 The Grain Report - Get Ready
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 September 2010
On Friday, September 10 , at 7:30 AM central time the U.S.D.A. will release its monthly crop report . This report as well as the next in October will be two of the most anxiously awaited and traded reports of the last two years, due to its widely and varied opinions on its results. I have spent the weeks prior, preparing you for the price action going into the report with a common theme that the market will trade fear before fact. That the fear is the report could be very bullish, therefore no one will want to be short and speculators will want to buy long. ... read more Get Ready
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 September 2010
On Friday, September 10 , at 7:30 AM central time the U.S.D.A. will release its monthly crop report . This report as well as the next in October will be two of the most anxiously awaited and traded reports of the last two years, due to its widely and varied opinions on its results. I have spent the weeks prior, preparing you for the price action going into the report with a common theme that the market will trade fear before fact. That the fear is the report could be very bullish, therefore no one will want to be short and speculators will want to buy long. ... read more The Grain Report - Seconday Reports
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 08 September 2010
..with the big crop report by the U.S.D.A. Friday at 7:30 AM central time , it is easy to ignore the small ones this week , but don't. Once supply side fundamentals are known, demand will become the sole driving force. Our weekly export inspection report came out Tuesday at 10 AM central time, one day delay due to the holiday. It put wheat inspections for near term export at 22 million bushels versus 27 the week prior but over a very strong four-week average of 20. Considering we have a monster crop report this Friday and importers usually back away the week of its release, these are good demand numbers. ... read more Seconday Reports
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 08 September 2010
..with the big crop report by the U.S.D.A. Friday at 7:30 AM central time , it is easy to ignore the small ones this week , but don't. Once supply side fundamentals are known, demand will become the sole driving force. Our weekly export inspection report came out Tuesday at 10 AM central time, one day delay due to the holiday. It put wheat inspections for near term export at 22 million bushels versus 27 the week prior but over a very strong four-week average of 20. Considering we have a monster crop report this Friday and importers usually back away the week of its release, these are good demand numbers. ... read more The Grain Report - Three Days
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 September 2010
We're at a very interesting point of the year in grains. Harvest is beginning so were equally hearing as much bullish yield news as bearish. The Bears talk of the miracle Of biogenetic seeds while the Bulls look at the weather being too hot and dry in the southern Delta and Eastern Grain belt to see anything other than lower yields. All the weekly crop condition reports each Monday now go to the sidelines as funds look to the harvest for final crop variances. Next week all attention turns to the Friday, September 10 U.S.D.A. monthly crop report. ... read more The Grain Report - Three Days
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 September 2010
We're at a very interesting point of the year in grains. Harvest is beginning so were equally hearing as much bullish yield news as bearish. The Bears talk of the miracle Of biogenetic seeds while the Bulls look at the weather being too hot and dry in the southern Delta and Eastern Grain belt to see anything other than lower yields. All the weekly crop condition reports each Monday now go to the sidelines as funds look to the harvest for final crop variances. Next week all attention turns to the Friday, September 10 U.S.D.A. monthly crop report. ... read more The Grain Report - What A Start
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 31 August 2010
WHAT A START………..We started the week's reports with our weekly export inspection report .This report is important because it's a gauge of demand. We have 2 reports each week that the government informs us exactly how demand is going. Once the supply side of the market is known, then demand will become the driving force weekly export inspection report comes every Monday at 10 A.M. Central Time.
Wheat inspections were 25 million bushels and that was up from last years 16m.b. bushels and our four-week average of 19m.b. ... read more The Grain Report - What A Start
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 31 August 2010
WHAT A START………..We started the week's reports with our weekly export inspection report .This report is important because it's a gauge of demand. We have 2 reports each week that the government informs us exactly how demand is going. Once the supply side of the market is known, then demand will become the driving force weekly export inspection report comes every Monday at 10 A.M. Central Time.
Wheat inspections were 25 million bushels and that was up from last years 16m.b. bushels and our four-week average of 19m.b. ... read more The Grain Report - Another Dip- Maybe-Maybe not
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 August 2010
Thursday brought us our weekly export sales report. Wheat sales were strong at 1.077 M.M.T. Key world buyer Egypt was in for 135 T.M.T. That’s going to be the key to near and long term U.S. exports thru year end as Egypt last year solely bought Russian wheat and snubbed their old friend and trading partner the U.S. Now we’re their buddy again as Russia suspended wheat exports until December 31 due to drought. The Egypt business is the tie breaker in world business as they import more wheat each month than any other country. ... read more Another Dip- Maybe-Maybe not
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 August 2010
Thursday brought us our weekly export sales report. Wheat sales were strong at 1.077 M.M.T. Key world buyer Egypt was in for 135 T.M.T. That’s going to be the key to near and long term U.S. exports thru year end as Egypt last year solely bought Russian wheat and snubbed their old friend and trading partner the U.S. Now we’re their buddy again as Russia suspended wheat exports until December 31 due to drought. The Egypt business is the tie breaker in world business as they import more wheat each month than any other country. ... read more The Grain Report - Month ending looming
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 24 August 2010
We started Monday with our weekly export inspection report at 10 am central time showing 21.4 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the u.s.d.a. unchanged from the week prior, up from a year ago of 17.8 and 4 week average of 18 m.b. The number is bullish in the big picture of strengthening demand off world production short falls but not a big enough number on the week to suggest panic buying.
Corn inspections were 37.6 m.b versus 32.8 the week prior and 4 week average of 36 m.b. ... read more The Grain Report - Month ending looming
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 24 August 2010
We started Monday with our weekly export inspection report at 10 am central time showing 21.4 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the u.s.d.a. unchanged from the week prior, up from a year ago of 17.8 and 4 week average of 18 m.b. The number is bullish in the big picture of strengthening demand off world production short falls but not a big enough number on the week to suggest panic buying.
