Global Market Brief Sept 7th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -EU Crisis Back Again
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 07.09.2010
Overview: A classic EU sovereign debt/banking crisis fear inspired risk aversion day, slamming risk assets, especially the EUR. Sparked by a WSJ report that July bank stress tests understated PIIGS bond exposure. This is old new, but comes at a sensitive time as PIIGS seek to sell $80 bln in bonds and their bond and CDS rates are already at/near May crisis levels. Bond markets were already nervous, and now may make new bond sales more expensive yet. ... mehr

Global Market Brief Sept 7th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -EU Crisis Back Again
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 07.09.2010
Overview: A classic EU sovereign debt/banking crisis fear inspired risk aversion day, slamming risk assets, especially the EUR. Sparked by a WSJ report that July bank stress tests understated PIIGS bond exposure. This is old new, but comes at a sensitive time as PIIGS seek to sell $80 bln in bonds and their bond and CDS rates are already at/near May crisis levels. Bond markets were already nervous, and now may make new bond sales more expensive yet. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT 6th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally Continues
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 06.09.2010
Overview: Risk appetite continuing thus far Monday across the range of risk assets, only oil lower but stocks, commodities, risk fx higher. NB: US markets closed, beware BoJ, SNB intervention attempts as low liquidity would make it relatively easy for them get crowded longs running for the exits to take profits and serve as future warning to speculators. If the BoJ, SNB let this opportunity pass, it’s a sign they’ve really given up for now, hoping that the risk rally will do their work for them. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT 6th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally Continues
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 06.09.2010
Overview: Risk appetite continuing thus far Monday across the range of risk assets, only oil lower but stocks, commodities, risk fx higher. NB: US markets closed, beware BoJ, SNB intervention attempts as low liquidity would make it relatively easy for them get crowded longs running for the exits to take profits and serve as future warning to speculators. If the BoJ, SNB let this opportunity pass, it’s a sign they’ve really given up for now, hoping that the risk rally will do their work for them. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.2ND Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 02.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia, US ISM Manufacturing report, though somehow manage to ignore negative US ADP jobs data. ECB rate decision and statement, along with US pending existing home sales are the key calendar items still to come today after great Swiss retail sales and poor Aussie trade balance figures. Friday’s US jobs reports could well decide how the week ultimately looks, especially if there is a decisively strong beat or miss of the forecasted -101k. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.2ND Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 02.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia, US ISM Manufacturing report, though somehow manage to ignore negative US ADP jobs data. ECB rate decision and statement, along with US pending existing home sales are the key calendar items still to come today after great Swiss retail sales and poor Aussie trade balance figures. Friday’s US jobs reports could well decide how the week ultimately looks, especially if there is a decisively strong beat or miss of the forecasted -101k. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.1ST Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex – Risk Bounce?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 01.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia. However, UK Mfg PMI misses badly, and day’s results likely to be determined by US Mfg PMI and ADP NFP later today. STOCKS: US: Mixed – Equities remained in a tight trading range. For the sixth time since August 24th, the 1040 support level for the S&P 500 held, and the index closed fractionally higher, with the other major US indices closing just above or below their openings, reflecting continued indecision about the near term trend. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.1ST Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex – Risk Bounce?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 01.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia. However, UK Mfg PMI misses badly, and day’s results likely to be determined by US Mfg PMI and ADP NFP later today. STOCKS: US: Mixed – Equities remained in a tight trading range. For the sixth time since August 24th, the 1040 support level for the S&P 500 held, and the index closed fractionally higher, with the other major US indices closing just above or below their openings, reflecting continued indecision about the near term trend. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF 8/31 Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Red September?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 31.08.2010
Overview: Markets Painted Red. A bounce lower off of resistance on profit taking following Friday’s bounce off of support on bargain hunting and short covering. In sum an indecisive market likely to remain within the past week’s trading ranges until the balance of the abundant top tier calendar events becomes decisively positive or negative enough to justify a drive above or below the past week’s trading ranges. As noted in our weekly outlook, markets are expecting more bad news confirming a slowdown throughout the developed world and even China. ... mehr

