s Non Farm Employment Change numbers from the States. The weekly Unemployment Claims almost hit the estimated mark head on Thursday, but the Factory Orders in the U.S. were weaker. Today’s jobless number is forecasted to be minus -101k, slightly better than the previous month’s (if job loss can be called better). Investors will be primed for any surprises, but taking into context that we are entering a holiday weekend in the States the question may become – who will be around to take advantage of the outcome? ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Good Day For Risk Management
bforex Research - ltfutures - 03.09.2010
The USD traded in range yesterday as the broad markets turned in tentative results as investors await today’s Non Farm Employment Change numbers from the States. The weekly Unemployment Claims almost hit the estimated mark head on Thursday, but the Factory Orders in the U.S. were weaker. Today’s jobless number is forecasted to be minus -101k, slightly better than the previous month’s (if job loss can be called better). Investors will be primed for any surprises, but taking into context that we are entering a holiday weekend in the States the question may become – who will be around to take advantage of the outcome? ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Mixed Data Abounds
bforex Research - Forex - 02.09.2010
USD The markets showed just how divergent they can be on Wednesday. Wall Street finished the day with large gains, supposedly based on the positive numbers coming from the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The USD traded weaker against the EUR before this data had come out however, and the greenback managed to still gain against the GBP. Also flying in the face of the better than expected Manufacturing report was a worse than expected ADP Non Farm Employment Change. In other words yesterday’s gains on Wall Street must be looked at with suspicion. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - The Next Few Days May Determine True USD Strength
bforex Research - Forex - 02.09.2010
EURUSD: The EUR has been consolidating below the 50 day moving average, after breaking below it, 2 weeks ago. It seemed unable to sustain a close above 1.27 and it could not close above it’s 100 day MA as well. However, Yesterday’s price action finally lifted the EUR across its 100 day MA as it closed right at the 50 MA. If the EUR can follow yesterday’s price action with another win, especially above 1.29 then the EUR will look to extend it’s gains over the short term. However, if the EUR falls back below the 100 MA, then a bearish EUR sentiment will remain intact. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Mixed Data Abounds
bforex Research - ltfutures - 02.09.2010
USD The markets showed just how divergent they can be on Wednesday. Wall Street finished the day with large gains, supposedly based on the positive numbers coming from the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The USD traded weaker against the EUR before this data had come out however, and the greenback managed to still gain against the GBP. Also flying in the face of the better than expected Manufacturing report was a worse than expected ADP Non Farm Employment Change. In other words yesterday’s gains on Wall Street must be looked at with suspicion. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - The Next Few Days May Determine True USD Strength
bforex Research - ltfutures - 02.09.2010
EURUSD: The EUR has been consolidating below the 50 day moving average, after breaking below it, 2 weeks ago. It seemed unable to sustain a close above 1.27 and it could not close above it’s 100 day MA as well. However, Yesterday’s price action finally lifted the EUR across its 100 day MA as it closed right at the 50 MA. If the EUR can follow yesterday’s price action with another win, especially above 1.29 then the EUR will look to extend it’s gains over the short term. However, if the EUR falls back below the 100 MA, then a bearish EUR sentiment will remain intact. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - ISM Data Could Provide Surprises
bforex Research - Forex - 01.09.2010
USD The USD traded in range against the EUR on Tuesday and managed to gain a bit versus the GBP. Trading remained rather tentative as the U.S. produced a mixed bag of data for investors to study before the onslaught of jobless releases gets underway today. While the SP/CS Composite-20 HPI and the CB Consumer Confidence readings both bettered their estimates, the Chicago PMI Index came in worse. Today the ADP Non Farm Employment Change number is on the calendar and is expected to have an outcome of 20k. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Forex
bforex Research - Forex - 01.09.2010
GOLD: We have commented before that Gold is trading the technicals perfectly. When Gold stumbled in late July it originally fell through its 50 day moving average and eventually its 100 day MA. Gold found Support at a key Fibonacci Retrace level near 1,160 which also coincided with mid term Support as shown by the black horizontal line. Gold then bounced off Support and yesterday’s price action saw it take out key Resistance just above 1,240. That breach of Resistance suggests Gold will attempt to break it’s all time high and then accelerate even higher before once again retracing. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - ISM Data Could Provide Surprises