Corn inspections were 37.6 m.b versus 32.8 the week prior and 4 week average of 36 m.b. ... read more The Grain Report - Seasonal winning
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 August 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out as big on the demand side as expected. Wheat sales were 1.412 m.m.t. a new marketing year high since June 1st the beginning of wheat’s marketing year. This was 63% over our strengthening four week average. Biggest buyer was number one world wheat importer Egypt in for 594 t.m.t. Well, Egypt who snubbed the U.S. last year for Russian wheat, has become our good trading buddy again as Russia has suspended exports. ... read more The Grain Report - Seasonal winning
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 August 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out as big on the demand side as expected. Wheat sales were 1.412 m.m.t. a new marketing year high since June 1st the beginning of wheat’s marketing year. This was 63% over our strengthening four week average. Biggest buyer was number one world wheat importer Egypt in for 594 t.m.t. Well, Egypt who snubbed the U.S. last year for Russian wheat, has become our good trading buddy again as Russia has suspended exports. ... read more The Grain Report - Push to Buy
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 17 August 2010
Let’s cover our first demand report of the week. As demand will be the driving force for futures after the U.S. crop is in and known and the final eastern European winter wheat plantings, weather permitting . Mondays 10:00a.m. Central time weekly export inspection report came out telling us how much of each grain was asked to be inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near term shipment. Corn sales were 31.1 million bushels versus 44 the week prior, 45 a year ago and four week average of 36 m.b. Friendly exports are 30 to 39 m.b. and over 40 bullish. Were on the low end of what’s considered good export demand. ... read more The Grain Report - Push to Buy
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 17 August 2010
Let’s cover our first demand report of the week. As demand will be the driving force for futures after the U.S. crop is in and known and the final eastern European winter wheat plantings, weather permitting . Mondays 10:00a.m. Central time weekly export inspection report came out telling us how much of each grain was asked to be inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near term shipment. Corn sales were 31.1 million bushels versus 44 the week prior, 45 a year ago and four week average of 36 m.b. Friendly exports are 30 to 39 m.b. and over 40 bullish. Were on the low end of what’s considered good export demand. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. SEZ
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 13 August 2010
Thursday’s storm of reports began with weekly exports sales report, telling us how much of each grain was sold for future shipment, corn exports were 1.200 m.m.t. old and new crop sales. The new crop year for corn and beans starts September 1st. So, they combine the two to get a good export feel. Key Asian customers that account for 70% of our exportable feed grains were in for 625 t.m.t. of the total. It’s not an overly bullish number but consistent with a record export pace and a good number prior a U.S.D.A. crop report when importers usually back off. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. SEZ
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 13 August 2010
Thursday’s storm of reports began with weekly exports sales report, telling us how much of each grain was sold for future shipment, corn exports were 1.200 m.m.t. old and new crop sales. The new crop year for corn and beans starts September 1st. So, they combine the two to get a good export feel. Key Asian customers that account for 70% of our exportable feed grains were in for 625 t.m.t. of the total. It’s not an overly bullish number but consistent with a record export pace and a good number prior a U.S.D.A. crop report when importers usually back off. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. Report next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 11 August 2010
We started Monday with our weekly export inspection report showing corn inspected for near term export was 41.9 million bushels up from 33.9 the week prior and strong four week average of 36 m.b. As always, 30 to 39 m.b. is demand friendly and anything over 40 m.b. bullish for near term demand. Soybean inspections were 7.1 m.b. versus 10.6 the week prior and four week average of 6 m.b. Clearly corn and bean sales this strong off last week’s new high prices on the year suggest some panic buying from endusers getting some coverage on fear another 2008 price year is building. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. Report next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 11 August 2010
We started Monday with our weekly export inspection report showing corn inspected for near term export was 41.9 million bushels up from 33.9 the week prior and strong four week average of 36 m.b. As always, 30 to 39 m.b. is demand friendly and anything over 40 m.b. bullish for near term demand. Soybean inspections were 7.1 m.b. versus 10.6 the week prior and four week average of 6 m.b. Clearly corn and bean sales this strong off last week’s new high prices on the year suggest some panic buying from endusers getting some coverage on fear another 2008 price year is building. ... read more The Grain Report - Wheat worries
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 06 August 2010
Our export sales report Thursday showed the effects of world grain production problems. Wheat exports last week were 854 t.m.t. up 61% from the four week average and new crop sales for after June 1, 2011 were 572 t.m.t. New crop year sales are unheard of this time of year but long term wheat production and availability remain in question. Total sales were 1.426 m.m.t. with sales to every corner of the earth and Egypt was in for the second consecutive week after avoiding U.S. wheat the past season as they bought heavily on Russian ports. Sales begin to pile up at U.S. ports as the U.S. is the number one port of origin for quantity and quality wheat. ... read more The Grain Report - Wheat worries
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 06 August 2010
Our export sales report Thursday showed the effects of world grain production problems. Wheat exports last week were 854 t.m.t. up 61% from the four week average and new crop sales for after June 1, 2011 were 572 t.m.t. New crop year sales are unheard of this time of year but long term wheat production and availability remain in question. Total sales were 1.426 m.m.t. with sales to every corner of the earth and Egypt was in for the second consecutive week after avoiding U.S. wheat the past season as they bought heavily on Russian ports. Sales begin to pile up at U.S. ports as the U.S. is the number one port of origin for quantity and quality wheat. ... read more The Grain Report - New Month
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 03 August 2010
We started the week’s reports with our Monday weekly export inspection report at 10:00a.m. central time. Wheat inspected for near term export was 22 million bushels, up from 15.9 the week prior, 13.7 a year ago and four week average of 17 m.b. No surprise here as importers concerned about dry wheat fields in Europe and Russian grain prairies enter to garner supplies in case prices continue higher. Note importers have little to no wheat reserves due to record inventories on exporter ports. ... read more The Grain Report - New Month
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 03 August 2010
We started the week’s reports with our Monday weekly export inspection report at 10:00a.m. central time. Wheat inspected for near term export was 22 million bushels, up from 15.9 the week prior, 13.7 a year ago and four week average of 17 m.b. No surprise here as importers concerned about dry wheat fields in Europe and Russian grain prairies enter to garner supplies in case prices continue higher. Note importers have little to no wheat reserves due to record inventories on exporter ports. They have been very comfortable the last 10 months buying hand to mouth as needed and letting exporting countries fat with inventory sit on it and pay the cost of storage. ... read more The Grain Report - Weather over there
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 30 July 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out ahead of the open. Wheat sales were 919 t.m.t. versus 382 t.m.t. the week prior and four week average of 405. This was the highest weekly sales number since October of 2007. With wheat making a $1.50 four week high last week, you would think importers would back away and wait for better cash prices; instead they come in with panic buying. Their fear is if we don’t buy wheat at $6, we could end up paying $7 or $8. The driving force is production problems with major producing countries. ... read more The Grain Report - Weather over there
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 30 July 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out ahead of the open. Wheat sales were 919 t.m.t. versus 382 t.m.t. the week prior and four week average of 405. This was the highest weekly sales number since October of 2007. With wheat making a $1.50 four week high last week, you would think importers would back away and wait for better cash prices; instead they come in with panic buying. Their fear is if we don’t buy wheat at $6, we could end up paying $7 or $8. The driving force is production problems with major producing countries. ... read more The Grain Report - Weather neutral
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 July 2010
Monday’s first report came on the demand side with our weekly export inspection reports. Wheat showed 15.4 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near term export, down from 23.5 the week prior and four week average of 17.5 m.b. The decline is as simple as importers see record U.S. stocks at 950 m.b. with last week’s high finishing off a 1.60 four week rally. Importers took a safe bet to back off and look for a break. But, the rally was not about demand rather than trend following funds getting out of their record short position that was 77 thousand short four weeks ago and entering this week short 17 thousand contracts. ... read more The Grain Report - Weather neutral