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF 8/31 Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Red September?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 31.08.2010
Overview: Markets Painted Red. A bounce lower off of resistance on profit taking following Friday’s bounce off of support on bargain hunting and short covering. In sum an indecisive market likely to remain within the past week’s trading ranges until the balance of the abundant top tier calendar events becomes decisively positive or negative enough to justify a drive above or below the past week’s trading ranges. As noted in our weekly outlook, markets are expecting more bad news confirming a slowdown throughout the developed world and even China. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 27 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 27.08.2010
Overview Following falls seen on Wall Street overnight, the Nikkei was off to a very weak start, falling close to 1%. Gapping down to open at 8811.47, it edged down a bit more to 8810.46 before bouncing. The Dow yesterday closed below the psychologically important 10k level for the first time since July 6. The relatively safe-haven USD often benefits when US equity prices weaken (and vice-versa). ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 27 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 27.08.2010
Overview Following falls seen on Wall Street overnight, the Nikkei was off to a very weak start, falling close to 1%. Gapping down to open at 8811.47, it edged down a bit more to 8810.46 before bouncing. The Dow yesterday closed below the psychologically important 10k level for the first time since July 6. The relatively safe-haven USD often benefits when US equity prices weaken (and vice-versa). ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 26 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 26.08.2010
Overview Asian stocks rose on Thursday as investors hunted for bargains among recently beaten-down shares, while the yen pulled further away from 15-year highs as investors wondered whether Japanese officials would take fresh steps to curb the currency’s strength and spur economic growth. Risk assets staged a comeback on with Gold steady on Thursday, hovering near its strongest level in eight weeks hit the previous day, with worries that the U.S. economic recovery was stalling likely to drive the metal to new highs. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 25 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 25.08.2010
Overview Another knock for the risk markets Tuesday with Stock markets lower, across the board. Yesterday also saw major moves in the JPY with USDJPY breaching its 1995 low of 84.45. Asian stocks fell on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei at a 16-month low, as investors sold riskier assets after a spate of worrying U.S. economic data, while the yen slipped from its lows on a report Tokyo was considering weakening its currency. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 25 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 25.08.2010
Overview Another knock for the risk markets Tuesday with Stock markets lower, across the board. Yesterday also saw major moves in the JPY with USDJPY breaching its 1995 low of 84.45. Asian stocks fell on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei at a 16-month low, as investors sold riskier assets after a spate of worrying U.S. economic data, while the yen slipped from its lows on a report Tokyo was considering weakening its currency. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 24 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 24.08.2010
Overview Japan’s Nikkei average hit a 15-month closing low below 9,000 points on Tuesday, with hedge funds and foreigners seen selling amid mounting concern about the authorities’ inaction on a strong yen, which threatens a fragile economic recovery. The euro hit a nine-year low against the yen on Tuesday as the loss of key technical support led speculators to short the currency in the hope of forcing stop-loss sales against both the yen and the dollar. Crude oil fell almost 1 percent on Tuesday, down for a fifth day, under pressure from weakness in gasoline which fell to a 6- month low as the U.S. driving season draws to a close without triggering a stockpile drop. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 24 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 24.08.2010
Overview Japan’s Nikkei average hit a 15-month closing low below 9,000 points on Tuesday, with hedge funds and foreigners seen selling amid mounting concern about the authorities’ inaction on a strong yen, which threatens a fragile economic recovery. The euro hit a nine-year low against the yen on Tuesday as the loss of key technical support led speculators to short the currency in the hope of forcing stop-loss sales against both the yen and the dollar. Crude oil fell almost 1 percent on Tuesday, down for a fifth day, under pressure from weakness in gasoline which fell to a 6- month low as the U.S. driving season draws to a close without triggering a stockpile drop. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 23 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 23.08.2010