bforex Research - ltfutures - 01.09.2010
USD The USD traded in range against the EUR on Tuesday and managed to gain a bit versus the GBP. Trading remained rather tentative as the U.S. produced a mixed bag of data for investors to study before the onslaught of jobless releases gets underway today. While the SP/CS Composite-20 HPI and the CB Consumer Confidence readings both bettered their estimates, the Chicago PMI Index came in worse. Today the ADP Non Farm Employment Change number is on the calendar and is expected to have an outcome of 20k. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Forex
bforex Research - ltfutures - 01.09.2010
GOLD: We have commented before that Gold is trading the technicals perfectly. When Gold stumbled in late July it originally fell through its 50 day moving average and eventually its 100 day MA. Gold found Support at a key Fibonacci Retrace level near 1,160 which also coincided with mid term Support as shown by the black horizontal line. Gold then bounced off Support and yesterday’s price action saw it take out key Resistance just above 1,240. That breach of Resistance suggests Gold will attempt to break it’s all time high and then accelerate even higher before once again retracing. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Commodity Currency Update
bforex Research - Forex - 31.08.2010
AUDUSD: After Oil prices fell sharply over the last week, the AUD followed suit. However, the AUD found Support at the bottom of the major moving averages, near the 100 MA. It has since bounced higher. Price action over the next few day will be critical as the AUD has formed a Step pattern whereby lower highs and lower lows have formed (see chart below). If price closes below Support, it will not only be below the major moving averages but it will validate the Step pattern and likely cause prices to fall further. However, if price can close back above Resistance at .9050 price action will likely look to retest the initial high of the Step pattern near .9200. ... mehr

Economic Concerns = Caution
bforex Research - Forex - 31.08.2010
USD The USD continued its strong pace against the EUR and GBP on Monday as it moved to the stronger parts of it recent range. Safe haven pressure was the story of the day as Wall Street struggled and all the major indexes suffered losses. The U.S. released light data yesterday including Personal Spending and the results were near expectations. The gist of the day belonged to the languishing sentiment that has carried over from the negative opinions that have been expressed much of August. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Economic Concerns = Caution
bforex Research - ltfutures - 31.08.2010
USD The USD continued its strong pace against the EUR and GBP on Monday as it moved to the stronger parts of it recent range. Safe haven pressure was the story of the day as Wall Street struggled and all the major indexes suffered losses. The U.S. released light data yesterday including Personal Spending and the results were near expectations. The gist of the day belonged to the languishing sentiment that has carried over from the negative opinions that have been expressed much of August. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Summer Trading Will Soon End
bforex Research - Forex - 30.08.2010
Friday came and went with all the force of a feather. The currencies and the broad markets traded in rather tight ranges most of the day putting into focus the amount of caution that prevails and the fact the summer is still in force. The USD found itself going into the weekend with plenty of its gains made the previous two weeks – holding. The Preliminary GDP results from the U.S. were unspectacular as they basically hit their targets. Ben Bernanke followed the statistics up with a couple of pronouncements at a central bankers meeting by stating the obvious, ... mehr

Summer Trading Will Soon End
bforex Research - ltfutures - 30.08.2010
Friday came and went with all the force of a feather. The currencies and the broad markets traded in rather tight ranges most of the day putting into focus the amount of caution that prevails and the fact the summer is still in force. The USD found itself going into the weekend with plenty of its gains made the previous two weeks – holding. The Preliminary GDP results from the U.S. were unspectacular as they basically hit their targets. Ben Bernanke followed the statistics up with a couple of pronouncements at a central bankers meeting by stating the obvious, ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - GDP Reports & Central Bankers
bforex Research - Forex - 27.08.2010
The USD traded in range against the major currencies for much of Thursday as traders became increasing cautious due to the data scheduled for today and news events that may unfold too. While the weekly Unemployment Claims turned in a slightly better figure than expected it was certainly not rosy and continues to show that the jobless situation may be actually worsening. Today the U.S. will release its Preliminary GDP and a figure of only 1.5% is expected. The U.K. will also be publishing its Revised GDP report today. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - GDP Reports & Central Bankers
bforex Research - ltfutures - 27.08.2010