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 July 2010
Monday’s first report came on the demand side with our weekly export inspection reports. Wheat showed 15.4 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near term export, down from 23.5 the week prior and four week average of 17.5 m.b. The decline is as simple as importers see record U.S. stocks at 950 m.b. with last week’s high finishing off a 1.60 four week rally. Importers took a safe bet to back off and look for a break. But, the rally was not about demand rather than trend following funds getting out of their record short position that was 77 thousand short four weeks ago and entering this week short 17 thousand contracts. ... read more The Grain Report - Mixed news
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 July 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out putting wheat exports last week at 382 t.m.t. up 24% from the previous week. This suggest that some buying for insurance against falling world production may be beginning. With 950 m.b. sitting in U.S. storage there’s no threat of running out the next 12 months but fear of continued world production declines may lead more end users to move from hand to mouth buying as needed to buying 10% more to lay aside as were still at fair value on prices. The 2008 record high prices are not far removed from trader’s thoughts. For now, the number is neutral to demand but suggests future weeks could come in higher. ... read more The Grain Report - Mixed news
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 July 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out putting wheat exports last week at 382 t.m.t. up 24% from the previous week. This suggest that some buying for insurance against falling world production may be beginning. With 950 m.b. sitting in U.S. storage there’s no threat of running out the next 12 months but fear of continued world production declines may lead more end users to move from hand to mouth buying as needed to buying 10% more to lay aside as were still at fair value on prices. The 2008 record high prices are not far removed from trader’s thoughts. For now, the number is neutral to demand but suggests future weeks could come in higher. ... read more The Grain Report - Weather changes
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 July 2010
Let’s cover our demand report first. Our weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00 a.m. central time Monday showing 22.4 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near terms export versus 14.3 the week prior four week average of 14.5 m.b. Even though our 950 m.b. ending stocks are double recent years, we have digested and priced it in with recent lows and a surge in demand may further encourage trend following funds to continue to buy back what 5 weeks ago was a record short 77thousand contracts and now a short 37 thousand contracts. With a string of wheat exporting countries now suffering crop problems, ... read more The Grain Report - Weather changes
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 July 2010
Let’s cover our demand report first. Our weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00 a.m. central time Monday showing 22.4 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near terms export versus 14.3 the week prior four week average of 14.5 m.b. Even though our 950 m.b. ending stocks are double recent years, we have digested and priced it in with recent lows and a surge in demand may further encourage trend following funds to continue to buy back what 5 weeks ago was a record short 77thousand contracts and now a short 37 thousand contracts. With a string of wheat exporting countries now suffering crop problems, ... read more Here comes the heat
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 July 2010
The Grain Report, Friday July 16, 2010
Lets talk demand first before we address the heat on the way. Our weekly export sales report came out Thursday showing 309 t.m.t. of wheat was sold last week down 40% from the week prior. So, demand remains weak but trend following funds continue to buy back previously purchased positions that four weeks ago were a record 77 thousand shorts and entering this week 53 thousand shorts held. Monday’s position sheet after this week’s buying should show their short only about 38 to 40 thousand contracts. ... read more The Grain Report - Here comes the heat
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 July 2010
Lets talk demand first before we address the heat on the way. Our weekly export sales report came out Thursday showing 309 t.m.t. of wheat was sold last week down 40% from the week prior. So, demand remains weak but trend following funds continue to buy back previously purchased positions that four weeks ago were a record 77 thousand shorts and entering this week 53 thousand shorts held. Monday’s position sheet after this week’s buying should show their short only about 38 to 40 thousand contracts. ... read more The Grain Report - Back home new week
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 13 July 2010
I’m glad to be back from my week long vacation as so much excitement abounds this time of year in the grains. But, I put you on cruise control last week as my last report before I left July 1st gave you everything you needed to know about the grain markets movements from Friday July2 to Friday July 9th. I simply said no one will want to be short entering the July 4th week and speculators will buy long on fear that the bullish June 30 crop report on acres planted and stocks on hand was perceived so bullish that it told the trade the July 9 monthly U.S.D.A. Crop report could be bullish as well. This meant fear to shorts who had to cover or buy out of short held positions while speculators buy. ... read more The Grain Report - Back home new week
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 13 July 2010
I’m glad to be back from my week long vacation as so much excitement abounds this time of year in the grains. But, I put you on cruise control last week as my last report before I left July 1st gave you everything you needed to know about the grain markets movements from Friday July2 to Friday July 9th. I simply said no one will want to be short entering the July 4th week and speculators will buy long on fear that the bullish June 30 crop report on acres planted and stocks on hand was perceived so bullish that it told the trade the July 9 monthly U.S.D.A. Crop report could be bullish as well. This meant fear to shorts who had to cover or buy out of short held positions while speculators buy. ... read more The Grain Report - Weather Play
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 01 July 2010
As we head into July we meet a month that brings great apprehension to farmers and eventual end-users of grain such as exports, feeders, and ethanol users. These last three need large stocks at low prices to turn a profit. This fear in July comes as the crop yield and price is determined by something out of their control, “WEATHER.” Farmers spent all June planting record corn and bean acres to keep pace with another year of world record demand with the optimistic saying ending stocks will remain safe if timely rains come. Farmers are quick to respond with, “IT’S NOT WHAT YOU PLANT, BUT WHAT YOU GROW.” ... read more Weather Play
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 01 July 2010
As we head into July we meet a month that brings great apprehension to farmers and eventual end-users of grain such as exports, feeders, and ethanol users. These last three need large stocks at low prices to turn a profit. This fear in July comes as the crop yield and price is determined by something out of their control, “WEATHER.” Farmers spent all June planting record corn and bean acres to keep pace with another year of world record demand with the optimistic saying ending stocks will remain safe if timely rains come. Farmers are quick to respond with, “IT’S NOT WHAT YOU PLANT, BUT WHAT YOU GROW.” ... read more The Grain Report - Progress Before Acres
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 29 June 2010
After the close of trading Monday our crop progress and condition reports came out. Winter wheat crop is now 38% harvested, equal the five year average for this time. 64% of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition down 1% for the second consecutive week and the lowest rating since 64% on the first report. Yet, we are well over last year’s crop of 45%. Only Kansas our number one producer at 56% G-E came in under the national average with other key producers at or over 64%. There’s nothing here to excite the market but I do expect Kansas quality to remain poor. ... read more Progress Before Acres
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 29 June 2010
After the close of trading Monday our crop progress and condition reports came out. Winter wheat crop is now 38% harvested, equal the five year average for this time. 64% of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition down 1% for the second consecutive week and the lowest rating since 64% on the first report. Yet, we are well over last year’s crop of 45%. Only Kansas our number one producer at 56% G-E came in under the national average with other key producers at or over 64%. There’s nothing here to excite the market but I do expect Kansas quality to remain poor. ... read more The Grain Report - Acrage Numbers Next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 25 June 2010
Last report of the week came out with our Thursday weekly export sales report. Wheat sales continue good as our winter wheat harvest is underway making for availability at value. Sales last week were 725,000 thousand metric tons versus 584 a year ago with Asian markets in for half the amount but as usual our record ending stocks of 950 million bushels double prior-years leaves this good harvest demand ignored by traders. ... read more Acrage Numbers Next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 25 June 2010
Last report of the week came out with our Thursday weekly export sales report. Wheat sales continue good as our winter wheat harvest is underway making for availability at value. Sales last week were 725,000 thousand metric tons versus 584 a year ago with Asian markets in for half the amount but as usual our record ending stocks of 950 million bushels double prior-years leaves this good harvest demand ignored by traders.