Overview The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday, retaining most of the gains it made late last week when growing worries about the global economy prompted investors to park funds in the world’s most liquid currency, while the Australian dollar slid on political uncertainty. Japanese shares extended losses on Monday amid worries a strong yen would derail the fragile economic recovery, while the Australian dollar recovered after falling to a one-month low on inconclusive weekend elections. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 23 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 23.08.2010
Overview The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday, retaining most of the gains it made late last week when growing worries about the global economy prompted investors to park funds in the world’s most liquid currency, while the Australian dollar slid on political uncertainty. Japanese shares extended losses on Monday amid worries a strong yen would derail the fragile economic recovery, while the Australian dollar recovered after falling to a one-month low on inconclusive weekend elections. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 20 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 20.08.2010
Overview Not much scheduled data due out during today’s session with the Canadian Core CPI m/m rate expected at 11.00 GMT (Forecast 0.1%) and then later at 14.00 GMT we have the Banco de Mexico interest rate decision, no change expected here with rates holding at 4.50. All eyes will be on Australia this weekend as the country is set for a very close run Federal Election with the governments campaign chief saying a "hung parliament is a real possibility". ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 20 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 20.08.2010
Overview Not much scheduled data due out during today’s session with the Canadian Core CPI m/m rate expected at 11.00 GMT (Forecast 0.1%) and then later at 14.00 GMT we have the Banco de Mexico interest rate decision, no change expected here with rates holding at 4.50. All eyes will be on Australia this weekend as the country is set for a very close run Federal Election with the governments campaign chief saying a "hung parliament is a real possibility". ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 19 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 19.08.2010
Overview Crude oil traded near the lowest in two days after the U.S. government said total petroleum stockpiles surged to the highest level in at least 20 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 119.69 as of 2:48 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.1 percent. Later in today’s session, investors will eye U.S. weekly jobless claims at 1230 GMT, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank will release its business activity index at 1400 GMT. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 19 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 19.08.2010
Overview Crude oil traded near the lowest in two days after the U.S. government said total petroleum stockpiles surged to the highest level in at least 20 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 119.69 as of 2:48 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.1 percent. Later in today’s session, investors will eye U.S. weekly jobless claims at 1230 GMT, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank will release its business activity index at 1400 GMT. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 18 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 18.08.2010
Overview Wholesale costs in the U.S. increased in July for the first time in four months, signalling slower growth is not resulting in deflation, or a protracted drop in prices that hurts the economy. Elsewhere, the launch of an unsolicited $38.6 billion take-over bid by mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd for Canada’s Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc has improved sentiment across Asia. The only main news release scheduled this morning are the MPC minutes with the prospect of the first three way split in two years a real possibility. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 18 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 18.08.2010
Overview Wholesale costs in the U.S. increased in July for the first time in four months, signalling slower growth is not resulting in deflation, or a protracted drop in prices that hurts the economy. Elsewhere, the launch of an unsolicited $38.6 billion take-over bid by mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd for Canada’s Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc has improved sentiment across Asia. The only main news release scheduled this morning are the MPC minutes with the prospect of the first three way split in two years a real possibility. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 17 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 17.08.2010
Overview American industrial production and housing starts probably rose in July from depressed levels the prior month as the U.S. struggled to sustain the recovery, economists said before reports today. The Federal Reserve’s production figures are scheduled for 13:15 GMT. German investor confidence probably declined to a 16-month low in August, a sign economic growth is likely to slow from the record-breaking pace set in the second quarter. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 17 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 17.08.2010
Overview American industrial production and housing starts probably rose in July from depressed levels the prior month as the U.S. struggled to sustain the recovery, economists said before reports today. The Federal Reserve’s production figures are scheduled for 13:15 GMT. German investor confidence probably declined to a 16-month low in August, a sign economic growth is likely to slow from the record-breaking pace set in the second quarter. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 16 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 16.08.2010