The USD traded in range against the major currencies for much of Thursday as traders became increasing cautious due to the data scheduled for today and news events that may unfold too. While the weekly Unemployment Claims turned in a slightly better figure than expected it was certainly not rosy and continues to show that the jobless situation may be actually worsening. Today the U.S. will release its Preliminary GDP and a figure of only 1.5% is expected. The U.K. will also be publishing its Revised GDP report today. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Bad Data Becoming The Norm
bforex Research - Forex - 26.08.2010
USD Additional poor data was reported from the U.S. on Wednesday as the New Home Sales completely missed its estimate. The outcome of 276k was far short of the 333k expectation. And troubling to investors was that the previous month’s total was revised downwards too, following in the footsteps of the Existing Home Sales data reported a day earlier. Topping off this wreckage were ugly Core Durable Goods Orders which came in with a number of minus -3.8% compared to the forecast of plus 0.6%. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - A Macro Perspective On the Dollar’s Rally
bforex Research - Forex - 26.08.2010
USDCAD: We found this chart to be quite interesting. We are using a weekly chart below and what we clearly see is the range the CAD has been trading versus the Greenback. On a daily chart you can get a better sense of volatility but this weekly chart shows that in fact this pair has gone no where. However, the CAD’s recent weakness has brought it to a key Support level. A solid close above Support will likely have the CAD testing major Support on the daily at 1.0850 which is also currently coinciding with the 200 day MA on the weekly chart. One last note here, when the CAD has lost 3 weeks in a row it has always been followed by at least a fourth with one exception over the last 2 years. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Bad Data Becoming The Norm
bforex Research - ltfutures - 26.08.2010
USD Additional poor data was reported from the U.S. on Wednesday as the New Home Sales completely missed its estimate. The outcome of 276k was far short of the 333k expectation. And troubling to investors was that the previous month’s total was revised downwards too, following in the footsteps of the Existing Home Sales data reported a day earlier. Topping off this wreckage were ugly Core Durable Goods Orders which came in with a number of minus -3.8% compared to the forecast of plus 0.6%. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - The Dollar Rally According To Fibonacci
bforex Research - Forex - 25.08.2010
EURUSD: The EUR closed below both the 100 day and 50 day moving averages. The candle that caused the fall also initially broke below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retrace level. This level is generated by using the low of 2010 followed by the recent high at 1.33. Yesterday’s price action bounced off the 50% Retrace level before actually pushing the EUR higher on the day. The next several days will be crucial in determining the direction of the EUR over the short run. The 50 MA is poised to cross above the 100 MA which provides support for the EUR to again move higher. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Data Confirms Doubts
bforex Research - Forex - 25.08.2010
USD Existing Home Sales in the U.S. plunged according to Tuesday’s report and this confirmed ‘whispers’ that had surrounded the number before its release. The USD traded in a stable manner against the EUR and GBP yesterday and held onto its gains made earlier. Wall Street declined before the issue of the housing figures and equities essentially moved cautiously thereafter. Today New Home Sales statistics will be published and an outcome of 333k is anticipated. Also Core Durable Goods Orders will be brought forth, but investors will keep their eyes glued on the housing sector data. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - The Dollar Rally According To Fibonacci
bforex Research - ltfutures - 25.08.2010
EURUSD: The EUR closed below both the 100 day and 50 day moving averages. The candle that caused the fall also initially broke below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retrace level. This level is generated by using the low of 2010 followed by the recent high at 1.33. Yesterday’s price action bounced off the 50% Retrace level before actually pushing the EUR higher on the day. The next several days will be crucial in determining the direction of the EUR over the short run. The 50 MA is poised to cross above the 100 MA which provides support for the EUR to again move higher. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Data Confirms Doubts
bforex Research - ltfutures - 25.08.2010
USD Existing Home Sales in the U.S. plunged according to Tuesday’s report and this confirmed ‘whispers’ that had surrounded the number before its release. The USD traded in a stable manner against the EUR and GBP yesterday and held onto its gains made earlier. Wall Street declined before the issue of the housing figures and equities essentially moved cautiously thereafter. Today New Home Sales statistics will be published and an outcome of 333k is anticipated. Also Core Durable Goods Orders will be brought forth, but investors will keep their eyes glued on the housing sector data. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Sector Woes In Focus
bforex Research - Forex - 24.08.2010
