 The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 09.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 131’18. This morning’s weekly Jobless Claims Report showed a decline in weekly claims of 27,000 versus expectations of a decline of 2,000. Trade Deficit was $42.788 billion versus a pre-report estimate of $47 billion. The reaction was an immediate break to the 131’08 level before rallying back to the current level. Near term support is currently this mornings low of 131’08 and resistance remains at 133’12. Treat as a trading market between support and resistance. I am on the sidelines. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 09.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 131’18. This morning’s weekly Jobless Claims Report showed a decline in weekly claims of 27,000 versus expectations of a decline of 2,000. Trade Deficit was $42.788 billion versus a pre-report estimate of $47 billion. The reaction was an immediate break to the 131’08 level before rallying back to the current level. Near term support is currently this mornings low of 131’08 and resistance remains at 133’12. Treat as a trading market between support and resistance. I am on the sidelines. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 08.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 132’20. Near term support remains at 131’18 and near term resistance at 133’12 (last evening’s high). Treat as a trading market between support and resistance.
Grains: Yesterday Beans closed 17 cents higher, Corn 1+ higher and Wheat 6 lower. Over night Beans were unchanged, Corn fractionally lower and Wheat 3 lower. If you remain long Dec. Corn either take profits or continue to use a protective sell stop at 451’0. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 08.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 132’20. Near term support remains at 131’18 and near term resistance at 133’12 (last evening’s high). Treat as a trading market between support and resistance.
Grains: Yesterday Beans closed 17 cents higher, Corn 1+ higher and Wheat 6 lower. Over night Beans were unchanged, Corn fractionally lower and Wheat 3 lower. If you remain long Dec. Corn either take profits or continue to use a protective sell stop at 451’0. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 07.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 28 higher at 132’11. The long Dec. 10 Yr. Note/ short Dec. Bond spread is currently at 7’26, up from last Friday’s 6’29 early in the session after the Employment Report. We have liquidated this spread pretty much at the price the trade was originally put on depending on when you initiated the position after sitting with a loss for a few weeks. Near term support is currently 131’18 and near term resistance 133’12. Treat as a trading market between support and resistance. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 07.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 28 higher at 132’11. The long Dec. 10 Yr. Note/ short Dec. Bond spread is currently at 7’26, up from last Friday’s 6’29 early in the session after the Employment Report. We have liquidated this spread pretty much at the price the trade was originally put on depending on when you initiated the position after sitting with a loss for a few weeks. Near term support is currently 131’18 and near term resistance 133’12. Treat as a trading market between support and resistance. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 03.09.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’29 lower at 130’20. This mornings Employment Report showed a decline in non-farm payrolls of 54K versus expectations of a decline of 120K. The market movement speaks for itself, the report was favorable for the economy and negative to Bonds. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 6’29 premium the Bonds. I recommend liquidating this spread position and standing aside until next week. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 03.09.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’29 lower at 130’20. This mornings Employment Report showed a decline in non-farm payrolls of 54K versus expectations of a decline of 120K. The market movement speaks for itself, the report was favorable for the economy and negative to Bonds. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 6’29 premium the Bonds. I recommend liquidating this spread position and standing aside until next week. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 02.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 132’27. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’06 premium the Bonds on the Dec. contract. A liitle history on this trade: We are currently losing about $1000 since we originally put this spread on a few weeks ago in Sept. contract and then rolling it into Dec. This mornings weekly report on Initial Unemployment Claims showed a decline of 7,000 versus a pre-report estimate of down 3,000. This is not exactly good news for the economy but better than expected. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 132’08 and resistance 134’06. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 02.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 132’27. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’06 premium the Bonds on the Dec. contract. A liitle history on this trade: We are currently losing about $1000 since we originally put this spread on a few weeks ago in Sept. contract and then rolling it into Dec. This mornings weekly report on Initial Unemployment Claims showed a decline of 7,000 versus a pre-report estimate of down 3,000. This is not exactly good news for the economy but better than expected. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 132’08 and resistance 134’06. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 01.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1’02 lower at 133’31. Some constructive Global economic news out of China and Australia have rallied equities and consequently set the Bonds back this morning. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread has narrowed some 20 points this morning putting the spread at 8’25 premium the Bonds. Tomorrow will be the weekly Unemployment Report and Friday the monthly Jobs Report. The ADP Private Sector Jobs Report was -10k well below the expected +17K, ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 01.