 The Bond Bulletin - GDP...not so bad say Treasury futures traders
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 27 August 2010
Sometimes news that is bad, but not as bad as expected is interpreted and being "good news" and that is exactly what happened with today's GDP report. A few months ago, the markets would have cringed at a growth rate of 1.6% but with expectations for the figure to be 1.4% or much less, it was a breath of fresh air. Also a bit bearish for bonds was a slightly hotter than expected GDP deflator.
As always, Ben Bernanke testimony stole some of the thunder from economic news. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - GDP...not so bad say Treasury futures traders
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 27 August 2010
Sometimes news that is bad, but not as bad as expected is interpreted and being "good news" and that is exactly what happened with today's GDP report. A few months ago, the markets would have cringed at a growth rate of 1.6% but with expectations for the figure to be 1.4% or much less, it was a breath of fresh air. Also a bit bearish for bonds was a slightly hotter than expected GDP deflator.
As always, Ben Bernanke testimony stole some of the thunder from economic news. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stock index futures bulls might have pulled it off
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 27 August 2010
It has been a long and hard week for stock market optimists. Bad news after bad news has put unrelenting pressure on equities but today's trade might offer enough momentum to fend off a slide in the S&P to the 1,000 area.
Second quarter GDP was revised lower as expected, but the news wasn't as bad as most had anticipated and more importantly what the markets had priced in. As of now, it is believed that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 1.4% last quarter as opposed to what many believed would be much worse. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stock index futures bulls might have pulled it off
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 27 August 2010
It has been a long and hard week for stock market optimists. Bad news after bad news has put unrelenting pressure on equities but today's trade might offer enough momentum to fend off a slide in the S&P to the 1,000 area.
Second quarter GDP was revised lower as expected, but the news wasn't as bad as most had anticipated and more importantly what the markets had priced in. As of now, it is believed that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 1.4% last quarter as opposed to what many believed would be much worse. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Weekly jobless claims ignites Treasury futures
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 20 August 2010
Bond and note futures traded quietly lower throughout the night but the early morning release of new filings for unemployment hit the airwaves, all "heck" hit the fans. At one point during the session, the long bond was up over a handle and a half to touch upon the 135 level in the September futures contract. The 10-year note reached a high of 126'05 before stabilizing.
The market's complacency was all but wiped away as it discovered 500,000 new filings for unemployment benefits in the most recent week. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Options expiration halts stock index futures rally
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 20 August 2010
A number that used to be considered a C in terms of merit and validity has become a market-moving event. Weekly jobless claims (yes, that's right the volatile weekly number that was previously nearly irrelevant) has been receiving increasingly more attention.
Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits and is known for being relatively volatile. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Weekly jobless claims ignites Treasury futures
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 20 August 2010
Bond and note futures traded quietly lower throughout the night but the early morning release of new filings for unemployment hit the airwaves, all "heck" hit the fans. At one point during the session, the long bond was up over a handle and a half to touch upon the 135 level in the September futures contract. The 10-year note reached a high of 126'05 before stabilizing.
The market's complacency was all but wiped away as it discovered 500,000 new filings for unemployment benefits in the most recent week. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Options expiration halts stock index futures rally
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 20 August 2010
A number that used to be considered a C in terms of merit and validity has become a market-moving event. Weekly jobless claims (yes, that's right the volatile weekly number that was previously nearly irrelevant) has been receiving increasingly more attention.
Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits and is known for being relatively volatile. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Traders front-run the Fed
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 August 2010
After announcing that they would be using the proceeds of expiring mortgage backed securities to buy Treasuries in an attempt to keep liquidity in the marketplace, the Fed began making purchases today. The Fed purchased a total of $2.55 billion in treasuries ranging from maturities in 2014 and 2015.
In other news, housing starts and building permits were a disappointment. Each number came in considerably below expectations but also came with upward revisions from last month's reading. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stock market rally resumes
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 August 2010
Mixed economic reports weren't enough to derail optimism sparked by positive earnings from retailers Home Depot and Wal-Mart. Also giving stocks a boost was news that Potash rejected an unsolicited takeover. Mergers and acquisitions are a sign of confidence in the economy and this was reason to cheer given the recent string of negative data.
According to the Commerce Department, new homes and apartment construction rose by 1.7% in July but building permits fell by 3.1%. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Traders front-run the Fed
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 August 2010
After announcing that they would be using the proceeds of expiring mortgage backed securities to buy Treasuries in an attempt to keep liquidity in the marketplace, the Fed began making purchases today. The Fed purchased a total of $2.55 billion in treasuries ranging from maturities in 2014 and 2015.
In other news, housing starts and building permits were a disappointment. Each number came in considerably below expectations but also came with upward revisions from last month's reading. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stock market rally resumes
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 August 2010
Mixed economic reports weren't enough to derail optimism sparked by positive earnings from retailers Home Depot and Wal-Mart. Also giving stocks a boost was news that Potash rejected an unsolicited takeover. Mergers and acquisitions are a sign of confidence in the economy and this was reason to cheer given the recent string of negative data.
According to the Commerce Department, new homes and apartment construction rose by 1.7% in July but building permits fell by 3.1%. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Low yields, Treasuries might be losing luster
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 August 2010
Investors seem to be willing to look back into risky assets for better returns in recent days and weeks. After all, the U.S. dollar has given back much of its "safe haven" gains, commodities have come back into favor and the stock market has managed a way to find stability.
Accordingly, there has been a clear shift in investor sentiment and at some point this will begin to lure money out of pathetically low yielding assets such as Treasuries and even bank issued CD's. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Fed poses risk, but stock index bulls seem to have market by the horns
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 August 2010
Light volume tends to produce market "melt-ups" and that looks to be exactly what we are getting. With school starting next week in most districts, traders are trying to squeeze in one last summer vacation and that will likely drop the daily volume to the lowest levels thus far in 2010.
There weren't any government economic reports on the docket, so traders (those that showed up for work anyway) were more focused on preparing for tomorrow's FOMC meeting. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Fed poses risk, but stock index bulls seem to have market by the horns
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 August 2010
Light volume tends to produce market "melt-ups" and that looks to be exactly what we are getting. With school starting next week in most districts, traders are trying to squeeze in one last summer vacation and that will likely drop the daily volume to the lowest levels thus far in 2010.
There weren't any government economic reports on the docket, so traders (those that showed up for work anyway) were more focused on preparing for tomorrow's FOMC meeting. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Low yields, Treasuries might be losing luster
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 August 2010
Investors seem to be willing to look back into risky assets for better returns in recent days and weeks. After all, the U.S. dollar has given back much of its "safe haven" gains, commodities have come back into favor and the stock market has managed a way to find stability.