USD Continuing its strong run under a haze of nervous trading in equities the USD propelled to higher values against the EUR and GBP. The greenback is starting to approach its spring time values against both the currencies as risk adverse movement has taken hold. The U.S. didn’t release major data on Monday, but today Existing Homes Sales figures are on schedule and investors have been warned that housing sector numbers may prove ugly. The estimated outcome is 4.68m, which would be well below the previous month’s result of 5.37m. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Sector Woes In Focus
bforex Research - ltfutures - 24.08.2010
USD Continuing its strong run under a haze of nervous trading in equities the USD propelled to higher values against the EUR and GBP. The greenback is starting to approach its spring time values against both the currencies as risk adverse movement has taken hold. The U.S. didn’t release major data on Monday, but today Existing Homes Sales figures are on schedule and investors have been warned that housing sector numbers may prove ugly. The estimated outcome is 4.68m, which would be well below the previous month’s result of 5.37m. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - The Picture Can Change When Price Intercepts A Moving Average Cross
bforex Research - Forex - 23.08.2010
EURUSD: After falling through 1.29 six days ago the EUR has failed to generate a close back above that level after several attempts. The EUR has found short term Support at the 100 day moving average as price action on Friday bounced off that level. However, a close below the 50 day MA may have the EUR testing lows near 1.2550. Yet, the 50 day MA is upward sloping and poised to cross above the 100 MA. If that occurs and the 50 day MA acts as EUR Support, it may provide the necessary momentum to keep EUR bulls in the game and push the EUR back above Resistance at 1.30. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Safe Haven Trading In Vogue
bforex Research - Forex - 23.08.2010
USD With little in the way of data and only existing sentiment to trade on the USD moved to the stronger realms of its value on Friday against the EUR and GBP. Wall Street continued to turn in lackluster results and the greenback seemingly found safe haven backing before going into the weekend. The question hovering over investors internationally is what the impact from another economic downturn in the U.S. will cause. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - The Picture Can Change When Price Intercepts A Moving Average Cross
bforex Research - ltfutures - 23.08.2010
EURUSD: After falling through 1.29 six days ago the EUR has failed to generate a close back above that level after several attempts. The EUR has found short term Support at the 100 day moving average as price action on Friday bounced off that level. However, a close below the 50 day MA may have the EUR testing lows near 1.2550. Yet, the 50 day MA is upward sloping and poised to cross above the 100 MA. If that occurs and the 50 day MA acts as EUR Support, it may provide the necessary momentum to keep EUR bulls in the game and push the EUR back above Resistance at 1.30. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Safe Haven Trading In Vogue
bforex Research - ltfutures - 23.08.2010
USD With little in the way of data and only existing sentiment to trade on the USD moved to the stronger realms of its value on Friday against the EUR and GBP. Wall Street continued to turn in lackluster results and the greenback seemingly found safe haven backing before going into the weekend. The question hovering over investors internationally is what the impact from another economic downturn in the U.S. will cause. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Cautious And Nervous Market
bforex Research - Forex - 20.08.2010
The USD turned in a fairly stable day taking into consideration that Wall Street tumbled on bad data. The day was highlighted by a bad Philly Fed Manufacturing Index outcome of minus -7.7 compared to the forecasted positive number of 7.1. In other words, manufacturing sentiment nearly fell off a cliff in the past month. This was underscored by another disappointing weekly Unemployment Claims result which posted a figure of 500k compared to the estimate of 478k. The combination of these two numbers was a tough body blow to the side of traders and brought out the bears in the equity markets. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Cautious And Nervous Market
bforex Research - ltfutures - 20.08.2010
The USD turned in a fairly stable day taking into consideration that Wall Street tumbled on bad data. The day was highlighted by a bad Philly Fed Manufacturing Index outcome of minus -7.7 compared to the forecasted positive number of 7.1. In other words, manufacturing sentiment nearly fell off a cliff in the past month. This was underscored by another disappointing weekly Unemployment Claims result which posted a figure of 500k compared to the estimate of 478k. The combination of these two numbers was a tough body blow to the side of traders and brought out the bears in the equity markets. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Weekly Unemployment Claims Today
bforex Research - Forex - 19.08.2010