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1’02 lower at 133’31. Some constructive Global economic news out of China and Australia have rallied equities and consequently set the Bonds back this morning. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread has narrowed some 20 points this morning putting the spread at 8’25 premium the Bonds. Tomorrow will be the weekly Unemployment Report and Friday the monthly Jobs Report. The ADP Private Sector Jobs Report was -10k well below the expected +17K, ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 31.08.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 higher at 134’23. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 9’02 premium the Bonds. This puts the current loss on the spread from the initial trade in the Sept. contract at about $2500. At this point I will be glad to limit the losses and give it another day or so to see if the Bonds retreat. The Bonds and the spread have now gained back everything they lost last Friday, forming a possible double top. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 31.08.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 higher at 134’23. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 9’02 premium the Bonds. This puts the current loss on the spread from the initial trade in the Sept. contract at about $2500. At this point I will be glad to limit the losses and give it another day or so to see if the Bonds retreat. The Bonds and the spread have now gained back everything they lost last Friday, forming a possible double top. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 30.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 25 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’26. losing 10 points for the day. On Friday Bonds were were more than 2’00 points lower and the 10 Yr. Note/ Bond spread came in by more than a full point. Today I recommend rolling the spread into the Dec. contracts as the Dec. will be considered lead contract staring tomorrow and Sept. will be deliverable. This morning U.S. Personal Income came it at +0.2% as compared with with an estimate of + 0.3%.Consumer spending was up 0.4%, in line with expectations. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 131’26 and near term resistance 134’16. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 30.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 25 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’26. losing 10 points for the day. On Friday Bonds were were more than 2’00 points lower and the 10 Yr. Note/ Bond spread came in by more than a full point. Today I recommend rolling the spread into the Dec. contracts as the Dec. will be considered lead contract staring tomorrow and Sept. will be deliverable. This morning U.S. Personal Income came it at +0.2% as compared with with an estimate of + 0.3%.Consumer spending was up 0.4%, in line with expectations. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 131’26 and near term resistance 134’16. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 27.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 27.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 26.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 26.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 25.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 23 higher at 136’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 9’24 premium the Bonds. To say that I am currently on the wrong side of this market would be an understatement given the current losses. However, I feel that I will be right for the long term. Yesterday a disappointing Existing Home Sales report showed a decline of 27.2% which caused the market to rally to new recent highs. This mornings Durable Goods report came in at +0.3% versus expectations of 2.8%. Durable Goods ex-transportation was down by 3.8%. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 25.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 23 higher at 136’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 9’24 premium the Bonds. To say that I am currently on the wrong side of this market would be an understatement given the current losses. However, I feel that I will be right for the long term. Yesterday a disappointing Existing Home Sales report showed a decline of 27.2% which caused the market to rally to new recent highs. This mornings Durable Goods report came in at +0.3% versus expectations of 2.8%. Durable Goods ex-transportation was down by 3.8%. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 23.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 133’23. The long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’11 premium the Bonds (narrowing by 4 points). My objective for this spread still remains in the 6’15 area. Near term support is currently the 132’00 area and near term resistance just above 135’00. I still remain negative this market as long as the yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains under 4%.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 8 cents lower, Dec. Corn 7 cents higher and Dec. Wheat 2 lower. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 23.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 133’23. The long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’11 premium the Bonds (narrowing by 4 points). My objective for this spread still remains in the 6’15 area. Near term support is currently the 132’00 area and near term resistance just above 135’00. I still remain negative this market as long as the yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains under 4%.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 8 cents lower, Dec. Corn 7 cents higher and Dec. Wheat 2 lower. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 20.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently 4 higher at 8’17 putting the spread at an $1100 loss from where I initiated the spread. Technically the Bonds have made a test of the highs made the week of March 20th in the 134’00 area and surpassed it slightly with an over night high of 135’07. to be honest, I still feel that this market is overbought and feel that the market will retreat to the 132’00 level, which will still put the yield on the 30 Yr. at under 4%. I feel that except for the Government using the 10 and 30 Yr. instruments to keep yields artificially low that there will be a lack of buyers. I would be interested in your comments and opinions on this market. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 20.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently 4 higher at 8’17 putting the spread at an $1100 loss from where I initiated the spread. Technically the Bonds have made a test of the highs made the week of March 20th in the 134’00 area and surpassed it slightly with an over night high of 135’07. to be honest, I still feel that this market is overbought and feel that the market will retreat to the 132’00 level, which will still put the yield on the 30 Yr. at under 4%. I feel that except for the Government using the 10 and 30 Yr. instruments to keep yields artificially low that there will be a lack of buyers. I would be interested in your comments and opinions on this market. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 19.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 133’09. Weekly initial jobless claims rose 12,000 to 500,000, the highest level since last November. Pre-report average guesstimates were for a decline of 4,000. For the week of Aug. 7th continuing claims fell 13,000 to 4,478,000. The initial reaction in the Bonds was a rally to the 133’20 level before breaking back to present levels. The long 10 Yr. Note/short Bond spread is currently up 5 points at 7’29. We continue to hold this spread, looking for the spread to decline to the 6’20 level. Near term support remains at 132’12 and near term resistance 134’01. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 19.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 133’09. Weekly initial jobless claims rose 12,000 to 500,000, the highest level since last November. Pre-report average guesstimates were for a decline of 4,000. For the week of Aug. 7th continuing claims fell 13,000 to 4,478,000. The initial reaction in the Bonds was a rally to the 133’20 level before breaking back to present levels. The long 10 Yr. Note/short Bond spread is currently up 5 points at 7’29. We continue to hold this spread, looking for the spread to decline to the 6’20 level. Near term support remains at 132’12 and near term resistance 134’01. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 18.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 28 higher at 133’25. Slower than expected economic growth and a fear of deflation have pushed the market back to the weekly highs (a new recent high was made overnight at 134’01). I still feel that this market is overbought and that deflation fears are overblown. The lnog 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 7’25, about 12 points above where we initiated this trade. My objective remains in the 6’20 area for the spread. Near term support is currently the 132’12 level and resistance the over night high of 134’01. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 18.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 28 higher at 133’25. Slower than expected economic growth and a fear of deflation have pushed the market back to the weekly highs (a new recent high was made overnight at 134’01). I still feel that this market is overbought and that deflation fears are overblown. The lnog 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 7’25, about 12 points above where we initiated this trade. My objective remains in the 6’20 area for the spread. Near term support is currently the 132’12 level and resistance the over night high of 134’01. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 17.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 7 lower at 133’21. There were a number of gov’t. reports this morning: Building permits were down 3.1%. Housing starts were up 1.7% versus expectations of up 0.2%. June’s revised Housing Starts were down 8.7% versus the June number of 5.0% (not unexpected). PPI was up 0.2% right in line with expectations. PPI excluding food and energy was up 0.3% versus expectations of 0.1%. Not much in these numbers to move the Bond market. Equities have rallied slightly on these numbers. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 17.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 7 lower at 133’21. There were a number of gov’t. reports this morning: Building permits were down 3.1%. Housing starts were up 1.7% versus expectations of up 0.2%. June’s revised Housing Starts were down 8.7% versus the June number of 5.0% (not unexpected). PPI was up 0.2% right in line with expectations. PPI excluding food and energy was up 0.3% versus expectations of 0.1%. Not much in these numbers to move the Bond market. Equities have rallied slightly on these numbers. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 16.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’01 higher at 133’01. Slower quarterly growth in Japan has put upward pressure on Bonds in our markets. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently trading at 7’03 premium the Bonds. I must admit that this spread currently looks very attractive for a short term trade (1-5 days) and I am going to put this spread on at the market and look for a 15 point profit over the next day or so. If you went short the Bonds over the last couple of days, I would use a buy stop 10 points above the overnight high of 133’10. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 16.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’01 higher at 133’01. Slower quarterly growth in Japan has put upward pressure on Bonds in our markets. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently trading at 7’03 premium the Bonds. I must admit that this spread currently looks very attractive for a short term trade (1-5 days) and I am going to put this spread on at the market and look for a 15 point profit over the next day or so. If you went short the Bonds over the last couple of days, I would use a buy stop 10 points above the overnight high of 133’10. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 13.