Overview Japan’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in three quarters and U.S. retail sales missed economist estimates. Currencies EUR/USD: EUR/USD: Key support levels at 1.2730 The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.2760 and traded up to 1.2775 on light profit taking. The EUR/USD started tracking lower when the Japan Q2 GDP came in mush worse than expected and led to JPY-cross selling. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 16 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 16.08.2010
Overview Japan’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in three quarters and U.S. retail sales missed economist estimates. Currencies EUR/USD: EUR/USD: Key support levels at 1.2730 The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.2760 and traded up to 1.2775 on light profit taking. The EUR/USD started tracking lower when the Japan Q2 GDP came in mush worse than expected and led to JPY-cross selling. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 13 August 2010 - Dealers Room Commentary
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 13.08.2010
Overview Stocks ended down for a third straight day on Thursday as an unexpected rise in jobless claims and a sobering revenue outlook from Cisco underscored the hurdles to economic recovery. Thursday’s drop comes a day after all three major indexes posted their worst percentage declines in more than a month, erasing gains for the year in the aftermath of a gloomier outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 13 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 13.08.2010
Overview Stocks ended down for a third straight day on Thursday as an unexpected rise in jobless claims and a sobering revenue outlook from Cisco underscored the hurdles to economic recovery. Thursday’s drop comes a day after all three major indexes posted their worst percentage declines in more than a month, erasing gains for the year in the aftermath of a gloomier outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 12 August 2010 - Dealers Room Commentary
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 12.08.2010
Overview U.S. stocks erased the year’s gains in the broadest selloff in a month-and-a-half on Wednesday as fears of sustained global economic stagnation caused investors to flee to safer assets. All three major indexes posted their worst percentage drop since July 16 following the Federal Reserve’s bleaker assessment of the economy on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank said it would take steps to hold down borrowing costs. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 12 August 2010 - Dealers Room Commentary
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 12.08.2010
Overview U.S. stocks erased the year’s gains in the broadest selloff in a month-and-a-half on Wednesday as fears of sustained global economic stagnation caused investors to flee to safer assets. All three major indexes posted their worst percentage drop since July 16 following the Federal Reserve’s bleaker assessment of the economy on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank said it would take steps to hold down borrowing costs. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 11 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 11.08.2010
Overview Asian stocks dropped to a two-week low while the yen strengthened and Treasuries climbed as the Federal Reserve said it needs to boost the U.S. economy because growth will be “more modest” than anticipated. The Federal Reserve reversed plans to exit from aggressive monetary stimulus and decided to keep its bond holdings level to support an economic recovery it described as weaker than anticipated Currencies EUR/USD: Filling in Gap as EUR/JPY Slides The EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.3040 due to heavy EUR/JPY selling in early Asia after the Nikkei opened over 2% lower. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 11 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 11.08.2010
Overview Asian stocks dropped to a two-week low while the yen strengthened and Treasuries climbed as the Federal Reserve said it needs to boost the U.S. economy because growth will be “more modest” than anticipated. The Federal Reserve reversed plans to exit from aggressive monetary stimulus and decided to keep its bond holdings level to support an economic recovery it described as weaker than anticipated Currencies EUR/USD: Filling in Gap as EUR/JPY Slides The EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.3040 due to heavy EUR/JPY selling in early Asia after the Nikkei opened over 2% lower. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 10 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 10.08.2010
Overview Stocks gained Monday amid light volume as investors hung back to await news from the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday. However, shares of Hewlett-Packard plunged nearly 8 percent after the surprise resignation of their CEO. The Bank of Japan left Monetary Policy unchanged overnight leaving interest rates as expected at 0.10%.The central bank left its economic assessment unchanged. There was even no specific mention of recent JPY strength with the BoJ merely noting that it needed to watch market moves and how they affect the Japanese and global economies. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 10 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 10.08.2010