USD The USD bounced back in value on Wednesday as the broad markets remained cautious particularly without much economic data on the calendar. The greenback pushed the EUR and GBP back to lower realms and is now near short term highs against both currencies. Wall Street turned in miniscule gains and continues to give the impression that it is merely treading water as it waits for impetus. Today the weekly Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reading will be released. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Weekly Unemployment Claims Today
bforex Research - ltfutures - 19.08.2010
USD The USD bounced back in value on Wednesday as the broad markets remained cautious particularly without much economic data on the calendar. The greenback pushed the EUR and GBP back to lower realms and is now near short term highs against both currencies. Wall Street turned in miniscule gains and continues to give the impression that it is merely treading water as it waits for impetus. Today the weekly Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reading will be released. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Commodity Currency Update
bforex Research - Forex - 18.08.2010
AUDUSD: The AUD is still trending up but with embedded high volatility. On its recent pullback it found support at it’s 200 day moving average which also coincided with trend line Support (see blue arrow). The 50 day MA is upwards sloping and is positioning itself to cross the the 100 MA. That cross would lend added support to the AUD move north. However, a break back below trend line Support and the 200 day MA would signal a potential bearish sentiment. NZDUSD: The NZD clearly broke below trend line Support (see blue arrow). ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Day Of Positioning Ahead
bforex Research - Forex - 18.08.2010
There will be very little data released today internationally. The U.S. will bring forth Crude Oil inventories and the U.K. will be publishing its MPC Meeting Minutes. The USD traded in a rather broad range against the EUR and GBP on Tuesday as it showed some initial weakness, but made a comeback by the end of the day. Wall Street did gain, but the action in equities will not be enough to get most investors excited about long term prospects. Tomorrow the U.S. will release weekly Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reading. The U.K. will release Retail Sales numbers also on Thursday. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Commodity Currency Update
bforex Research - ltfutures - 18.08.2010
AUDUSD: The AUD is still trending up but with embedded high volatility. On its recent pullback it found support at it’s 200 day moving average which also coincided with trend line Support (see blue arrow). The 50 day MA is upwards sloping and is positioning itself to cross the the 100 MA. That cross would lend added support to the AUD move north. However, a break back below trend line Support and the 200 day MA would signal a potential bearish sentiment. NZDUSD: The NZD clearly broke below trend line Support (see blue arrow). ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Day Of Positioning Ahead
bforex Research - ltfutures - 18.08.2010
There will be very little data released today internationally. The U.S. will bring forth Crude Oil inventories and the U.K. will be publishing its MPC Meeting Minutes. The USD traded in a rather broad range against the EUR and GBP on Tuesday as it showed some initial weakness, but made a comeback by the end of the day. Wall Street did gain, but the action in equities will not be enough to get most investors excited about long term prospects. Tomorrow the U.S. will release weekly Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reading. The U.K. will release Retail Sales numbers also on Thursday. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - An Autumn Of Discontent?
bforex Research - Forex - 17.08.2010
USD The USD lost some ground to the EUR and GBP as rather tentative trading took place across the broad marketplace. Participants seemed content to range trade on Monday as rather lackluster data from the States again was published. The Empire State Manufacturing Index turned in a reading of 7.1, which was a full point below the expectation of 8.1. The NAHB Housing Market Index also turned in a negative mark of 13, below the estimate of 15. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - An Autumn Of Discontent?
bforex Research - ltfutures - 17.08.2010
USD The USD lost some ground to the EUR and GBP as rather tentative trading took place across the broad marketplace. Participants seemed content to range trade on Monday as rather lackluster data from the States again was published. The Empire State Manufacturing Index turned in a reading of 7.1, which was a full point below the expectation of 8.1. The NAHB Housing Market Index also turned in a negative mark of 13, below the estimate of 15. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Sector Data This Week
bforex Research - Forex - 16.08.2010
USD The USD found a slew of backers as the week ended on risk adverse trading. Investors taking a defensive posture continued to pick up steam as the weekend approached due to rather lackluster Retail Sales. Both the Core and broad figures for the Retail Sales missed their prospective marks slightly and this continued to cast a shadow over Wall Street which saw the major indexes finish off meekly. The USD picked up considerable ground against both the EUR and GBP last week essentially slashing much of the gains that the Sterling and the Single Currency had made in recent weeks. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Will The Dollar Rally Last?