Wheat strength in pricing continues from short covering by trend following funds who entered this week short record 78,000 contracts. ... read more The Grain Report - Rain decay
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 22 June 2010
We started the week Monday with sharp opening gains as they priced in strong outside markets spilling over into grains with higher stocks and crude oil and energies. But, after Mondays high hit a two week 36 cent rally for corn, 42 cent two week bean rally and 45 cent wheat top put in, the old adage, if I made a thousand dollars, somebody made a million, came to play. Trader’s fat with profits went to the bank. Mondays rally added in that ever present doubt on weather as well. ... read more The Grain Report - Rain decay
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 22 June 2010
We started the week Monday with sharp opening gains as they priced in strong outside markets spilling over into grains with higher stocks and crude oil and energies. But, after Mondays high hit a two week 36 cent rally for corn, 42 cent two week bean rally and 45 cent wheat top put in, the old adage, if I made a thousand dollars, somebody made a million, came to play. Trader’s fat with profits went to the bank. Mondays rally added in that ever present doubt on weather as well. ... read more The Grain Report - Hot, Sunny, and Wet
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 18 June 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report turned seasonal for wheat with 959 T.M.T. sold for the new wheat marketing year which began June 1st. This was over the week prior of 187 T.M.T. On Monday our crop progress report showed 9% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested. This started the demand. Importers worldwide know June is when U.S. harvest begins and they should begin to buy. I noted on my report several times since last February that though demand will remain weak off record U.S. and world stocks but demand will pick up in June. It’s seasonal for the market. ... read more The Grain Report - Hot, Sunny, and Wet
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 18 June 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report turned seasonal for wheat with 959 T.M.T. sold for the new wheat marketing year which began June 1st. This was over the week prior of 187 T.M.T. On Monday our crop progress report showed 9% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested. This started the demand. Importers worldwide know June is when U.S. harvest begins and they should begin to buy. I noted on my report several times since last February that though demand will remain weak off record U.S. and world stocks but demand will pick up in June. It’s seasonal for the market. ... read more The Grain Report - Reports and Reports
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 15 June 2010
Our weekly export inspection report we used to gauge near term demand came out at 10:00a.m. Central time showing 14 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near term shipment, off from 16.8 the week prior, and equal a weak four week average. Though demand in the big picture remains weak, wheat Monday pushed 10 cents higher on thoughts of demand picking up as our major export competition Canada announced their wheat crop planting will fall 18% this year. This would be the smallest wheat planting in 31 years. ... read more The Grain Report - Reports and Reports
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 15 June 2010
Our weekly export inspection report we used to gauge near term demand came out at 10:00a.m. Central time showing 14 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near term shipment, off from 16.8 the week prior, and equal a weak four week average. Though demand in the big picture remains weak, wheat Monday pushed 10 cents higher on thoughts of demand picking up as our major export competition Canada announced their wheat crop planting will fall 18% this year. This would be the smallest wheat planting in 31 years. ... read more The Grain Report - Wow Corn
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 11 June 2010
Thursday brought a wealth of report information. Our first report was the weekly export sales report. For wheat it showed 118 T.M.T were sold last week versus 353 the year prior. The new marketing year for wheat began June 1st. this is a neutral to negative number from a demand stance. Ignore it. Soybean sales came in at 420T.M.T sold for old crop delivery before the new marketing year for beans and corn September 1st. Key buyer China was absent but increases to Asian Chinese neighbors rose as China is not exporting to neighbors and keeping it home leaving Asian neighbors turning to U.S. ports. ... read more The Grain Report - Wow Corn
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 11 June 2010
Thursday brought a wealth of report information. Our first report was the weekly export sales report. For wheat it showed 118 T.M.T were sold last week versus 353 the year prior. The new marketing year for wheat began June 1st. this is a neutral to negative number from a demand stance. Ignore it. Soybean sales came in at 420T.M.T sold for old crop delivery before the new marketing year for beans and corn September 1st. Key buyer China was absent but increases to Asian Chinese neighbors rose as China is not exporting to neighbors and keeping it home leaving Asian neighbors turning to U.S. ports. ... read more The Grain Report - Up Next U.S.D.A
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 08 June 2010
We began a host of reports this week with Monday’s weekly export inspection report. Wheat showed 14.3 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near term export versus 12.1 the week prior, 18 a year ago, and four week average of 16 m.b. Demand remains weak as harvest looms ahead the rest of this month and importers await a pre harvest low to move in. There not convinced yet.
Corn inspections were 31.7 m.b. down from two year high last week of 48.9 but over a year ago of 26.5 m.b. Inspections are up 86 m.b. on the year. ... read more Up Next U.S.D.A
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 08 June 2010
We began a host of reports this week with Monday’s weekly export inspection report. Wheat showed 14.3 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near term export versus 12.1 the week prior, 18 a year ago, and four week average of 16 m.b. Demand remains weak as harvest looms ahead the rest of this month and importers await a pre harvest low to move in. There not convinced yet.