Accordingly, there has been a clear shift in investor sentiment and at some point this will begin to lure money out of pathetically low yielding assets such as Treasuries and even bank issued CD's. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Bulls come out on top...
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 July 2010
The stock rally is in jeopardy but the bulls aren't giving up easily. Despite bearish seasonals and a string of questionable economic data, the equity meltdown that some were looking for hasn't materialized.
Friday was a finicky session. Stock index futures dropped sharply on news of a slightly worse than expected GDP rate of 2.4%. It seems to have been the "sticker shock" of the drop from 3.7% to the current rate that sent some into panic mode. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Technical support and weak data trigger massive Treasury buying
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 July 2010
Bonds and notes soared into the weekend as traders squared their short positions and speculative longs entered in anticipation of further economic deterioration.
In early morning trade, equities struggled to find footing but even after an impressive rally back to unchanged, Treasuries failed to counter-act the move. Bond and note traders couldn't seem to "get over" the sharp decline in second quarter GDP. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Technical support and weak data trigger massive Treasury buying
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 July 2010
Bonds and notes soared into the weekend as traders squared their short positions and speculative longs entered in anticipation of further economic deterioration.
In early morning trade, equities struggled to find footing but even after an impressive rally back to unchanged, Treasuries failed to counter-act the move. Bond and note traders couldn't seem to "get over" the sharp decline in second quarter GDP. After previously revised growth rate of 3.7%, the advanced GDP fell to 2.4%. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Poor Michigan Sentiment = Poor Market Sentiment
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 July 2010
After three days of consolidation near technical resistance, the markets were taken down by a weaker than expected Michigan Sentiment index. Last month's reading was a mere 66.5. Investors immediately saw this as a hint of weaker consumer spending. Although this was a preliminary number and is open to revisions, the damage has been done.
Although it was Michigan Sentiment that ultimately took the market down, ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Bonds bid higher on stock collapse
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 July 2010
A weaker than expected Michigan Sentiment report broke the stock market bulls backs and sent Treasuries higher on the day. The latest reading on the index was reported at 66.5, a significant drop from the prior 76. In slightly less negative news, the CPI ticked lower by .1% but it was no match for plunging sentiment.
Investors continue to favor return of capital as opposed to return on capital. Recent action has driven the yield on the 10-year note well under 10%. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Bonds bid higher on stock collapse
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 July 2010
A weaker than expected Michigan Sentiment report broke the stock market bulls backs and sent Treasuries higher on the day. The latest reading on the index was reported at 66.5, a significant drop from the prior 76. In slightly less negative news, the CPI ticked lower by .1% but it was no match for plunging sentiment.
Investors continue to favor return of capital as opposed to return on capital. Recent action has driven the yield on the 10-year note well under 10%. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Poor Michigan Sentiment = Poor Market Sentiment
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 July 2010
After three days of consolidation near technical resistance, the markets were taken down by a weaker than expected Michigan Sentiment index. Last month's reading was a mere 66.5. Investors immediately saw this as a hint of weaker consumer spending. Although this was a preliminary number and is open to revisions, the damage has been done.
Although it was Michigan Sentiment that ultimately took the market down, ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Counter-trend Friday, can' we get follow-through Monday in Treasury Futures?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 02 July 2010
Treasuries were under pressure ahead of the non-farm payrolls data and the theme continued throughout the session despite slightly disappointing news. We use the term slightly because the numbers were poor, but weren't as poor as many traders had positioned for.
The government reported a loss of 125,000 jobs last month, with most of that being attributed to laid off census workers. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Say hello to relief rally, stock index futures?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 02 July 2010
The equity markets saw little trading volume on what could have been one of the most exciting sessions this year. Aside from temporary volatility following the employment report and in the last hour of trade, the markets spent most of the session migrating back to where they started. In the case of the September S&P, 1024 acted like a magnet.
I hope that most of you were able to get flat early in the session. As the day wore on, trading participants dropped like flies. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Say hello to relief rally, stock index futures?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 02 July 2010
The equity markets saw little trading volume on what could have been one of the most exciting sessions this year. Aside from temporary volatility following the employment report and in the last hour of trade, the markets spent most of the session migrating back to where they started. In the case of the September S&P, 1024 acted like a magnet.
I hope that most of you were able to get flat early in the session. As the day wore on, trading participants dropped like flies. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Counter-trend Friday, can' we get follow-through Monday in Treasury Futures?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 02 July 2010
Treasuries were under pressure ahead of the non-farm payrolls data and the theme continued throughout the session despite slightly disappointing news. We use the term slightly because the numbers were poor, but weren't as poor as many traders had positioned for.
The government reported a loss of 125,000 jobs last month, with most of that being attributed to laid off census workers. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - G-20 on tap
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 25 June 2010
Stocks waffled on both sides of unchanged as traders prepared for upcoming event risk. A G-20 meeting taking place over the weekend leaves the markets vulnerable to gaps on the Sunday night reopen. Adding to the risk, we are approaching the end of the quarter and funds could take the opportunity to rebalance and "window dress".
As if that wasn't enough excitement, next week's economic calendar is action packed. We will hear the latest on the Case-Shiller index, consumer confidence and the employment report on Friday.
News of the bank overhaul lead to a higher Euro and helped pull stocks from their lows. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Delayed reaction to bond friendly news
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 25 June 2010
A less than desirable revision to the GDP and weak equities failed to give Treasuries the bid they deserved early in the session. Nonetheless, as the day progressed bonds and notes moved higher in sympathy to the day's events. After all was said and done, the session was an overall wash for Treasury traders.
The third and final figure for first quarter GDP showed growth of just 2.7%. This came as a disappointment but the University of Michigan Sentiment was slightly better than expected at 76.0. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Delayed reaction to bond friendly news
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 25 June 2010
A less than desirable revision to the GDP and weak equities failed to give Treasuries the bid they deserved early in the session. Nonetheless, as the day progressed bonds and notes moved higher in sympathy to the day's events. After all was said and done, the session was an overall wash for Treasury traders.
The third and final figure for first quarter GDP showed growth of just 2.7%. This came as a disappointment but the University of Michigan Sentiment was slightly better than expected at 76.0. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - G-20 on tap
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 25 June 2010
Stocks waffled on both sides of unchanged as traders prepared for upcoming event risk. A G-20 meeting taking place over the weekend leaves the markets vulnerable to gaps on the Sunday night reopen. Adding to the risk, we are approaching the end of the quarter and funds could take the opportunity to rebalance and "window dress".