bforex Research - Forex - 16.08.2010
EURUSD: For the first time since the EUR rally began in early June, the EUR has fallen hard through trend line Support. We know that major Resistance sat at 1.30, however, when the EUR fell through trend line Support it triggered stops below 1.30 and has been unable to recover thus far. The EUR, on Friday’s price action fell below the 100 day MA. If the 50 MA (currently at 1.2650) which is upwards sloping, manages to cross the 100 MA then Support for the EUR rally should remain intact. If the 50 MA fails to cross the 100 MA and also fails to act as Support then the EUR will most likely begin to consolidate around 1.24. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Will The Dollar Rally Last?
bforex Research - ltfutures - 16.08.2010
EURUSD: For the first time since the EUR rally began in early June, the EUR has fallen hard through trend line Support. We know that major Resistance sat at 1.30, however, when the EUR fell through trend line Support it triggered stops below 1.30 and has been unable to recover thus far. The EUR, on Friday’s price action fell below the 100 day MA. If the 50 MA (currently at 1.2650) which is upwards sloping, manages to cross the 100 MA then Support for the EUR rally should remain intact. If the 50 MA fails to cross the 100 MA and also fails to act as Support then the EUR will most likely begin to consolidate around 1.24. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Sector Data This Week
bforex Research - ltfutures - 16.08.2010
USD The USD found a slew of backers as the week ended on risk adverse trading. Investors taking a defensive posture continued to pick up steam as the weekend approached due to rather lackluster Retail Sales. Both the Core and broad figures for the Retail Sales missed their prospective marks slightly and this continued to cast a shadow over Wall Street which saw the major indexes finish off meekly. The USD picked up considerable ground against both the EUR and GBP last week essentially slashing much of the gains that the Sterling and the Single Currency had made in recent weeks. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Dollar On The Cusp Of A Comeback?
bforex Research - Forex - 12.08.2010
EURUSD: After struggling to cross major Resistance at 1.30, the EUR after a week and half retreated back below 1.30. The EUR will look to find Support at the 100 day MA. However, a solid close below that level will likely put the EUR on its heels. If however, the EUR can find Support at the 100 day MA, EUR bulls will wait for a close back above recent highs at 1.33. Lastly, yesterday’s price action took the EUR below trend line Support and that will certainly happen during a bull run, but an extended break below trend line support often hints at possible weakness starting to build in. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Dollar On The Cusp Of A Comeback?
bforex Research - ltfutures - 12.08.2010
EURUSD: After struggling to cross major Resistance at 1.30, the EUR after a week and half retreated back below 1.30. The EUR will look to find Support at the 100 day MA. However, a solid close below that level will likely put the EUR on its heels. If however, the EUR can find Support at the 100 day MA, EUR bulls will wait for a close back above recent highs at 1.33. Lastly, yesterday’s price action took the EUR below trend line Support and that will certainly happen during a bull run, but an extended break below trend line support often hints at possible weakness starting to build in. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Uncertain Global Economies
bforex Research - ltfutures - 12.08.2010
USD Wednesday proved that risk appetite clearly can be taken off the table quickly. The USD gained versus the EUR and GBP, as its stable performance the past couple of days grew into strong momentum. This took place as investors proved that they were shaken by the Fed’s FOMC Statement, and the combination of prior lackluster data, that seems to point to an American economy that at best will struggle to remain stable – and in a worst case scenario could wobble back into recession. Wall Street suffered steep declines across the major indexes and its effect on traders was rapid worldwide. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Modest Recovery, Perhaps
bforex Research - Forex - 11.08.2010
USD The USD continued to trend slightly stronger versus the EUR and GBP on Tuesday as the marketplace became cautious across the board. Market participants largely waited for the FOMC to issue its statement late in the day and this had a rather negative effect on international equities as investors worldwide seemed to express sentiment that the Federal Reserve is essentially between a rock and a hard place. The Fed surprised no one when it said it would keep interest rates at historic lows and foresees the policy as long lasting. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - What Fibonacci Says About the USD & The EUR
bforex Research - Forex - 11.08.2010