Corn inspections were 31.7 m.b. down from two year high last week of 48.9 but over a year ago of 26.5 m.b. Inspections are up 86 m.b. on the year. ... read more The Grain Report - Rainy To Dry ?
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 04 June 2010
Well, this week came in as we scripted on last Friday’s crop report. We said weather would be wet this week and our return to trading after the holiday, Tuesday, would be met by selling pressure as traders price in the rain makes grain psychology. I also suggested that early week lows could give way to short-covering and/or buying late-week if weather gurus were right on their thoughts the second week of June could turn hot and dry. Well, Thursday saw corn and wheat pull off lows lightly and beans sharply as 4 of the 5 weather models of predicting long-term weather next week as hot and dry after Wednesday. ... read more The Grain Report - RAINY TO DRY ?
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 04 June 2010
Well, this week came in as we scripted on last Friday’s crop report. We said weather would be wet this week and our return to trading after the holiday, Tuesday, would be met by selling pressure as traders price in the rain makes grain psychology. I also suggested that early week lows could give way to short-covering and/or buying late-week if weather gurus were right on their thoughts the second week of June could turn hot and dry. Well, Thursday saw corn and wheat pull off lows lightly and beans sharply as 4 of the 5 weather models of predicting long-term weather next week as hot and dry after Wednesday. ... read more The Grain Report - Rain Doubt
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 June 2010
We started the week Tuesday with our weekly export insprection report showing 12 million bushels (“m.t.”) of wheat was inspected for near-term export down from 20 the week prior and the weak four-week average of 17.2 m.b. Clearly, importers await the new harvest of our winter wheat crop this month. Additionally, trend-following funds increased their short position for the second consecutive week to short 63,000 contracts, versus the two prior weeks of 57,000 and 49,000 a bearish scenario all around. ... read more Rain Doubt
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 June 2010
We started the week Tuesday with our weekly export insprection report showing 12 million bushels (“m.t.”) of wheat was inspected for near-term export down from 20 the week prior and the weak four-week average of 17.2 m.b. Clearly, importers await the new harvest of our winter wheat crop this month. Additionally, trend-following funds increased their short position for the second consecutive week to short 63,000 contracts, versus the two prior weeks of 57,000 and 49,000 a bearish scenario all around. ... read more The Grain Report - Holiday’s Here
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 28 May 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report came out at 7:30 am Central time showing us how much of each grain last week was sold for future shipment end becomes a strong gauge of near-trend, long-term demand. Wheat was weak as expected at 148 t.m.t. down, 41% from the week prior, as importers seasonally back off and await fresh new crop to come from our winter wheat crop harvest beginning in June. Soy bean demand softened a little on the week coming in at 175 t.m.t. with China in for 60 t.m.t. of the total, ... read more The Grain Report - Holiday's Here
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 28 May 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report came out at 7:30 am Central time showing us how much of each grain last week was sold for future shipment end becomes a strong gauge of near-trend, long-term demand. Wheat was weak as expected at 148 t.m.t. down, 41% from the week prior, as importers seasonally back off and await fresh new crop to come from our winter wheat crop harvest beginning in June. Soy bean demand softened a little on the week coming in at 175 t.m.t. with China in for 60 t.m.t. of the total, ... read more The Grain Report - Changing Seasons
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 May 2010
Monday’s first report came out at 10:00am Central Time with our weekly export inspection report putting wheat at 20.3 million bushels (“m.b.”) inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export up from 13 m.b. the week prior; and four-week average of 15 m.b. We need 40 m.b. weekly to attract traders attention as we sit on a record 950 m.b. ending-stocks.
Bean inspections were 3.9 m.b. versus 8.9 m.b. the week prior; and four-week average of 7.2 m.b. ... read more The Grain Report - Changing Seasons
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 May 2010
Monday’s first report came out at 10:00am Central Time with our weekly export inspection report putting wheat at 20.3 million bushels (“m.b.”) inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export up from 13 m.b. the week prior; and four-week average of 15 m.b. We need 40 m.b. weekly to attract traders attention as we sit on a record 950 m.b. ending-stocks.
Bean inspections were 3.9 m.b. versus 8.9 m.b. the week prior; and four-week average of 7.2 m.b. ... read more The Grain Report - Outside Influence
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 21 May 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed wheat sales last week at 250 t.m.t., up 3% from the week prior, but hardly the 700 t.m.t. or more needed weekly to attract buying from demand to futures. Wheat’s only hope to make new highs on the month over last Friday’s nine-week high of 5.18 basis, July futures is further short position liquidation by trend-following funds. Here is each week how they have gone from a record short position to current number. 7 weeks ago, the week of April 5, they came in short futures of 75,000 contracts with July futures trading at 4.60. ... read more Outside Influence
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 21 May 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed wheat sales last week at 250 t.m.t., up 3% from the week prior, but hardly the 700 t.m.t. or more needed weekly to attract buying from demand to futures. Wheat’s only hope to make new highs on the month over last Friday’s nine-week high of 5.18 basis, July futures is further short position liquidation by trend-following funds. Here is each week how they have gone from a record short position to current number. 7 weeks ago, the week of April 5, they came in short futures of 75,000 contracts with July futures trading at 4.60. ... read more The Grain Report - Warmer, Drier Ahead
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 19 May 2010
First report for the week came out at 10:00am Central Time with our weekly export inspection report on demand. Wheat saw 12.5 million bushes (“m.b.”) inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment to foreign ports. This was under 23.2 m.b. the week prior; 15 m.b. a year ago; and four-week average of 16 m.b.
Well, this should have been expected wheat was at 8 week highs when we entered last Monday and with the profit-taking drop into late week, importers are waiting even a better price. ... read more The Grain Report - Warmer, Drier Ahead
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 19 May 2010
First report for the week came out at 10:00am Central Time with our weekly export inspection report on demand. Wheat saw 12.5 million bushes (“m.b.”) inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment to foreign ports. This was under 23.2 m.b. the week prior; 15 m.b. a year ago; and four-week average of 16 m.b.
Well, this should have been expected wheat was at 8 week highs when we entered last Monday and with the profit-taking drop into late week, importers are waiting even a better price. ... read more The Grain Report - Demand Now And Later
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 14 May 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report came out putting wheat sales last week at 244 t.m.t., up 63% from the week prior, but still not high enough to attract buyers to futures as traders’ minds are well aware of Tuesday’s U.S.D.A. crop report reminding them of record-ending stocks at 950 m.b.