As if that wasn't enough excitement, next week's economic calendar is action packed. We will hear the latest on the Case-Shiller index, consumer confidence and the employment report on Friday.
News of the bank overhaul lead to a higher Euro and helped pull stocks from their lows. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - The summer doldrums have taken hold of Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 18 June 2010
We were reminded why most vacations in the brokerage industry are taken during the summer months. After very memorable spring trading, the Treasury complex has found itself stuck in a rut with little trading volume or price movement.
There were absolutely no economic releases, and the equity markets hugged unchanged for most of the session. Accordingly, we are scrambling to find something of substance to write about.
Next week traders are looking forward to Treasury auctions and the latest FOMC statement. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Record high gold, but stock traders looking the other way
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 18 June 2010
Gold prices settled and a fresh record high price on Friday but while the metals markets are pricing in "Armageddon" the equity markets continue to be optimistic. On Monday, we will have a better idea as to whether the positive stock trade is true bullish sentiment or simply options expiration noise.
Today's quadruple witch was a bit disappointing. It used to be one of the busiest and action filled trading days, but lately that hasn't been the case and today it certainly wasn't. Volume was nearly non-existent and the S&P spent most of the day within a 5 point range. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - The summer doldrums have taken hold of Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 18 June 2010
We were reminded why most vacations in the brokerage industry are taken during the summer months. After very memorable spring trading, the Treasury complex has found itself stuck in a rut with little trading volume or price movement.
There were absolutely no economic releases, and the equity markets hugged unchanged for most of the session. Accordingly, we are scrambling to find something of substance to write about.
Next week traders are looking forward to Treasury auctions and the latest FOMC statement. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Record high gold, but stock traders looking the other way
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 18 June 2010
Gold prices settled and a fresh record high price on Friday but while the metals markets are pricing in "Armageddon" the equity markets continue to be optimistic. On Monday, we will have a better idea as to whether the positive stock trade is true bullish sentiment or simply options expiration noise.
Today's quadruple witch was a bit disappointing. It used to be one of the busiest and action filled trading days, but lately that hasn't been the case and today it certainly wasn't. Volume was nearly non-existent and the S&P spent most of the day within a 5 point range. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - The safety trade is back!
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 June 2010
A much weaker than expected employment report forced investors to rethink their overall strategy; as a result, money immediately flowed out of equities and into Treasuries.
The headline non-farm payrolls number came in at 431,000, which in more normal circumstances would have been a success. However, it is estimated at 411,000 of those were temporary government hires (Census workers). Adding salt to the wounds of the economic bulls, the previous month's figures were revised lower. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Trend, what trend?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 June 2010
U.S. stocks were at the mercy of the bears following a weak overnight session and a disappointing employment report.
Unfortunately, it seems as though the bulls set themselves up for failure with lofty expectations for non-farm payrolls. The government reported that 431,000 jobs were added last month, but 411,000 of them were temporary government hires...which are just that, temporary. Despite the large headline number, this leaves the public sector job growth meager at best and downward revisions to previous readings didn't improve the mood on Wall Street. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - The safety trade is back!
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 04 June 2010
A much weaker than expected employment report forced investors to rethink their overall strategy; as a result, money immediately flowed out of equities and into Treasuries.
The headline non-farm payrolls number came in at 431,000, which in more normal circumstances would have been a success. However, it is estimated at 411,000 of those were temporary government hires (Census workers). Adding salt to the wounds of the economic bulls, the previous month's figures were revised lower. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Trend, what trend?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 04 June 2010
U.S. stocks were at the mercy of the bears following a weak overnight session and a disappointing employment report.
Unfortunately, it seems as though the bulls set themselves up for failure with lofty expectations for non-farm payrolls. The government reported that 431,000 jobs were added last month, but 411,000 of them were temporary government hires...which are just that, temporary. Despite the large headline number, this leaves the public sector job growth meager at best and downward revisions to previous readings didn't improve the mood on Wall Street. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Fitch downgrade of Spain temporarily pushes market lower
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 28 May 2010
The bulls seemed to be holding their own in early trade, but mid-session news of a Fitch downgrade of Spanish debt reminded investors of looming credit risks overseas. The reaction is being considered by most an overreaction given the news was relatively expected and credit rating agencies have lost credibility in recent years. Nonetheless, emotional markets, light volume and coming off of a 60 handle rally all supported a pullback. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasury positions squared ahead of long holiday
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 28 May 2010
Traders were looking forward to the Holiday weekend, but apparently four days wasn't enough. Looking at volumes and hearing from some on the CME floor, there is evidence to suggest that several "locals" and screen traders called it quits a few short hours into the trading session. We should have followed their lead.
Aside from an "overreaction" to a Fitch downgrade of Spanish debt in the equity markets, there was little action to speak of. ... mehr Fitch downgrade of Spain temporarily pushes market lower
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 28 May 2010
The bulls seemed to be holding their own in early trade, but mid-session news of a Fitch downgrade of Spanish debt reminded investors of looming credit risks overseas. The reaction is being considered by most an overreaction given the news was relatively expected and credit rating agencies have lost credibility in recent years. Nonetheless, emotional markets, light volume and coming off of a 60 handle rally all supported a pullback. ... mehr Treasury positions squared ahead of long holiday
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 28 May 2010
Traders were looking forward to the Holiday weekend, but apparently four days wasn't enough. Looking at volumes and hearing from some on the CME floor, there is evidence to suggest that several "locals" and screen traders called it quits a few short hours into the trading session. We should have followed their lead.
Aside from an "overreaction" to a Fitch downgrade of Spanish debt in the equity markets, there was little action to speak of. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Supply on tap, but can Treasuries get over Europe
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 21 May 2010
Earlier this week we urged all of our clients to get flat Treasuries because things didn't "feel" right and they still don't. Treasuries have managed to maintain an upward bias in the face of higher equities (the few bounces that we have gotten), a recovery in the Euro, this signals that there are some behind the scenes forces that are carrying a bit more weight such as emotion.
When markets become emotional, they are nearly impossible to predict. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Incredible volatility ends the week on a positive note
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 21 May 2010
The major indices ended the week on a positive note but volatility and dramatic draw downs have taken its toll. It seems as though the panic selling has been overdone for now. We can't rule out new lows a bit later this summer but we also feel as though a technical bounce is well overdue.