Fibonacci lines often generate the most heated discussions amongst traders. There are those that swear by them and those that claim the by-product is more haphazard and or random than predictive. If you are not familiar with Fibonacci it is worth a read. To briefly summarize Fibonacci’s theory, it states that numbers have a relationship and therefore generate a pattern of behavior which can be observed and predicted. GBPUSD: Using the Fibonacci Retrace tool, we have drawn a line from the 2009 high to the 2010 low. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Uncertain Global Economies
bforex Research - Forex - 11.08.2010
USD Wednesday proved that risk appetite clearly can be taken off the table quickly. The USD gained versus the EUR and GBP, as its stable performance the past couple of days grew into strong momentum. This took place as investors proved that they were shaken by the Fed’s FOMC Statement, and the combination of prior lackluster data, that seems to point to an American economy that at best will struggle to remain stable – and in a worst case scenario could wobble back into recession. Wall Street suffered steep declines across the major indexes and its effect on traders was rapid worldwide. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Modest Recovery, Perhaps
bforex Research - ltfutures - 11.08.2010
USD The USD continued to trend slightly stronger versus the EUR and GBP on Tuesday as the marketplace became cautious across the board. Market participants largely waited for the FOMC to issue its statement late in the day and this had a rather negative effect on international equities as investors worldwide seemed to express sentiment that the Federal Reserve is essentially between a rock and a hard place. The Fed surprised no one when it said it would keep interest rates at historic lows and foresees the policy as long lasting. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - What Fibonacci Says About the USD & The EUR
bforex Research - ltfutures - 11.08.2010
Fibonacci lines often generate the most heated discussions amongst traders. There are those that swear by them and those that claim the by-product is more haphazard and or random than predictive. If you are not familiar with Fibonacci it is worth a read. To briefly summarize Fibonacci’s theory, it states that numbers have a relationship and therefore generate a pattern of behavior which can be observed and predicted. GBPUSD: Using the Fibonacci Retrace tool, we have drawn a line from the 2009 high to the 2010 low. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Double Dip Implications
bforex Research - Forex - 10.08.2010
USD A quiet day of economic releases greeted traders returning from the weekend, but the USD did manage to pick up some of its lost ground versus the GBP and EUR. Wall Street was slightly positive by day’s end, but it was evident that any investors who were sitting on the fence previously remained firmly in place yesterday. Today the Federal Reserve will publish its FOMC Statement and many questions abound. The San Francisco Fed last night warned that the U.S. economy faces a risk of falling into another recession. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Gold, Risk And The Currency Markets?
bforex Research - Forex - 10.08.2010
GOLD Just a week and half ago Gold look poised to test the 200 day moving average. However, after 8 straight sessions in the black, Gold retook the 100 day MA and has now tested the 50 day MA twice on intra day moves before closing lower. Gold is bid aggressively during times of economic uncertainty. If Gold can get a solid close above the 50 MA, it will likely, once again retest all time highs. If however, Gold fails to retake the 50 day MA it will most likely retest the 200 day MA near 1,155. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Double Dip Implications
bforex Research - ltfutures - 10.08.2010
USD A quiet day of economic releases greeted traders returning from the weekend, but the USD did manage to pick up some of its lost ground versus the GBP and EUR. Wall Street was slightly positive by day’s end, but it was evident that any investors who were sitting on the fence previously remained firmly in place yesterday. Today the Federal Reserve will publish its FOMC Statement and many questions abound. The San Francisco Fed last night warned that the U.S. economy faces a risk of falling into another recession. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Gold, Risk And The Currency Markets?
bforex Research - ltfutures - 10.08.2010
GOLD Just a week and half ago Gold look poised to test the 200 day moving average. However, after 8 straight sessions in the black, Gold retook the 100 day MA and has now tested the 50 day MA twice on intra day moves before closing lower. Gold is bid aggressively during times of economic uncertainty. If Gold can get a solid close above the 50 MA, it will likely, once again retest all time highs. If however, Gold fails to retake the 50 day MA it will most likely retest the 200 day MA near 1,155. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Momentum, How Far To Ride It?