Overview Stocks gained Monday amid light volume as investors hung back to await news from the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday. However, shares of Hewlett-Packard plunged nearly 8 percent after the surprise resignation of their CEO. The Bank of Japan left Monetary Policy unchanged overnight leaving interest rates as expected at 0.10%.The central bank left its economic assessment unchanged. There was even no specific mention of recent JPY strength with the BoJ merely noting that it needed to watch market moves and how they affect the Japanese and global economies. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 09 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 09.08.2010
Overview The USD dropped across the board last week, as the combination of weak US data, falling US yields and relatively buoyant risk asset markets weighed heavily. The EUR and GBP performed particularly well due to the run of positive data out of European and calming sovereign debt markets in peripheral Europe. The AUD was boosted by a very upbeat utlook for the Aus economy expressed on two occasions by the RBA, solid data and buoyant commodity markets. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 09 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 09.08.2010
Overview The USD dropped across the board last week, as the combination of weak US data, falling US yields and relatively buoyant risk asset markets weighed heavily. The EUR and GBP performed particularly well due to the run of positive data out of European and calming sovereign debt markets in peripheral Europe. The AUD was boosted by a very upbeat utlook for the Aus economy expressed on two occasions by the RBA, solid data and buoyant commodity markets. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 06 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 06.08.2010
Overview Today’s key event risk is the 12:30GMT release of July’s US employment report. Minus 65k is the consensus expectation re: the Non-Farm Payroll number, with +90k being the consensus expectation for the Private Payrolls number. The US unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9.6%, from 9.5% in June. Currencies EUR/USD: Idling In Quiet Asia As Market Looks To US Payrolls The EUR/USD is idling around 1.3200 this morning, ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 06 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 06.08.2010
Overview Today’s key event risk is the 12:30GMT release of July’s US employment report. Minus 65k is the consensus expectation re: the Non-Farm Payroll number, with +90k being the consensus expectation for the Private Payrolls number. The US unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9.6%, from 9.5% in June. Currencies EUR/USD: Idling In Quiet Asia As Market Looks To US Payrolls The EUR/USD is idling around 1.3200 this morning, ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 05 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 05.08.2010
Overview Stocks advanced Wednesday, led by consumer discretionary stocks, as encouraging reports on jobs and the services sector fueled hopes for the recovery. Both the Dow and S&P ended at their highest levels since mid-May: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.05, or 0.4 percent, to close at 10,680.43, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6 percent to close at 1,127.24. BoE and ECB meetings later today. The consensus is for no change from either. Currencies EUR/USD: Trading With Heavy Tone As Asian Equities Sag The EUR/USD is trading either side of hourly support around 1.3150 ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 05 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 05.08.2010
Overview Stocks advanced Wednesday, led by consumer discretionary stocks, as encouraging reports on jobs and the services sector fueled hopes for the recovery. Both the Dow and S&P ended at their highest levels since mid-May: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.05, or 0.4 percent, to close at 10,680.43, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6 percent to close at 1,127.24. BoE and ECB meetings later today. The consensus is for no change from either. Currencies EUR/USD: Trading With Heavy Tone As Asian Equities Sag The EUR/USD is trading either side of hourly support around 1.3150 ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 04 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 04.08.2010
Overview European shares opened lower on Wednesday, tracking weakness in Asian equities and Wall Street overnight, as disappointing U.S. data on consumer spending and housing renewed concerns over the pace of economic recovery. Futures for the STOXX Europe 50, DAX futures and CAC-40 futures were all down 0.3 percent. Corporate earnings are likely to be in focus, with heavyweight banks Societe Generale and Standard Chartered reporting forecast-beating results. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 04 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 04.08.2010
Overview European shares opened lower on Wednesday, tracking weakness in Asian equities and Wall Street overnight, as disappointing U.S. data on consumer spending and housing renewed concerns over the pace of economic recovery. Futures for the STOXX Europe 50, DAX futures and CAC-40 futures were all down 0.3 percent. Corporate earnings are likely to be in focus, with heavyweight banks Societe Generale and Standard Chartered reporting forecast-beating results. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 03 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 03.08.2010