Bean exports were surprisingly good for old crop delivery prior September 1, the start of the new grain marketing year. ... read more Demand Now And Later
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 14 May 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report came out putting wheat sales last week at 244 t.m.t., up 63% from the week prior, but still not high enough to attract buyers to futures as traders’ minds are well aware of Tuesday’s U.S.D.A. crop report reminding them of record-ending stocks at 950 m.b.
Bean exports were surprisingly good for old crop delivery prior September 1, the start of the new grain marketing year. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. Numbers
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 11 May 2010
Lots of reports to address, so let’s get started. The weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00am Central Time, Monday, May 10, 2010, as it does each week telling us how much of each grain a U.S. exporter asked the U.S.D.A. to inspect before being shipped. This is a good near-term demand signal as its grain usually shipped within 30 days. Wheat inspections were 20.7 million bushels (“m.b.”) versus 17.8 m.b. the week prior; 11.7 m.b. a year ago; and four-week average of 15 m.b. ... read more U.S.D.A. Numbers
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 11 May 2010
Lots of reports to address, so let’s get started. The weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00am Central Time, Monday, May 10, 2010, as it does each week telling us how much of each grain a U.S. exporter asked the U.S.D.A. to inspect before being shipped. This is a good near-term demand signal as its grain usually shipped within 30 days. Wheat inspections were 20.7 million bushels (“m.b.”) versus 17.8 m.b. the week prior; 11.7 m.b. a year ago; and four-week average of 15 m.b. ... read more U.S.D.A. Report Next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 07 May 2010
The Grain Report for Friday, May 7, 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed wheat sold last week was 150 t.m.t. down 13% from the week prior; and 21% under our four-week average. 95 t.m.t. went to Asian markets as the U.S. is their closest port of origin and they cannot buy low quality wheat from China as China is keeping grain home now. The sales are too small to move prices up. We need 650 t.m.t. or more weekly to draw buying to futures from demand. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. Report Next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 07 May 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed wheat sold last week was 150 t.m.t. down 13% from the week prior; and 21% under our four-week average. 95 t.m.t. went to Asian markets as the U.S. is their closest port of origin and they cannot buy low quality wheat from China as China is keeping grain home now. The sales are too small to move prices up. We need 650 t.m.t. or more weekly to draw buying to futures from demand. In the mean time, look for trend-following funds to continue their trek of reducing their once record short position pulling wheat prices up again in the month of May. ... read more The Grain Report - Still Fast Planting
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 04 May 2010
Our first report of the week came with our weekly export inspection report at 10am Central Time. It put wheat inspections at 17.5 million bushels , up 7 m.b. from the week prior and a year ago. Still not good enough demand to drive prices as we sit with a record 950 m.b. ending-stocks inventory to chew through. We need inspections of 35 m.b. or more weekly to attract buying interest to futures from a demand basis. In the mean time, a rally is all based on trend-following funds’ willingness to continue covering or buying back of their once record short held position. ... read more STILL FAST PLANTING
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 04 May 2010
Our first report of the week came with our weekly export inspection report at 10am Central Time. It put wheat inspections at 17.5 million bushels , up 7 m.b. from the week prior and a year ago. Still not good enough demand to drive prices as we sit with a record 950 m.b. ending-stocks inventory to chew through. We need inspections of 35 m.b. or more weekly to attract buying interest to futures from a demand basis. In the mean time, a rally is all based on trend-following funds’ willingness to continue covering or buying back of their once record short held position. ... read more The Grain Report - Grain Thoughts
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 30 April 2010
It was a typical week where the market traded a little bit of everything as the growing season comes next and gets all the attention. Monday saw the grains either match or make new price highs for the month as they priced in the heavy rains over the weekend to slow planting progress this week with support behind the strength from surging demand indicators for corn and beans. Of course with new monthly high prices comes profit-taking as the month-end enters and funds pluck profits and pay bonuses on profits taken before April 30. ... read more The Grain Report - Grain Thoughts
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 30 April 2010
It was a typical week where the market traded a little bit of everything as the growing season comes next and gets all the attention. Monday saw the grains either match or make new price highs for the month as they priced in the heavy rains over the weekend to slow planting progress this week with support behind the strength from surging demand indicators for corn and beans. Of course with new monthly high prices comes profit-taking as the month-end enters and funds pluck profits and pay bonuses on profits taken before April 30. ... read more The Grain Report - Where Da Beans
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 April 2010
Our weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00am Central Time showing 9.8 m.b of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment, down 8 m.b. from the week prior; 4 m.b. under a year ago; and 9 m.b. under a weak four-week average. After hitting six week high prices last week our weak demand pace got even weaker. Doesn’t matter, as demand can’t drive prices up until our massive ending-stocks inventory of 950 m.b. gets under 450 m.b. ... read more Where Da Beans
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 April 2010
Our weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00am Central Time showing 9.8 m.b of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment, down 8 m.b. from the week prior; 4 m.b. under a year ago; and 9 m.b. under a weak four-week average. After hitting six week high prices last week our weak demand pace got even weaker. Doesn’t matter, as demand can’t drive prices up until our massive ending-stocks inventory of 950 m.b. gets under 450 m.b. ... read more The Grain Report - WET DEMAND
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 April 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report left wheat holding an empty bag again with a dismal 166 T.M.T. of wheat sold last week, down 46% from a weak four-week average. No surprise here as world record inventories have importers buying hand-to-mouth as needed and a little on every port of origin with no one getting a lion’s share. Keep in mind, wheat’s new export year begins June 1 and harvest of our winter crop begins late May so demand will pick up then, but huge record-ending stocks mute any bullish effect from demand. ... read more The Grain Report - Wet Demand
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 April 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report left wheat holding an empty bag again with a dismal 166 T.M.T. of wheat sold last week, down 46% from a weak four-week average. No surprise here as world record inventories have importers buying hand-to-mouth as needed and a little on every port of origin with no one getting a lion’s share. Keep in mind, wheat’s new export year begins June 1 and harvest of our winter crop begins late May so demand will pick up then, but huge record-ending stocks mute any bullish effect from demand. ... read more The Grain Report - Planting Pace Neutral
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 21 April 2010
The week’s hefty list of reports began with our 10:00 am Central Time weekly export inspection report which shows how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment.
Wheat inspections were 17.6 million bushels, versus 18.2 the week prior; 15 a year ago; and four-week average of 17.7. The number is a negative demand pace as we sit on record-ending stocks.
Corn inspections were 37.6 m.b. up 1 m.b. from the week prior; and equal our four-week average of 37.2. This is a strong demand number. ... read more The Grain Report - Planting Pace Neutral
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 21 April 2010
The week’s hefty list of reports began with our 10:00 am Central Time weekly export inspection report which shows how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment.