A majority of the selling was triggered by uncertainty in the health of the European credit markets. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Supply on tap, but can Treasuries get over Europe
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 21 May 2010
Earlier this week we urged all of our clients to get flat Treasuries because things didn't "feel" right and they still don't. Treasuries have managed to maintain an upward bias in the face of higher equities (the few bounces that we have gotten), a recovery in the Euro, this signals that there are some behind the scenes forces that are carrying a bit more weight such as emotion.
When markets become emotional, they are nearly impossible to predict. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Incredible volatility ends the week on a positive note
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 21 May 2010
The major indices ended the week on a positive note but volatility and dramatic draw downs have taken its toll. It seems as though the panic selling has been overdone for now. We can't rule out new lows a bit later this summer but we also feel as though a technical bounce is well overdue.
A majority of the selling was triggered by uncertainty in the health of the European credit markets. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Counter-trend Friday, Monday will be more telling
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 14 May 2010
Solid economic news wasn't enough to save the financial markets from the wrath of a plummeting Euro. One of the beneficiaries of the panic was Treasuries, and another was the U.S. Dollar.
The strong domestic currency will prevent foreign investors from liquidating their holdings and investors are willing to purchase U.S. fixed income products without regard to yield. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - When it rains, it pours
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 14 May 2010
Economic data had little impact on trade, it was a plummeting Euro that drove the financial markets on Friday. Despite the carnage, the major indices ended the week higher.
On this side of the pond, the numbers were positive. Retail sales beat estimates, consumer sentiment was nearly in line with expectations, and business inventories weren't a surprise.
Can mutual fund Monday live up to its reputation? ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Counter-trend Friday, Monday will be more telling
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 14 May 2010
Solid economic news wasn't enough to save the financial markets from the wrath of a plummeting Euro. One of the beneficiaries of the panic was Treasuries, and another was the U.S. Dollar.
The strong domestic currency will prevent foreign investors from liquidating their holdings and investors are willing to purchase U.S. fixed income products without regard to yield. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - When it rains, it pours
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 14 May 2010
Economic data had little impact on trade, it was a plummeting Euro that drove the financial markets on Friday. Despite the carnage, the major indices ended the week higher.
On this side of the pond, the numbers were positive. Retail sales beat estimates, consumer sentiment was nearly in line with expectations, and business inventories weren't a surprise.
Can mutual fund Monday live up to its reputation? ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries higher into the uncertain weekend
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 April 2010
Bonds and notes moved higher into what could be a weekend packed with event risk. Ratings agencies have already marked down Greece's debt to junk status and have downgraded that of Spain and Portugal. Some are waiting for an Italian debt downgrade. As a result, the relatively risk averse investment community is flocking to "quality" in the U.S. fixed income markets.
There was a substantial amount of economic data released Friday morning, most of which was bearish Treasuries (despite market action). ... mehr Heavy...really heavy, but mutual fund Monday?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 April 2010
Equities are finally being weighed down by debt concerns overseas. Even a morning full of overall positive economic wasn't enough to fend off the bears. Despite a handful of impressively wide trading days, the major indices have been range bound for nearly three weeks. The bulls are looking at this as a stepping stone for the next leg up and the bears are arguing the rally is growing tired. We think that both will be right, but in different time frames.
We are hearing other traders/analysts comparing the European debt fiasco to the "Asian Contagion" and believe that lagging indices in the Euro zone will eventually pull the U.S. markets lower. ... mehr Treasuries higher into the uncertain weekend
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 April 2010
Bonds and notes moved higher into what could be a weekend packed with event risk. Ratings agencies have already marked down Greece's debt to junk status and have downgraded that of Spain and Portugal. Some are waiting for an Italian debt downgrade. As a result, the relatively risk averse investment community is flocking to "quality" in the U.S. fixed income markets.
There was a substantial amount of economic data released Friday morning, most of which was bearish Treasuries (despite market action). ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Heavy...really heavy, but mutual fund Monday?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 April 2010
Equities are finally being weighed down by debt concerns overseas. Even a morning full of overall positive economic wasn't enough to fend off the bears. Despite a handful of impressively wide trading days, the major indices have been range bound for nearly three weeks. The bulls are looking at this as a stepping stone for the next leg up and the bears are arguing the rally is growing tired. We think that both will be right, but in different time frames. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Durable goods and home sales pressure Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 23 April 2010
The day's economic news wasn't plentiful but it packed a punch. The better than expected figures on the health of the economy put pressure on Treasuries early in the day and the complex was unable to recover.
Headline durable goods orders were in with expectations at a negative 1.3% but it was the ex-auto number of 2.8% that impressed the markets. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - TGIF
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 23 April 2010
We have never been so happy to see Friday. It has been a challenging week for both the bulls and the bears but next week won't be a cake walk. Treasury auctions, an FOMC meeting, earnings and plenty of economic data will keep the markets moving.
Our crystal ball has been defective but the markets don't honor refunds, so we will do our best given the environment. Many of the traders that I talk to have agreed that the last two or three months have been difficult for active speculators in the stock indices and we second that... ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Durable goods and home sales pressure Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 23 April 2010
The day's economic news wasn't plentiful but it packed a punch. The better than expected figures on the health of the economy put pressure on Treasuries early in the day and the complex was unable to recover.
Headline durable goods orders were in with expectations at a negative 1.3% but it was the ex-auto number of 2.8% that impressed the markets. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - TGIF
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 23 April 2010
We have never been so happy to see Friday. It has been a challenging week for both the bulls and the bears but next week won't be a cake walk. Treasury auctions, an FOMC meeting, earnings and plenty of economic data will keep the markets moving.
Our crystal ball has been defective but the markets don't honor refunds, so we will do our best given the environment. Many of the traders that I talk to have agreed that the last two or three months have been difficult for active speculators in the stock indices and we second that... ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Goldman Sachs fraud allegations trips stock rally
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 April 2010
In early morning trade it appeared to be another boring Friday but in reality it was far from uneventful. News of Goldman Sachs being charged (allegations) by the SEC with fraud sparked panicked speculation on the possibility of a "witch hunt", further fraud, forced liquidation of Paulson's hedge fund, etc. The markets sold on the Goldman news and asked questions later; the result was an intraday drawdown in the S&P of nearly 30 handles.
We are hearing, from a reliable but unconfirmed source, that this was the largest market drop on April expiration in history. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Economic data firms Treasuries, Goldman triggers rally
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 April 2010
Bonds and notes started the day in positive territory in light of overnight weakness in equities and mixed economic news. However, a shocking (or maybe not so shocking) announcement that the SEC is pressing fraud charges against Goldman Sachs gave safe haven buyers a reason to move into fixed income securities.