Overview The GBP was the best performing currency on Monday – gaining 1.30% against the USD, CHF and JPY while ending the day 0.30% higher against the EUR. The GBP was boosted by a report saying Goldman predicted the UK economy would grow faster than the US, EZ and Japanese economies and growing expectations that more MPC members would consider joining Sentence in pushing for a BOE rate hike when they meet on Thursday. Stock markets higher across the board yesterday with Wall Street up large (DJIA +1.99%, NASDAQ +1.8%, S&P +2.2%). ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 03 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 03.08.2010
Overview The GBP was the best performing currency on Monday – gaining 1.30% against the USD, CHF and JPY while ending the day 0.30% higher against the EUR. The GBP was boosted by a report saying Goldman predicted the UK economy would grow faster than the US, EZ and Japanese economies and growing expectations that more MPC members would consider joining Sentence in pushing for a BOE rate hike when they meet on Thursday. Stock markets higher across the board yesterday with Wall Street up large (DJIA +1.99%, NASDAQ +1.8%, S&P +2.2%). ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 02 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 02.08.2010
Overview U.S. stocks recovered lost ground but closed little changed on Friday, Wall Street wrapped up its best month in a year after the earnings season rounded the final turn with a group of strong results that offs et the impact of poor economic data. Gold regained strength on Monday, Asian stocks gained while the dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of currencies due to concerns the U.S. economy’s recovery was losing momentum following the release of poor economic growth data. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 02 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 02.08.2010
Overview U.S. stocks recovered lost ground but closed little changed on Friday, Wall Street wrapped up its best month in a year after the earnings season rounded the final turn with a group of strong results that offs et the impact of poor economic data. Gold regained strength on Monday, Asian stocks gained while the dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of currencies due to concerns the U.S. economy’s recovery was losing momentum following the release of poor economic growth data. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 30 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 30.07.2010
Overview Stocks head into the final day of July with the best monthly gain in a year, yet July’s hot performance has only sparked debate about what August will bring. The key data point Friday is second quarter GDP, expected to show 2.5 percent growth. Even though it’s backward looking, economists have been looking forward to it for weeks as they’ve fine-tuned their estimates, based on a surprisingly choppy data stream. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 30 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 30.07.2010
Overview Stocks head into the final day of July with the best monthly gain in a year, yet July’s hot performance has only sparked debate about what August will bring. The key data point Friday is second quarter GDP, expected to show 2.5 percent growth. Even though it’s backward looking, economists have been looking forward to it for weeks as they’ve fine-tuned their estimates, based on a surprisingly choppy data stream. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 29 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 29.07.2010
Overview Wall Street was lower last night after weak durable goods figures and a downbeat assessment of the economy from the Fed’s Beige Book kept the benchmark S&P 500 trapped below its 200-day moving average. Other Asian bourses saw a mixed performance today with most down small Overnight in Asia with the Japanese Nikkei Closing Day Down 57.25 Points, 0.59% At 9696.02. Currency News EUR/USD Back Above 1.3000, As Risk Appetite Firms Slightly – The EUR/USD has recovered from an early low at 1.2977, ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 29 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 29.07.2010
Overview Wall Street was lower last night after weak durable goods figures and a downbeat assessment of the economy from the Fed’s Beige Book kept the benchmark S&P 500 trapped below its 200-day moving average. Other Asian bourses saw a mixed performance today with most down small Overnight in Asia with the Japanese Nikkei Closing Day Down 57.25 Points, 0.59% At 9696.02. Currency News EUR/USD Back Above 1.3000, As Risk Appetite Firms Slightly – The EUR/USD has recovered from an early low at 1.2977, ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 28July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 28.07.2010
Overview The Euro gained in late Asian trading, with EUR/USD returning to the 1.3020s, EUR/JPY breaking above the 114.50-mark and EUR/CHF printing a 1.3801 high. The move higher in the headline pair returns the short-term focus to the 1.3050 barriers. The Australian Dollar took a bit of a hit during trading last night, falling due to a slowdown in inflation. Elsewhere, the euro slipped from 11-week highs and Asian stocks marked time on Wednesday as a recent rally lost steam after a drop in U.S. consumer confidence. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 28July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 28.07.2010
Overview The Euro gained in late Asian trading, with EUR/USD returning to the 1.3020s, EUR/JPY breaking above the 114.50-mark and EUR/CHF printing a 1.3801 high. The move higher in the headline pair returns the short-term focus to the 1.3050 barriers. The Australian Dollar took a bit of a hit during trading last night, falling due to a slowdown in inflation. Elsewhere, the euro slipped from 11-week highs and Asian stocks marked time on Wednesday as a recent rally lost steam after a drop in U.S. consumer confidence. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 27July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 27.07.2010