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’11. This morning CPI came out up 0.3%, in line with expectations. Retail Sales were up 0.4%, also in line with expectations. As mentioned yesterday, the market is currently trading close enough to long term resistance of 132’00 that I am willing to try the short side of the market for short term trading (1-5 days). Near term support is currently the 130’00 level and resistance 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 13 cents higher, Dec. Corn 10 higher and Dec. Wheat 18 higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 13.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’11. This morning CPI came out up 0.3%, in line with expectations. Retail Sales were up 0.4%, also in line with expectations. As mentioned yesterday, the market is currently trading close enough to long term resistance of 132’00 that I am willing to try the short side of the market for short term trading (1-5 days). Near term support is currently the 130’00 level and resistance 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 13 cents higher, Dec. Corn 10 higher and Dec. Wheat 18 higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 12.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’16. This mornings Weekly Unemployment Report showed claims up by 2,000, the market was expecting a decline. At current prices the market has just about reached long term resistance of 132’00 and I am now willing to try the short side of the market for short term trades as we will be against the prevailing trend. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is running at 5’28 and I am also willing to give this try for a short term trade (1-5 days). ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 12.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’16. This mornings Weekly Unemployment Report showed claims up by 2,000, the market was expecting a decline. At current prices the market has just about reached long term resistance of 132’00 and I am now willing to try the short side of the market for short term trades as we will be against the prevailing trend. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is running at 5’28 and I am also willing to give this try for a short term trade (1-5 days). ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 11.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 30 higher at 130’23. Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged but indicated that they will be buyers of long term instruments (5 yr., 10 yr., etc.) in an effort to keep longer term rates low. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short 30 Yr. Bond spread is now trading at 5’06 premium the Bonds, the recent high on this spread being 5’15 premium the Bonds. Yields on the 2 Yr. Note and 5 Yr. Note remain at historic lows. The 10 Yr. Note is now under 2.75% and the 30 Yr. just under 4%. I remain on the sidelines awaiting opportunity. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 11.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 30 higher at 130’23. Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged but indicated that they will be buyers of long term instruments (5 yr., 10 yr., etc.) in an effort to keep longer term rates low. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short 30 Yr. Bond spread is now trading at 5’06 premium the Bonds, the recent high on this spread being 5’15 premium the Bonds. Yields on the 2 Yr. Note and 5 Yr. Note remain at historic lows. The 10 Yr. Note is now under 2.75% and the 30 Yr. just under 4%. I remain on the sidelines awaiting opportunity. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 10.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1 tick higher at 129’12. The market is awaiting today’s announcement on interest rates by the FOMC at 1:15 Chicago time. I believe there will be an indication of easing of some sort, whether an outright easing of the discount rate, Fed Funds or continued purchases by the Fed of treasuries in an effort to tkeep rates low. It is probably time to start watching the money supply, funds to purchase treasuries have to come from somewhere. If there is continued growth in the money supply, I feel that long term rates will eventually start to rise. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 10.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1 tick higher at 129’12. The market is awaiting today’s announcement on interest rates by the FOMC at 1:15 Chicago time. I believe there will be an indication of easing of some sort, whether an outright easing of the discount rate, Fed Funds or continued purchases by the Fed of treasuries in an effort to tkeep rates low. It is probably time to start watching the money supply, funds to purchase treasuries have to come from somewhere. If there is continued growth in the money supply, I feel that long term rates will eventually start to rise. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 09.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are cuurently 7 lower at 129’10. As mentioned last week, I am currently on the sidelines. The feature this week will be the FMOC meeting which many are speculating will result in “quantitative easing” . With the 30 Yr. yielding 4%, the 10 yr. 2.82% and the 5 yr and 2 yr. at record low yields, I do not know how much more the Fed can ease. Could 90 day TBills go much below 0.1%? I continue to watch the spread between the 10 Yr. and 30 Yr. which is now 4’28 premium the 30 Yr. My inclination is to go long the 10 Yr./ short the 30 Yr., but I will wait until aftrer the FMOC meeting. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 09.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are cuurently 7 lower at 129’10. As mentioned last week, I am currently on the sidelines. The feature this week will be the FMOC meeting which many are speculating will result in “quantitative easing” . With the 30 Yr. yielding 4%, the 10 yr. 2.82% and the 5 yr and 2 yr. at record low yields, I do not know how much more the Fed can ease. Could 90 day TBills go much below 0.1%? I continue to watch the spread between the 10 Yr. and 30 Yr. which is now 4’28 premium the 30 Yr. My inclination is to go long the 10 Yr./ short the 30 Yr., but I will wait until aftrer the FMOC meeting. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 06.