The Michigan Sentiment, measuring consumer confidence, was reported at a much weaker than expected 69.5; most were looking for a number closer to 75. Offsetting the news, both building permits and housing starts surprised to the upside. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Economic data firms Treasuries, Goldman triggers rally
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 April 2010
Bonds and notes started the day in positive territory in light of overnight weakness in equities and mixed economic news. However, a shocking (or maybe not so shocking) announcement that the SEC is pressing fraud charges against Goldman Sachs gave safe haven buyers a reason to move into fixed income securities.
The Michigan Sentiment, measuring consumer confidence, was reported at a much weaker than expected 69.5; most were looking for a number closer to 75. Offsetting the news, both building permits and housing starts surprised to the upside. ... mehr Goldman Sachs fraud allegations trips stock rally
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 16 April 2010
In early morning trade it appeared to be another boring Friday but in reality it was far from uneventful. News of Goldman Sachs being charged (allegations) by the SEC with fraud sparked panicked speculation on the possibility of a "witch hunt", further fraud, forced liquidation of Paulson's hedge fund, etc. The markets sold on the Goldman news and asked questions later; the result was an intraday drawdown in the S&P of nearly 30 handles.
We are hearing, from a reliable but unconfirmed source, that this was the largest market drop on April expiration in history. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Buyers come back to equities
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 April 2010
After a miraculous recovery from what could have been a doom and gloom scenario for the equity markets in yesterday's trade, the major indices were able to add to gains ahead of earnings.
The bulls are hoping that solid earnings will be the catalyst that the market needs to continue the upward momentum; and bears believe that the market will struggle to hold "frothy" levels even if earnings meet expectations. Historically, the markets have a habit of rallying ahead of earnings only to give much of the gains back once the news becomes a reality. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries close the week on a high "note"
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 April 2010
It was another slow news day and an even slower trading day. The lack of volume and excitement chased away the few traders that were actually participating in the markets.
News of a Greek downgrade and the subsequent news that a solution to the problem "will" be worked out, kept trade timid. Nonetheless, the day's price action was minimal. ... mehr Buyers come back to equities
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 April 2010
After a miraculous recovery from what could have been a doom and gloom scenario for the equity markets in yesterday's trade, the major indices were able to add to gains ahead of earnings.
The bulls are hoping that solid earnings will be the catalyst that the market needs to continue the upward momentum; and bears believe that the market will struggle to hold "frothy" levels even if earnings meet expectations. Historically, the markets have a habit of rallying ahead of earnings only to give much of the gains back once the news becomes a reality. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries close the week on a high "note"
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 09 April 2010
It was another slow news day and an even slower trading day. The lack of volume and excitement chased away the few traders that were actually participating in the markets.
News of a Greek downgrade and the subsequent news that a solution to the problem "will" be worked out, kept trade timid. Nonetheless, the day's price action was minimal. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - April Fool's rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 01 April 2010
There were very few traders at work by afternoon trade so we will keep this short and sweet...
The first day of the quarter and the first day of the month was a large success for the bulls, but it was also April Fool's day. Perhaps tomorrows holiday release of the monthly employment report will determine the market's fate. As you know, we have been wrong for the last 40 or so points of this rally but countless long and hard looks at the evidence makes it difficult to be a bull at these prices. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries suffer pre-employment report
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 01 April 2010
There were very few traders at work by afternoon trade so we will keep this short and sweet...
Bonds and notes gave back much of yesterday's rally as traders squared positions ahead of tomorrow's potential fiasco. The employment data itself makes for an exciting day, but the employment numbers on "Good Friday" complicate the situation tremendously. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - April Fool's rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 01 April 2010
There were very few traders at work by afternoon trade so we will keep this short and sweet...
The first day of the quarter and the first day of the month was a large success for the bulls, but it was also April Fool's day. Perhaps tomorrows holiday release of the monthly employment report will determine the market's fate. As you know, we have been wrong for the last 40 or so points of this rally but countless long and hard looks at the evidence makes it difficult to be a bull at these prices. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries suffer pre-employment report
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 01 April 2010
There were very few traders at work by afternoon trade so we will keep this short and sweet...
Bonds and notes gave back much of yesterday's rally as traders squared positions ahead of tomorrow's potential fiasco. The employment data itself makes for an exciting day, but the employment numbers on "Good Friday" complicate the situation tremendously. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Dead cat bounce in bonds
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 March 2010
The Treasury market enjoyed a mild bid throughout the session as the technical environment seemed to put a temporary floor under pricing. Also, month/quarter/week end buying seems to be helping the cause.
All in all it was a relatively uneventful news day. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was reported to be a little better than expected, but the final revision to the fourth quarter GDP was a little worse. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - The rally is hated, but will it last?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 March 2010
The current rally in the stock market is being touted as one of the most "hated" bull moves in history, yet it continues to set records as it climbs the wall of worry. The S&P has traded higher on nearly 70% of occasions in March, with the rare down sessions being minimal in size. On Thursday, 89 companies listed in the S&P 500 reached their 52 week highs and 5 of those are trading at all time highs. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Dead cat bounce in bonds
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 March 2010
The Treasury market enjoyed a mild bid throughout the session as the technical environment seemed to put a temporary floor under pricing. Also, month/quarter/week end buying seems to be helping the cause.
All in all it was a relatively uneventful news day. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was reported to be a little better than expected, but the final revision to the fourth quarter GDP was a little worse. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - The rally is hated, but will it last?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 March 2010
The current rally in the stock market is being touted as one of the most "hated" bull moves in history, yet it continues to set records as it climbs the wall of worry. The S&P has traded higher on nearly 70% of occasions in March, with the rare down sessions being minimal in size. On Thursday, 89 companies listed in the S&P 500 reached their 52 week highs and 5 of those are trading at all time highs. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Quadruple witch leaves stocks a bit lower
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 March 2010
Just a few short days after Greece debt woes were wiped clean from the headlines, the story popped up again. The result was a plummeting Euro and British Pound.
The stronger dollar forced metals and energies sharply lower, and the equity markets followed suit. As the markets continue to remind us, a stronger dollar translates into near-term struggles with corporate earnings due to challenges in overseas operations and decreasing demand for U.S. goods and services. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries end the week mixed
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 March 2010
Bonds and notes made an impressive attempt at a Friday rally, but the volume nor the news was able to support mid-session gains. There were absolutely no economic reports for traders to move on, making the highlight (or lowlight) of the day a speech by President Obama on healthcare.