Overview The euro rallied to $1.30 on Monday as relief over European bank stress tests and stronger economic data on both sides of the Atlantic gave investors less reason to be risk averse. The pair trades above 1.30 on Tuesday morning looking to test the 1.3030 resistance level. Focus is on equities at this stage following the bullish outside weeks posted on all major U.S. stock indices. Overall these are good developments that should see major indices post further gains. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 27July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 27.07.2010
Overview The euro rallied to $1.30 on Monday as relief over European bank stress tests and stronger economic data on both sides of the Atlantic gave investors less reason to be risk averse. The pair trades above 1.30 on Tuesday morning looking to test the 1.3030 resistance level. Focus is on equities at this stage following the bullish outside weeks posted on all major U.S. stock indices. Overall these are good developments that should see major indices post further gains. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 26July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 26.07.2010
Overview Just seven of 91 European banks failed a health check and need to raise their capital by 3.5 billion Euros ($4.5 billion), much less than expected, confirming fears the continent’s long-awaited stress test was too soft. On Monday, markets may turn their attention to the dozen or so banks that just scraped through. EU tests of banks’ ability to withstand financial shocks, criticised as too easy after only 7 out of 91 failed, face their own stress test in the markets on Monday with early signs pointing to a more positive response. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 26July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 26.07.2010
Overview Just seven of 91 European banks failed a health check and need to raise their capital by 3.5 billion Euros ($4.5 billion), much less than expected, confirming fears the continent’s long-awaited stress test was too soft. On Monday, markets may turn their attention to the dozen or so banks that just scraped through. EU tests of banks’ ability to withstand financial shocks, criticised as too easy after only 7 out of 91 failed, face their own stress test in the markets on Monday with early signs pointing to a more positive response. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 22 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 22.07.2010
Overview Bernanke quietly optimistic on recovery Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated two key themes in his written Monetary Policy Report testimony before Congress yesterday: the Fed expects a gradual recovery to continue, and it believes the current policy stance is appropriate to support a recovery. Bernanke signaled he needs to see signs of deeper weakness in the economy before pushing the bounds of monetary policy further. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 22 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 22.07.2010
Overview Bernanke quietly optimistic on recovery Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated two key themes in his written Monetary Policy Report testimony before Congress yesterday: the Fed expects a gradual recovery to continue, and it believes the current policy stance is appropriate to support a recovery. Bernanke signaled he needs to see signs of deeper weakness in the economy before pushing the bounds of monetary policy further. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 21 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 21.07.2010
Overview The market is focused for now on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, with investors looking for any comments that could boost speculation about more monetary accommodation. This is at 18:00 GMT. Eyes are also on the MPC Minutes released in the UK later this morning. Speculation has affected Cable pairings throughout the morning. Currency News EUR/USD: Retreats from 10-week high ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 21 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 21.07.2010
Overview The market is focused for now on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, with investors looking for any comments that could boost speculation about more monetary accommodation. This is at 18:00 GMT. Eyes are also on the MPC Minutes released in the UK later this morning. Speculation has affected Cable pairings throughout the morning. Currency News EUR/USD: Retreats from 10-week high ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 15 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 15.07.2010
Overview A consecutive six day rise in the markets came to an end yesterday as the US Federal Reserve lowered its growth forecast for this year while expressing concern about the pace of the recovery. The Euro is at a two month high in early trading against the US Dollar. The main news today is the US unemployment claims with a slight decrease anticipated. Currency News EUR/USD: 1.2805 Hit At Fresh 2-Month Highs ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 15 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 15.07.2010
Overview A consecutive six day rise in the markets came to an end yesterday as the US Federal Reserve lowered its growth forecast for this year while expressing concern about the pace of the recovery. The Euro is at a two month high in early trading against the US Dollar. The main news today is the US unemployment claims with a slight decrease anticipated. Currency News EUR/USD: 1.2805 Hit At Fresh 2-Month Highs ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 14 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 14.07.2010