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’00 higher at 129’12. This mornings Monthly Employment Report showed a decline non-farm payrolls of 131,000 versus expectations of a decline of 60,000. The 2 Yr. Note now has a yield of less than ½%, a new all time low. The Bonds are now above yesterday’s resistance of 128’28. I remain on the sidelines. Major resistance remains at 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 4 cents higher, Dec. Corn 3 higher and Dec. Wheat 59’6 higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 06.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’00 higher at 129’12. This mornings Monthly Employment Report showed a decline non-farm payrolls of 131,000 versus expectations of a decline of 60,000. The 2 Yr. Note now has a yield of less than ½%, a new all time low. The Bonds are now above yesterday’s resistance of 128’28. I remain on the sidelines. Major resistance remains at 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 4 cents higher, Dec. Corn 3 higher and Dec. Wheat 59’6 higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 05.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 13 higher at 128’10. This morning’s weekly Unemployment Report showed an increase in claims of 19,000 vs. an expectation of a decline of 2,000. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 6 cents higher, Dec. Corn 11 higher and Dec. Wheat 45 higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 05.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 13 higher at 128’10. This morning’s weekly Unemployment Report showed an increase in claims of 19,000 vs. an expectation of a decline of 2,000. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 6 cents higher, Dec. Corn 11 higher and Dec. Wheat 45 higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 04.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 128’18. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. Long term resistance remains at 132’00. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains around 4% and the yield on the 10 Yr. is currently 2.90%. Yields on the 2 Yr. and 5 Yr. are on all time lows (at least during my 37 yr. career). The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 4’19 premium the Bonds. I will be interested in doing this spread at 4’28 premium the Bonds or higher. At the moment I am still on the sidelines as far as an outright futures position is concerned. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 04.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 128’18. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. Long term resistance remains at 132’00. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains around 4% and the yield on the 10 Yr. is currently 2.90%. Yields on the 2 Yr. and 5 Yr. are on all time lows (at least during my 37 yr. career). The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 4’19 premium the Bonds. I will be interested in doing this spread at 4’28 premium the Bonds or higher. At the moment I am still on the sidelines as far as an outright futures position is concerned. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 03.08.2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 14 higher at 128’02. Near term support of 127’18 held yesterday as evidenced by this mornings higher market. Near term resistance remains at 128’28. As mentioned last week long term resistance could be as high as 132’00. The 30 Yr. Bond continues with a yield just above the 4% level, while the 10 Yr. Note yield remains under 3% at 2.92%. I am still hesitant to take a position in this market. What I am looking at, once again, is for an opportunity in the long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread which is currently at 4’10 premium the Bonds. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 03.08.2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 14 higher at 128’02. Near term support of 127’18 held yesterday as evidenced by this mornings higher market. Near term resistance remains at 128’28. As mentioned last week long term resistance could be as high as 132’00. The 30 Yr. Bond continues with a yield just above the 4% level, while the 10 Yr. Note yield remains under 3% at 2.92%. I am still hesitant to take a position in this market. What I am looking at, once again, is for an opportunity in the long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread which is currently at 4’10 premium the Bonds. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 02.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 21 lower at 128’02. Near term support is currently 127’18 and near term resistance 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 17 cents higher, Dec. Corn 13 higher and Dec. Wheat 34 higher. Over night Beans were 16 higher, Corn 8 higher and Wheat 26 higher. Historically high temperatures in the Ukraine, wet conditiond in China and continued purcheases by Commodity Funds continue to fuel upside momentum. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 02.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 21 lower at 128’02. Near term support is currently 127’18 and near term resistance 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 17 cents higher, Dec. Corn 13 higher and Dec. Wheat 34 higher. Over night Beans were 16 higher, Corn 8 higher and Wheat 26 higher. Historically high temperatures in the Ukraine, wet conditiond in China and continued purcheases by Commodity Funds continue to fuel upside momentum. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 30.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’22 higher at 128’18. This mornings report on 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.4% versus an expectation of 2.5%. In the first quarter the economy grew by 3.7% revised from 2.7%, but growth estimates going back as far as 2007 have been revised to lower numbers. This overal revision of data over the past 3 years showed that the exit from the economic slump started in 2007 was weaker than anticipated. As an economist friend of mine likes to say “ Economists have predicted 11 out of the last 7 recessions”. This saying, I assume, also goes for recoveries. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 30.