Wheat inspections were 17.6 million bushels, versus 18.2 the week prior; 15 a year ago; and four-week average of 17.7. The number is a negative demand pace as we sit on record-ending stocks.
Corn inspections were 37.6 m.b. up 1 m.b. from the week prior; and equal our four-week average of 37.2. This is a strong demand number. ... read more The Grain Report - SEASONAL SWOON
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 April 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report confirmed little to no wheat interest. It showed 101 T.M.T. of wheat was inspected for near-term export down 69% from the week prior and 72% under a weak four-week average. What is happening now is, with record old crop inventory sitting around worldwide, why buy the old shelf life. The new crop winter wheat comes to harvest late May so importers look to be patient and buy fresh product at value. Sales for new crop marketing year on wheat beginning June 1, was 310 T.M.T, but even combining the two, old and new crop season, the demand numbers remain weak. ... read more The Grain Report - SEASONAL SWOON
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 April 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report confirmed little to no wheat interest. It showed 101 T.M.T. of wheat was inspected for near-term export down 69% from the week prior and 72% under a weak four-week average. What is happening now is, with record old crop inventory sitting around worldwide, why buy the old shelf life. The new crop winter wheat comes to harvest late May so importers look to be patient and buy fresh product at value. Sales for new crop marketing year on wheat beginning June 1, was 310 T.M.T, but even combining the two, old and new crop season, the demand numbers remain weak. ... read more The Grain Report - PLANTING STARTS
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 14 April 2010
Our first report of the week was on the demand side with our Monday, 10:00 am Central Time weekly export inspection report. Just a note, we always see a slower demand pace the week of a U.S.D.A. crop report as importers await the numbers to see if they need to adjust their marketing strategies.
Bean inspections were 13.3 million bushels, versus 17 m.b., the week prior; 24 m.b. a year ago; and four-week average of 27 m.b. Inspections year-to-date are 296 m.b. over a year ago. Look for sales to improve from today on out as report influences are behind us until the May report. ... read more The Grain Report - PLANTING STARTS
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 14 April 2010
Our first report of the week was on the demand side with our Monday, 10:00 am Central Time weekly export inspection report. Just a note, we always see a slower demand pace the week of a U.S.D.A. crop report as importers await the numbers to see if they need to adjust their marketing strategies.
Bean inspections were 13.3 million bushels, versus 17 m.b., the week prior; 24 m.b. a year ago; and four-week average of 27 m.b. Inspections year-to-date are 296 m.b. over a year ago. Look for sales to improve from today on out as report influences are behind us until the May report. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. Reports Again
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 April 2010
Reports and more reports to digest. Thursday brought us our weekly export sales report. Wheat sales were a weak 323 T.M.T. down 25% from the week prior, keeping wheat demand a non-pricing force until harvest of the winter crop begins late May. Soybean sales were 205 T.M.T. for old crop shipment before September 1, and 238 T.M.T for new crop year season after September 1 for shipment. China was in for 188 T.M.T. of the new crop purchases as their immediate shipments are out of South America. ... read more U.S.D.A. Reports Again
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 April 2010
Reports and more reports to digest. Thursday brought us our weekly export sales report. Wheat sales were a weak 323 T.M.T. down 25% from the week prior, keeping wheat demand a non-pricing force until harvest of the winter crop begins late May. Soybean sales were 205 T.M.T. for old crop shipment before September 1, and 238 T.M.T for new crop year season after September 1 for shipment. China was in for 188 T.M.T. of the new crop purchases as their immediate shipments are out of South America. ... read more The Grain Report - Another Report Coming
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 07 April 2010
Our first demand-side report of the week came with our weekly export inspection report which tells us how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export. All grain leaving a port must be inspected first to insure it meets the U.S. standard of highest quality. Corn inspections were 39.3 million bushels, unchanged from the week prior and over our strengthening four-week average of 37.2 m.b. Year-to-date inspections are 1.008 b.b., versus 970 m.b. a year ago. I expect corn exports to far exceed last year. ... read more Another Report Coming
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 07 April 2010
Our first demand-side report of the week came with our weekly export inspection report which tells us how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export. All grain leaving a port must be inspected first to insure it meets the U.S. standard of highest quality. Corn inspections were 39.3 million bushels, unchanged from the week prior and over our strengthening four-week average of 37.2 m.b. Year-to-date inspections are 1.008 b.b., versus 970 m.b. a year ago. I expect corn exports to far exceed last year. ... read more The Grain Report - More Acres Please
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 01 April 2010
The U.S.D.A. took a poll of farmers to see how much of each grain they intend to plant this spring. The report Wednesday may have a hidden surprise in it for soybeans. It suggested farmers would plant 78.098 million acres versus 77.500 million acres a year ago. That’s only about 600,000 acres more on the year. I see this as potentially very bullish the next 120 days as field work, planting and the growing season begins.
Demand ultimately is the driving force of this market. Last year we planted 77.5 M.A. ... read more More Acres Please
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 01 April 2010
The U.S.D.A. took a poll of farmers to see how much of each grain they intend to plant this spring. The report Wednesday may have a hidden surprise in it for soybeans. It suggested farmers would plant 78.098 million acres versus 77.500 million acres a year ago. That’s only about 600,000 acres more on the year. I see this as potentially very bullish the next 120 days as field work, planting and the growing season begins.