There is a lot of supply coming down the tube. The Treasury will be auctioning $42 billion in 5-year notes on Wednesday, $32 billion in 7-year notes on Thursday and a boatload of bills on Monday. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Quadruple witch leaves stocks a bit lower
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 March 2010
Just a few short days after Greece debt woes were wiped clean from the headlines, the story popped up again. The result was a plummeting Euro and British Pound.
The stronger dollar forced metals and energies sharply lower, and the equity markets followed suit. As the markets continue to remind us, a stronger dollar translates into near-term struggles with corporate earnings due to challenges in overseas operations and decreasing demand for U.S. goods and services. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries end the week mixed
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 March 2010
Bonds and notes made an impressive attempt at a Friday rally, but the volume nor the news was able to support mid-session gains. There were absolutely no economic reports for traders to move on, making the highlight (or lowlight) of the day a speech by President Obama on healthcare.
There is a lot of supply coming down the tube. The Treasury will be auctioning $42 billion in 5-year notes on Wednesday, $32 billion in 7-year notes on Thursday and a boatload of bills on Monday. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Countertrend Friday setting up for Monday rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 March 2010
Slightly lower stocks, mixed economic news and "counter-trend" Friday poised the Treasury complex for moderate gains on the session. However, conviction was lacking and so was volume.
Retail sales were reported to be far better than expected and this put pressure on bonds early on. In fact, the market sol sharply into the data making many believe that somebody had the numbers in advance. While most were looking for a draw, sales came in at an increase of .2%; ex-autos were up a whopping .8%. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stocks flat-line but almost make history
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 March 2010
The day's economic data was mixed, the volume was light and the market was directionless. According to our sources on the CME floor, most of the locals had left for the day by mid-session and this made for extremely quiet market conditions.
The S&P has never settled higher 11 days in a row (cash or futures) but came close to doing so today. The cash S&P 500 index settled down a quarter, just under positive territory. The June futures contract traded sideways into the close but eventually settled in the green. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Countertrend Friday setting up for Monday rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 March 2010
Slightly lower stocks, mixed economic news and "counter-trend" Friday poised the Treasury complex for moderate gains on the session. However, conviction was lacking and so was volume.
Retail sales were reported to be far better than expected and this put pressure on bonds early on. In fact, the market sol sharply into the data making many believe that somebody had the numbers in advance. While most were looking for a draw, sales came in at an increase of .2%; ex-autos were up a whopping .8%. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stocks flat-line but almost make history
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 March 2010
The day's economic data was mixed, the volume was light and the market was directionless. According to our sources on the CME floor, most of the locals had left for the day by mid-session and this made for extremely quiet market conditions.
The S&P has never settled higher 11 days in a row (cash or futures) but came close to doing so today. The cash S&P 500 index settled down a quarter, just under positive territory. The June futures contract traded sideways into the close but eventually settled in the green. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Double top for stocks or double trouble?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 March 2010
The drawback of writing a newsletter with relatively strong opinions in market direction is the substantial risk of being wrong...or in this case just early (we think). Unfortunately, our crystal ball was a bit cloudy earlier this week. We were right about the rally, but didn't anticipate it moving quite this far.
Our 1125 objective in the S&P has come and gone and while we still feel like the market will see a reversal sooner rather than later, we cannot overlook the possibility of a retest of the January highs. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Better than expected jobs report slams Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 March 2010
The employment report wasn't great, but it certainly wasn't horrible either. Investors took it as a signal to move money back into stocks...and this pulled the carpet from underneath the Treasury market.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 9.7% (sadly this is seen as a good thing) but the U.S. economy is said to have lost 36,000 jobs last month. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Double top for stocks or double trouble?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 March 2010
The drawback of writing a newsletter with relatively strong opinions in market direction is the substantial risk of being wrong...or in this case just early (we think). Unfortunately, our crystal ball was a bit cloudy earlier this week. We were right about the rally, but didn't anticipate it moving quite this far.
Our 1125 objective in the S&P has come and gone and while we still feel like the market will see a reversal sooner rather than later, we cannot overlook the possibility of a retest of the January highs. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Better than expected jobs report slams Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 March 2010
The employment report wasn't great, but it certainly wasn't horrible either. Investors took it as a signal to move money back into stocks...and this pulled the carpet from underneath the Treasury market.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 9.7% (sadly this is seen as a good thing) but the U.S. economy is said to have lost 36,000 jobs last month. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Shaky housing but stable stocks
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 February 2010
Existing home sales plunged in January in the face of the government's home buyer tax credit and optimism surrounding a real estate recovery. Sales posted for January were a meager 5.05 million vs. the previous month of 5.45 million and consensus forecasts calling for 5.44 million. As a Vegas resident, these numbers don't faze me but the record low reading in the midst of government stimulus should have been a bit concerning to the market but it really wasn't.
It isn't unusual for markets to ignore fundamentals, but it does raise red flags about the rally. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries still running
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 February 2010
Bonds and notes enjoyed another day of healthy gains despite relatively stable equities. This suggests that there are factors at work other than simple portfolio allocation.
The day's news was overall bullish to neutral for Treasuries and bearish to neutral for stocks, but only one market chose to react. Fixed income products moved higher on weaker than expected existing home sales and a slightly disappointing University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Shaky housing but stable stocks
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 February 2010
Existing home sales plunged in January in the face of the government's home buyer tax credit and optimism surrounding a real estate recovery. Sales posted for January were a meager 5.05 million vs. the previous month of 5.45 million and consensus forecasts calling for 5.44 million. As a Vegas resident, these numbers don't faze me but the record low reading in the midst of government stimulus should have been a bit concerning to the market but it really wasn't.
It isn't unusual for markets to ignore fundamentals, but it does raise red flags about the rally. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin -Treasuries still running
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 26 February 2010
Bonds and notes enjoyed another day of healthy gains despite relatively stable equities. This suggests that there are factors at work other than simple portfolio allocation.
The day's news was overall bullish to neutral for Treasuries and bearish to neutral for stocks, but only one market chose to react. Fixed income products moved higher on weaker than expected existing home sales and a slightly disappointing University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Dead-cat bounce, or beginning of a rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 February 2010
Treasuries forged an impressive reversal in overnight trade and managed to hold on to gains going into the close. Even more miraculous, bonds continued to grind higher in spite of moderately stronger equity gains. This suggests that Treasuries and stocks can go higher together, but we doubt that they will have to. It appears as though the major indices could be nearing an intermediate-term high.