Overview A sentiment of risk-on sees the euro higher. Equity markets have continued their gains with the S&P now up 8% from lows on the 1st July. Gold and Crude Oil have both steadied after big gains yesterday while yields on treasuries have also increased. Currency News EUR/USD: Capped Ahead Of 1.2739 In Asia, Stops Still Topside EUR/USD rallied from a London low of 1.2522 to as high as 1.2739 in New York overnight on renewed risk-on sentiment. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 14 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 14.07.2010
Overview A sentiment of risk-on sees the euro higher. Equity markets have continued their gains with the S&P now up 8% from lows on the 1st July. Gold and Crude Oil have both steadied after big gains yesterday while yields on treasuries have also increased. Currency News EUR/USD: Capped Ahead Of 1.2739 In Asia, Stops Still Topside EUR/USD rallied from a London low of 1.2522 to as high as 1.2739 in New York overnight on renewed risk-on sentiment. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 13 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 13.07.2010
Overview Investors are seeking safer assets after Moody’s downgraded Portugal to A1, Gold is higher while Crude Oil is lower. The Euro is weaker against all major currencies after the downgrade and continued fears of contagion. Currency News EUR/USD: Moody’s Portugal Downgrade Sends Euro Lower Moody’s has downgraded Portugal to A1 which has sent the Euro lower across the board, with EUR/USD trading to a 1.2522 low as sellers return and stops are triggered. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 13 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 13.07.2010
Overview Investors are seeking safer assets after Moody’s downgraded Portugal to A1, Gold is higher while Crude Oil is lower. The Euro is weaker against all major currencies after the downgrade and continued fears of contagion. Currency News EUR/USD: Moody’s Portugal Downgrade Sends Euro Lower Moody’s has downgraded Portugal to A1 which has sent the Euro lower across the board, with EUR/USD trading to a 1.2522 low as sellers return and stops are triggered. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 12 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 12.07.2010
Overview Continued increase in risk appetite starts the week with both Gold and Crude Oil lower. The US dollar is higher this morning. While in equities, today sees the start of the earnings season. Currency News EUR/USD: Heavy But Early Lows Still Intact Reports that European stress tests included a German sovereign debt haircut scenario have weighed on the single currency into the start of this trading week. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 12 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 12.07.2010
Overview Continued increase in risk appetite starts the week with both Gold and Crude Oil lower. The US dollar is higher this morning. While in equities, today sees the start of the earnings season. Currency News EUR/USD: Heavy But Early Lows Still Intact Reports that European stress tests included a German sovereign debt haircut scenario have weighed on the single currency into the start of this trading week. ... mehr

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlokk 08 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 08.07.2010
Overview Greater appetite for risk saw equity markets stage a rally, resulting in lower demand for bonds and Crude Oil jumping above $75. Today sees interest rate decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. Currency News EUR/USD: Fails to break 1.2700: Session highs come in around the top of the Bollinger band and hourly charts are set to peak in overbought territory. ... mehr

World Markets Outlook 12/31
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 31.12.2009
AVA FX Warns: Beware the Illiquid Year End Trading Scam Stocks: Prior Day: Asia, Europe, US down, Today: Asia up, Europe mixed. Pre-Holiday thin liquidity is dangerous –enter only at strong support/resistance with nearby stop losses for small losses – bias to profit taking FX: bias to risk currencies [JPY, USD, CHF in order of safety appeal] vs. risk currencies [AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR, GBP in order of risk appetite appeal], ... mehr

World Markets Outlook 12/31
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 31.12.2009
AVA FX Warns: Beware the Illiquid Year End Trading Scam Stocks: Prior Day: Asia, Europe, US down, Today: Asia up, Europe mixed. Pre-Holiday thin liquidity is dangerous –enter only at strong support/resistance with nearby stop losses for small losses – bias to profit taking FX: bias to risk currencies [JPY, USD, CHF in order of safety appeal] vs. risk currencies [AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR, GBP in order of risk appetite appeal], ... mehr

World Markets Brief 12/30: Best Daily FX Trades for Illiquid USD
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 30.12.2009
Stocks: Prior Day: Asia, Europe, US up, Today: Asia, Europe down. Pre-Holiday thin liquidity is dangerous –enter only at strong support/resistance with nearby stop losses for small losses – bias to profit taking FX: bias to safety currencies [JPY, USD, CHF in order of safety appeal] vs. risk currencies [AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR, GBP in order of risk appetite appeal], USD gains on profit taking on the recent anti-USD rally on no real news. ... mehr