bforex Research - Forex - 09.08.2010
OIL After struggling for nearly two months to break above Resistance at 79 and break free of the 100 day MA, Oil seems to be under some downwards pressure once again. On the lower half of the chart below we added a Relative Strength Index (RSI), which essentially tries to pinpoint the strength of momentum relative to the current price. When the RSI is downward sloping and crosses below 55 momentum is clearly weakening. From a pure price technical perspective a close below the candle that originally thrusted Oil over Resistance would generate a cautionary bias. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Dollar Slides Again
bforex Research - Forex - 09.08.2010
USD The USD lost ground to the EUR again on Friday as the jobless data from the U.S. showed that not all is well with the American economy. The Non Farm Employment Change numbers came in with a disappointing result of minus -131k nearly doubling the estimated loss of minus -63k. Equally disturbing for investors will be the downward revision from the previous month, which now appears to have been minus – 221k. These numbers were enough to put a scare into Wall Street which promptly turned south and produced a decline before going into the weekend. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Dollar Slides Again
bforex Research - ltfutures - 09.08.2010
USD The USD lost ground to the EUR again on Friday as the jobless data from the U.S. showed that not all is well with the American economy. The Non Farm Employment Change numbers came in with a disappointing result of minus -131k nearly doubling the estimated loss of minus -63k. Equally disturbing for investors will be the downward revision from the previous month, which now appears to have been minus – 221k. These numbers were enough to put a scare into Wall Street which promptly turned south and produced a decline before going into the weekend. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Momentum, How Far To Ride It?
bforex Research - ltfutures - 09.08.2010
OIL After struggling for nearly two months to break above Resistance at 79 and break free of the 100 day MA, Oil seems to be under some downwards pressure once again. On the lower half of the chart below we added a Relative Strength Index (RSI), which essentially tries to pinpoint the strength of momentum relative to the current price. When the RSI is downward sloping and crosses below 55 momentum is clearly weakening. From a pure price technical perspective a close below the candle that originally thrusted Oil over Resistance would generate a cautionary bias. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Job Creation In Doubt
bforex Research - Forex - 06.08.2010
The USD remained in a faithful range on Thursday setting the path for the always important Non Farm Employment Change numbers today. Trading across the board yesterday proved to be cautious. The U.S. did release weekly Unemployment Claims and this proved disappointing with an outcome of 479k, which exceeded the estimate of 456k. The result from the weekly jobless claims did not put any cheer into the viewpoint that the U.S. economy is anemic. Wall Street has been relatively flat all week as it has turned in lackluster trading and volume. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Job Creation In Doubt
bforex Research - ltfutures - 06.08.2010
The USD remained in a faithful range on Thursday setting the path for the always important Non Farm Employment Change numbers today. Trading across the board yesterday proved to be cautious. The U.S. did release weekly Unemployment Claims and this proved disappointing with an outcome of 479k, which exceeded the estimate of 456k. The result from the weekly jobless claims did not put any cheer into the viewpoint that the U.S. economy is anemic. Wall Street has been relatively flat all week as it has turned in lackluster trading and volume. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Moving Average Crosses – Dollar May Slide Further
bforex Research - Forex - 05.08.2010
USDCAD The CAD had finally crossed below important Resistance at the 100 day moving average. In addition, the 50 day moving average just crossed back below the 200 day MA providing extra momentum for price appreciation. Yesterday’s close finished exactly at the prior low. A close below that low at 1.0178 coupled with the major MA cross should give the CAD the necessary push to make another run at Dollar parity. GOLD Gold has just completed a quick and significant turn around as it retraced recent losses. ... mehr

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Weekly Unemployment Claims On The Calendar
bforex Research - Forex - 05.08.2010
USD By the end of Wednesday the USD began to recover some of its lost value against the EUR and GBP. The day will not be remembered as a volatile one, but the greenback did bounce back proving that a one way avenue did not exist. The ADP Non Farm Employment Change data was released and produced a better than expected outcome of 42k compared to the estimate of 38k. The result will not set off music for investors, but some will grasp at anything optimistic within reach. Today the weekly Unemployment Claims will be brought forth and the numbers are expected to almost match last week’s. ... mehr

Daily Technical Analysis - Moving Average Crosses – Dollar May Slide Further
bforex Research - ltfutures - 05.08.2010
USDCAD The CAD had finally crossed below important Resistance at the 100 day moving average. In addition, the 50 day moving average just crossed back below the 200 day MA providing extra momentum for price appreciation. Yesterday’s close finished exactly at the prior low. A close below that low at 1.0178 coupled with the major MA cross should give the CAD the necessary push to make another run at Dollar parity. GOLD Gold has just completed a quick and significant turn around as it retraced recent losses. ... mehr