According to the Labor Department, inflation at the consumer level ticked up to .2%. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Reversal looming?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 February 2010
After a relentless week-long rally, the major indices finished the day in positive territory. However, we wonder if some of the day's buying can be attributed to options expiration as opposed to fundamental driven buying. Only time can determine the market's fate, but it seems as though immediate extended gains from current levels will be a challenge. Even if the rally continues, there should be a substantial amount of back and filling.
We see strong resistance in the March S&P near 1115 and again just over 1120. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Dead-cat bounce, or beginning of a rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 February 2010
Treasuries forged an impressive reversal in overnight trade and managed to hold on to gains going into the close. Even more miraculous, bonds continued to grind higher in spite of moderately stronger equity gains. This suggests that Treasuries and stocks can go higher together, but we doubt that they will have to. It appears as though the major indices could be nearing an intermediate-term high.
According to the Labor Department, inflation at the consumer level ticked up to .2%. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Reversal looming?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 19 February 2010
After a relentless week-long rally, the major indices finished the day in positive territory. However, we wonder if some of the day's buying can be attributed to options expiration as opposed to fundamental driven buying. Only time can determine the market's fate, but it seems as though immediate extended gains from current levels will be a challenge. Even if the rally continues, there should be a substantial amount of back and filling.
We see strong resistance in the March S&P near 1115 and again just over 1120. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Counter-trend Friday
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 February 2010
Today was a perfect example of a counter-trend Friday. The day's data was relatively mixed but position squaring (short covering) ahead of the long weekend managed a moderate bounce.
The University of Michigan Sentiment was reported at 73.7, a bit lower than the previous and below estimates looking for 75. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stocks waffle to close positive
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 February 2010
An overnight announcement regarding China's move to tighten bank lending triggered selling in the global indices. However, hopes of a plan to bail-out debt-consumed Greece and index rebalancing tied to the addition of Berkshire Hathaway to the S&P 500 worked in favor of stocks.
China announced an increased requirement in bank reserves for its nation's banks for the second time in two months. However, unlike the last round of tightening the markets were able to recover from the blow. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Counter-trend Friday
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 February 2010
Today was a perfect example of a counter-trend Friday. The day's data was relatively mixed but position squaring (short covering) ahead of the long weekend managed a moderate bounce.
The University of Michigan Sentiment was reported at 73.7, a bit lower than the previous and below estimates looking for 75. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Stocks waffle to close positive
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 12 February 2010
An overnight announcement regarding China's move to tighten bank lending triggered selling in the global indices. However, hopes of a plan to bail-out debt-consumed Greece and index rebalancing tied to the addition of Berkshire Hathaway to the S&P 500 worked in favor of stocks.
China announced an increased requirement in bank reserves for its nation's banks for the second time in two months. However, unlike the last round of tightening the markets were able to recover from the blow. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Flight to quality bid in Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 February 2010
Although the non-farm payrolls data was reported to be in line with expectations, it was an action packed end to the trading week. The day's economic news leaned lower in Treasuries but a volatile stock session and sovereign debt risk issues prompted some flight to quality buying.
According to the government, the U.S. economy lost 20,000 private sector jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 9.7%. Like this pro football player says...what is everyone crying about? ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Panic selling in equities followed by panicked buying
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 February 2010
After melting through 10,000 with ease, the Dow clawed back on the close to settle slightly above. The March Dow futures contract failed to reach the milestone but it is clear that there will be no free lunches for the bears.
There are no shortages of hedge fund blowups and many believe that it was the liquidation of leveraged commodity and stock positions that enabled such a dramatic fall from grace. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Panic selling in equities followed by panicked buying
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 February 2010
After melting through 10,000 with ease, the Dow clawed back on the close to settle slightly above. The March Dow futures contract failed to reach the milestone but it is clear that there will be no free lunches for the bears.
There are no shortages of hedge fund blowups and many believe that it was the liquidation of leveraged commodity and stock positions that enabled such a dramatic fall from grace. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Flight to quality bid in Treasuries
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 05 February 2010
Although the non-farm payrolls data was reported to be in line with expectations, it was an action packed end to the trading week. The day's economic news leaned lower in Treasuries but a volatile stock session and sovereign debt risk issues prompted some flight to quality buying.
According to the government, the U.S. economy lost 20,000 private sector jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 9.7%. Like this pro football player says...what is everyone crying about? ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Wishy washy stocks
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 22 January 2010
The major indices faced a sea of uncertainly coming into the session. With stock prices at what many consider to be "bubble" like prices thanks to government stimulus, fear of a large sell-off was popular among traders and analysts. In fact, we had heard that many of the market makers in the S&P options pits were reluctant to take the other side of "paper" (retail traders) orders to buy puts because this would mean that the market maker would be exposed to unlimited risk of a short put. Of course they can hedge their risk by selling a futures contract, but with the markets at a major crossroads there was also risk of a quick and unexpected rally. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Toppy Treasuries or just another pause in the rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 22 January 2010
It was a slow news day and this left bond and note traders focused on the direction of the equity markets as well as Ben Bernanke's re-confirmation as Fed Chair. The session can best be described as mixed but it was the short-end of the curve that seemed to keep the complex up. We had noted that it was the 10-year note that lead the 30-year higher and we will need the note to turn around if the long bond is going to correct. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Toppy Treasuries or just another pause in the rally?
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 22 January 2010
It was a slow news day and this left bond and note traders focused on the direction of the equity markets as well as Ben Bernanke's re-confirmation as Fed Chair. The session can best be described as mixed but it was the short-end of the curve that seemed to keep the complex up. We had noted that it was the 10-year note that lead the 30-year higher and we will need the note to turn around if the long bond is going to correct. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Wishy washy stocks
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 22 January 2010
The major indices faced a sea of uncertainly coming into the session. With stock prices at what many consider to be "bubble" like prices thanks to government stimulus, fear of a large sell-off was popular among traders and analysts. In fact, we had heard that many of the market makers in the S&P options pits were reluctant to take the other side of "paper" (retail traders) orders to buy puts because this would mean that the market maker would be exposed to unlimited risk of a short put. Of course they can hedge their risk by selling a futures contract, but with the markets at a major crossroads there was also risk of a quick and unexpected rally. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Rolling, rolling, rolling
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 15 January 2010
Stocks rolled over for option expiration and while there is always some risk of a retest of the highs, this market doesn't seem to have the same drive as it once had. The bull trend is still in tact, but we feel like that could be coming to a painful end in the near future.
The seasonal top has come and gone, and perhaps so has the actual market high. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Short covering rally ensues
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 15 January 2010
Short covering in light of a struggling equity market and relief over a solid 30 year bond auction enabled the Treasury rally that we have been waiting for. As is usually the case with bonds (and markets in general), just as the bulls begin doubting their stance the market moves higher.