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’22 higher at 128’18. This mornings report on 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.4% versus an expectation of 2.5%. In the first quarter the economy grew by 3.7% revised from 2.7%, but growth estimates going back as far as 2007 have been revised to lower numbers. This overal revision of data over the past 3 years showed that the exit from the economic slump started in 2007 was weaker than anticipated. As an economist friend of mine likes to say “ Economists have predicted 11 out of the last 7 recessions”. This saying, I assume, also goes for recoveries. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 29.07.2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 15 lower at 126’12. This mornings Jobless Claims were down by 11,000 versus expectations of a decrease of only 4,000. This wasn’t great news but the market has looked upon the number as constructive. Yesterday we were stopped out of a recent long position from the 126’13 level when the market traded through the 126’03 level, putting us on the sidelines. Near term support is currently 125’26 and near term resistance 127’12. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 29.07.2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 15 lower at 126’12. This mornings Jobless Claims were down by 11,000 versus expectations of a decrease of only 4,000. This wasn’t great news but the market has looked upon the number as constructive. Yesterday we were stopped out of a recent long position from the 126’13 level when the market traded through the 126’03 level, putting us on the sidelines. Near term support is currently 125’26 and near term resistance 127’12. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 28.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 126’16. This morning’s Durable Goods report was a bit of a disappointment coming in a -1% versus expectations of +1%. The immediate reaction was a rally to the 126’26 level before backing off to current levels. Yesterday the long 10 Yr. Note /short Bond spread traded at our objective of 4’00 premium the Bonds and we are now out of this position. Yesterday we also recommended trading Bonds from the long side from the 126’13 level with a 10 point protective stop for a short term trade. If you went long, continue to use a protective sell stop in the 126’03 area. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 28.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 126’16. This morning’s Durable Goods report was a bit of a disappointment coming in a -1% versus expectations of +1%. The immediate reaction was a rally to the 126’26 level before backing off to current levels. Yesterday the long 10 Yr. Note /short Bond spread traded at our objective of 4’00 premium the Bonds and we are now out of this position. Yesterday we also recommended trading Bonds from the long side from the 126’13 level with a 10 point protective stop for a short term trade. If you went long, continue to use a protective sell stop in the 126’03 area. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 27.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 26 lower at 126’13. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 4’05 premium the Bonds. If you remain in this spread, I feel it is close enough to my objective of 4’00 premium the Bonds to liquidate this position. Technically the market is testing near term support at current levels. Near term resistance is now the 127’18 level. I am recommending the long side of market at present levels with a 10 point stop for short term trades. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 27.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 26 lower at 126’13. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 4’05 premium the Bonds. If you remain in this spread, I feel it is close enough to my objective of 4’00 premium the Bonds to liquidate this position. Technically the market is testing near term support at current levels. Near term resistance is now the 127’18 level. I am recommending the long side of market at present levels with a 10 point stop for short term trades. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 26.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 127’02. Yields on the 30 Yr. Bond and 10 Yr. Notes are back to about 4% and 3% respectively. A stronger equities market and the ability of most European banks to pass the “stress tests” have taken some of the upward pressure off the long term interest rate vehicles (30yr., 10 yr. and 5 yr.). If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Notes/short Bonds (currently at 4’16) I would recommend contniuing to hold out for the 4’00 level premium the Bopnds to liquidate the position. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 26.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 127’02. Yields on the 30 Yr. Bond and 10 Yr. Notes are back to about 4% and 3% respectively. A stronger equities market and the ability of most European banks to pass the “stress tests” have taken some of the upward pressure off the long term interest rate vehicles (30yr., 10 yr. and 5 yr.). If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Notes/short Bonds (currently at 4’16) I would recommend contniuing to hold out for the 4’00 level premium the Bopnds to liquidate the position. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Steady, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 23.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently steady at 128’03. Over night the Bonds traded below near term support of 127’24 making an early morning low of 127’07 as the market reacted to favorable economic news from Europe. The market is now focused on results of “stress tests” of European banks. If you remain spread long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bonds, my objective remains at 4’00 premium the Bonds (the spread is currently at 4’28). As mentioned yesterday I am currently on the sidelines as far as initiating new positions at this time. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Steady, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 23.