If you had been following the short bond put trade, see details in regards to the exit below. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Rolling, rolling, rolling
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 15 January 2010
Stocks rolled over for option expiration and while there is always some risk of a retest of the highs, this market doesn't seem to have the same drive as it once had. The bull trend is still in tact, but we feel like that could be coming to a painful end in the near future.
The seasonal top has come and gone, and perhaps so has the actual market high. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Short covering rally ensues
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 15 January 2010
Short covering in light of a struggling equity market and relief over a solid 30 year bond auction enabled the Treasury rally that we have been waiting for. As is usually the case with bonds (and markets in general), just as the bulls begin doubting their stance the market moves higher.
If you had been following the short bond put trade, see details in regards to the exit below. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - On hold until non-farm
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 07 January 2010
Treasuries attempted a mid-session rally but pressure from the less than horrible expectations of tomorrows jobs data and fresh supply news kept buying at a minimum.
The Treasury announced that it ill be issuing $26 billion in 1-years, $40 billion in 3-years, $10 billion in 10-year TIPS and will be reopening $21 billion in 10 years notes and another $13 billion in 30-year bonds. There weren't any large surprises but the reminder kept a cap on any upside momentum. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Non-farm looming, quiet trade
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 07 January 2010
Traders showed little enthusiasm ahead of tomorrow's event risk. Although most analysts are calling for the non-farm numbers to flat line (come in near zero) others are calling for large misses in either direction. One thing is for sure...the tension is building.
Large events such as this are often the catalyst for a market reversal. As poor as the numbers were in 2009, it seems like anything under 100,000 job losses would be seen as a victory for the recovery. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - On hold until non-farm
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 07 January 2010
Treasuries attempted a mid-session rally but pressure from the less than horrible expectations of tomorrows jobs data and fresh supply news kept buying at a minimum.
The Treasury announced that it ill be issuing $26 billion in 1-years, $40 billion in 3-years, $10 billion in 10-year TIPS and will be reopening $21 billion in 10 years notes and another $13 billion in 30-year bonds. There weren't any large surprises but the reminder kept a cap on any upside momentum. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Non-farm looming, quiet trade
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 07 January 2010
Traders showed little enthusiasm ahead of tomorrow's event risk. Although most analysts are calling for the non-farm numbers to flat line (come in near zero) others are calling for large misses in either direction. One thing is for sure...the tension is building.
Large events such as this are often the catalyst for a market reversal. As poor as the numbers were in 2009, it seems like anything under 100,000 job losses would be seen as a victory for the recovery. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Mutual fund Monday doesn't last
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 29 December 2009
Monday's have been known for gains as mutual funds tend to expend excess capital on the first trading day of the week; however, in the first session after Christmas the buying fell short of expectations. Early morning gains were moderate and failed to keep the major indices in the green.
According to our contacts on the floor, today was the slowest trading day that they have "ever" seen. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries in freefall in light volume
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 29 December 2009
A resilient stock market, a stronger dollar and decent economic data has put pressure on bond and notes. In this newsletter we have mentioned seasonal strength and vowed to be bulls on dips but we have to admit that we were a little surprised by the strength of the selling pressure. However, we acknowledge that holiday volume might have had something to do with last week's plunge. Additionally, we have not completely given up on a rally. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries in freefall in light volume
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 29 December 2009
A resilient stock market, a stronger dollar and decent economic data has put pressure on bond and notes. In this newsletter we have mentioned seasonal strength and vowed to be bulls on dips but we have to admit that we were a little surprised by the strength of the selling pressure. However, we acknowledge that holiday volume might have had something to do with last week's plunge. Additionally, we have not completely given up on a rally. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Mutual fund Monday doesn't last
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 28 December 2009
Monday's have been known for gains as mutual funds tend to expend excess capital on the first trading day of the week; however, in the first session after Christmas the buying fell short of expectations. Early morning gains were moderate and failed to keep the major indices in the green.
According to our contacts on the floor, today was the slowest trading day that they have "ever" seen. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Option expiration selling, but still range bound
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 December 2009
We are on our way to Chicago, where we will be working from a remote office for all of next week, therefore I have no choice but to keep today's comments short and sweet.
An overnight sell-off and an "unexpected" jump in unemployment claims put a burden on trade early and the market never really recovered. Also holding stocks under water was a jump in the dollar vs. the other major currencies. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin - Treasuries on the move, yields beaten down
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 December 2009
We are on our way to Chicago, where we will be working from a remote office for all of next week, therefore I have no choice but to keep today's comments short and sweet.
The Philly Fed index was reported at 20.4, better than the expected 16 and leading economic indicators showed a .9% which was triple the previous reading.
Nonetheless, even better than expected economic data wasn't enough to rescue bond and note bears from a technically oversold market. ... mehr The Stock Index Report - Option expiration selling, but still range bound
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 December 2009
We are on our way to Chicago, where we will be working from a remote office for all of next week, therefore I have no choice but to keep today's comments short and sweet.
An overnight sell-off and an "unexpected" jump in unemployment claims put a burden on trade early and the market never really recovered. Also holding stocks under water was a jump in the dollar vs. the other major currencies. ... mehr Treasuries on the move, yields beaten down
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 17 December 2009
We are on our way to Chicago, where we will be working from a remote office for all of next week, therefore I have no choice but to keep today's comments short and sweet.
The Philly Fed index was reported at 20.4, better than the expected 16 and leading economic indicators showed a .9% which was triple the previous reading.
Nonetheless, even better than expected economic data wasn't enough to rescue bond and note bears from a technically oversold market. ... mehr The Bond Bulletin by Carley Garner
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 13 December 2009
Better than expected economic data and gave bears an edge and they took full advantage. After peaking near 123 a few short weeks ago, the 30-year bond has given back nearly all of November's gains. At the time of this writing, the long bond was nearly 6 handles from its recent highs. This is an incredibly large move in a short period of time but we can't help but feel like the move has been overblown.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment pointed toward an improvement in attitude toward financial stability and is seen as a welcomed catalyst for holiday shoppers. ... mehr The Stock Index Report by Carley Garner
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 13 December 2009
Stocks grind higher
The equity markets posted modest gains on another round of positive economic data. The buying seems to be slow paced and signals a potentially tired market. However, light volume ahead of the holiday and option expiration might work in favor of the bulls.
The Commerce Department reported a 1.3% increase in November retail sales. ... mehr
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