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently steady at 128’03. Over night the Bonds traded below near term support of 127’24 making an early morning low of 127’07 as the market reacted to favorable economic news from Europe. The market is now focused on results of “stress tests” of European banks. If you remain spread long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bonds, my objective remains at 4’00 premium the Bonds (the spread is currently at 4’28). As mentioned yesterday I am currently on the sidelines as far as initiating new positions at this time. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 22.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 lower at 128’23. Yesterday the market rallied sharply after Bernacke spoke about about lowered growth expectations. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bonds dropped to 3.89% and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note also dropped to a yield of 2.89%. Resistance of 128’12 was handily penetrated as the market rallied to a high of 129’14 befroe backing off to present levels. To be honest, the trend is up but I cannot trade this market from the long side with the yield at present levels. If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Notes/ short the Bonds, ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 22.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 lower at 128’23. Yesterday the market rallied sharply after Bernacke spoke about about lowered growth expectations. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bonds dropped to 3.89% and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note also dropped to a yield of 2.89%. Resistance of 128’12 was handily penetrated as the market rallied to a high of 129’14 befroe backing off to present levels. To be honest, the trend is up but I cannot trade this market from the long side with the yield at present levels. If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Notes/ short the Bonds, ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 21.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 127’21. The yeild on the 30 Yr. Bond remains just below the 4% mark (3.98%) and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note just below 3% (2.96%). I still feel that yields will go above these benchmarks to last weeks levels of 4.1% and 3.04% respectively. If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Note/ short Bonds (currently at 4’22 premium the Bonds) I would look to liquidate the position at 4’00 premium the Bonds. Near term support remains at 127’02 and near term resistance at 128’12. I still prefer the short side of market on rallies to resistance for short term trades. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 21.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 127’21. The yeild on the 30 Yr. Bond remains just below the 4% mark (3.98%) and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note just below 3% (2.96%). I still feel that yields will go above these benchmarks to last weeks levels of 4.1% and 3.04% respectively. If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Note/ short Bonds (currently at 4’22 premium the Bonds) I would look to liquidate the position at 4’00 premium the Bonds. Near term support remains at 127’02 and near term resistance at 128’12. I still prefer the short side of market on rallies to resistance for short term trades. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 19.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 6 lower at 127’29. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently 4’23 premium the Bonds. If you remain in this spread, I would continue to hold and look to liquidate in the 4’00 premium the Bonds area. Near term support is currently 127’02 and near term resistance 128’12. I am looking to the short side of the market for short term trades on rallies to resistance. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bond is once again below the 4% level and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note once again below 3%. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 19.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 6 lower at 127’29. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently 4’23 premium the Bonds. If you remain in this spread, I would continue to hold and look to liquidate in the 4’00 premium the Bonds area. Near term support is currently 127’02 and near term resistance 128’12. I am looking to the short side of the market for short term trades on rallies to resistance. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bond is once again below the 4% level and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note once again below 3%. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 16.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1 higher at 127’22. If you remain spread long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bonds I recommend continuing to hold the position. If you are currently on the sidelines I would remain so until next week. Near term support is currently 126’28 and near term resistance 128’0.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 26 cents higher, Dec. Corn 9 higher and Dec. Wheat 36 cents higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 16.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1 higher at 127’22. If you remain spread long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bonds I recommend continuing to hold the position. If you are currently on the sidelines I would remain so until next week. Near term support is currently 126’28 and near term resistance 128’0.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 26 cents higher, Dec. Corn 9 higher and Dec. Wheat 36 cents higher. ... mehr The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 15.07.2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 13 higher at 127’00. This mornings PPI report showed prices down 0.5% versus expectations of down 0.2%. Ex food and energy was in line with expectations of up 0.1%. Weekly Jobless Claims were down 29K versus expectations of down 9K. All in all the trade looked at these numbers as disappointing indicating sluggish growth. Technically the market has penetrated near term upside resistance of 126’27. If you are spread long the 10 Yr. Note/short Bonds I would recommend giving the spread another day or two to see if the Bonds settle back below the 126’15 level and liquidate when the (if the Bonds trade below 126’15. ... mehr |