Demand ultimately is the driving force of this market. Last year we planted 77.5 M.A. ... read more The Grain Report - Next Stop: Acreage
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 30 March 2010
Special Notes: The U.S.D.A. Planting Intension Report is released, Wednesday, at 7:30 am, Central Time. Markets are closed Monday for grains in observance of Good Friday. Our weekly export inspection report came out Monday as it always does. It put 14.7 million bushels of wheat inspected for near-term export versus 20 m.b. the week prior; 15 a year ago; and four-week average of 16.2. It is a weak demand signal, ignore it for our daily pricing this week. With 1 b.b. in storage and record foreign inventory, demand will not increase until our winter wheat crop comes to harvest in late May, then sales pick up from a seasonal perspective. ... read more Next Stop: Acreage
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 30 March 2010
Special Notes: The U.S.D.A. Planting Intension Report is released, Wednesday, at 7:30 am, Central Time. Markets are closed Monday for grains in observance of Good Friday. Our weekly export inspection report came out Monday as it always does. It put 14.7 million bushels of wheat inspected for near-term export versus 20 m.b. the week prior; 15 a year ago; and four-week average of 16.2. It is a weak demand signal, ignore it for our daily pricing this week. With 1 b.b. in storage and record foreign inventory, demand will not increase until our winter wheat crop comes to harvest in late May, then sales pick up from a seasonal perspective. ... read more The Grain Report - Pre-Report Estimates
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 March 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 371,000 metric tons of wheat was sold last week up 14% from the week prior and 23% over our four-week average. The better sales came as Asian customers entered for feed-quality wheat. Demand remains a non-pricing force as record U.S. wheat stocks and world record stocks keep demand spread out among all the world exporters with no one garnering a lion’s share. ... read more The Grain Report - Pre-Report Estimates
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 March 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 371,000 metric tons of wheat was sold last week up 14% from the week prior and 23% over our four-week average. The better sales came as Asian customers entered for feed-quality wheat. Demand remains a non-pricing force as record U.S. wheat stocks and world record stocks keep demand spread out among all the world exporters with no one garnering a lion’s share. ... read more The Grain Report - Just a Note and Some Tidbits
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 March 2010
Just a note, last Friday on our PFG Website, the Friday Grain Report had only half the report posted. On Monday, we added the rest of corn and all of the bean research. If you have not yet revisited the report, do so now. When on the grain research page , you can scale down and read Friday’s after this report’s review.
Monday’s weekly export inspection report came out telling how much of each grain was inspected for near-term export and becomes a near-term gauge of demand. ... read more Just a Note and Some Tidbits
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 March 2010
Just a note, last Friday on our PFG Website, the Friday Grain Report had only half the report posted. On Monday, we added the rest of corn and all of the bean research. If you have not yet revisited the report, do so now. When on the grain research page , you can scale down and read Friday’s after this report’s review.
Monday’s weekly export inspection report came out telling how much of each grain was inspected for near-term export and becomes a near-term gauge of demand. ... read more The Grain Report - Last Full Week
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 19 March 2010
Our last demand-side report came out with Thursday’s weekly export sales report. For wheat – Boreing. Export sales were 325,000 metric tons, down 20% from the week prior and equal our weak four-week average. Even a $0.20 drop in prices last week and a $0.45 two-week drop in prices could not bring demand to U.S. ports. But bears in the market are nervous as we head into month-end and April. A near-record short position held by trend following funds may have wheat poised for another short-covering rally similar to last October 6, when trend-following funds entered the week short a record 60,000 contracts accumulated on a nine week $1.50 drop in prices. ... read more The Grain Report - Last Full Week
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 19 March 2010
Our last demand-side report came out with Thursday’s weekly export sales report. For wheat – Boreing. Export sales were 325,000 metric tons, down 20% from the week prior and equal our weak four-week average. Even a $0.20 drop in prices last week and a $0.45 two-week drop in prices could not bring demand to U.S. ports. But bears in the market are nervous as we head into month-end and April. A near-record short position held by trend following funds may have wheat poised for another short-covering rally similar to last October 6, when trend-following funds entered the week short a record 60,000 contracts accumulated on a nine week $1.50 drop in prices. ... read more The Grain Report - Middle of Month
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 March 2010
We started week’s reports on the demand side with our weekly export inspection reports.
Wheat inspections were 9.1 million bushels down from the week prior; 21 m.b. our four-week average of 17.8; and a year ago 12.8; you would have thought after last week’s $0.15 decline and $0.20 drop in prices the week before, that we would have drawn in some demand but apparently not. This had wheat drop from down $0.01 on the day, Monday, ahead of the 10:00 am report to down $0.09 three minutes after the report’s release. ... read more The Grain Report - Middle of Month
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 March 2010
We started week’s reports on the demand side with our weekly export inspection reports.
Wheat inspections were 9.1 million bushels down from the week prior; 21 m.b. our four-week average of 17.8; and a year ago 12.8; you would have thought after last week’s $0.15 decline and $0.20 drop in prices the week before, that we would have drawn in some demand but apparently not. This had wheat drop from down $0.01 on the day, Monday, ahead of the 10:00 am report to down $0.09 three minutes after the report’s release. ... read more The Grain Report - Mid-Month
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 12 March 2010
Wednesday’s U.S.D.A. monthly crop report was viewed by most as a “yawner” and would be forgotten 10 minutes after the open. Reason, the changes from the month prior were so small you wonder why the government bothers. That is when trader analysts like me come in and put the report under a microscope and look for the hidden message.
With wheat, there was no message other than ending-stocks got fatter. They raised wheat’s ending-stocks come the start of wheat’s new marketing year June 1, to 1.001 billion bushels versus 981 m.b. last month and 657 m.b. a year ago. ... read more The Grain Report - Mid-Month
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 12 March 2010
Wednesday’s U.S.D.A. monthly crop report was viewed by most as a “yawner” and would be forgotten 10 minutes after the open. Reason, the changes from the month prior were so small you wonder why the government bothers. That is when trader analysts like me come in and put the report under a microscope and look for the hidden message.
With wheat, there was no message other than ending-stocks got fatter. They raised wheat’s ending-stocks come the start of wheat’s new marketing year June 1, to 1.001 billion bushels versus 981 m.b. last month and 657 m.b. a year ago. ... read more The Grain Report - Production Next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 March 2010
Our weekly export inspection report came out Monday, almost ignored as the market gets ready for the Wednesday 7:30 am Central Time U.S.D.A. crop report.
Let’s review them anyway, so we are on top of demand fundamentals. Lowly wheat inspections were 20.4 million bushels inspected for near-term export versus 19 the week prior; 14 a year ago; and four-week average of 17.2 m.b. Too much wheat in inventory at 981 m.b. to move off weak demand numbers like that. Demand remains a neutral force for pricing. ... read more Production Next
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 March 2010
Our weekly export inspection report came out Monday, almost ignored as the market gets ready for the Wednesday 7:30 am Central Time U.S.D.A. crop report.
Let’s review them anyway, so we are on top of demand fundamentals. Lowly wheat inspections were 20.4 million bushels inspected for near-term export versus 19 the week prior; 14 a year ago; and four-week average of 17.2 m.b. Too much wheat in inventory at 981 m.b. to move off weak demand numbers like that. Demand remains a neutral force for pricing. ... read more The Grain Report - REPORT NO. 1 - WEDNESDAY
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 05 March 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed wheat sales were 101 T.M.T.down 73%from the week prior, 77% under our four-week average of 437 and a year ago of 285 T.M.T. Recent Asian business disappeared. We had been seeing several hundred thousand metric tons weekly the last month. Not an issue as demand doesn’t turn to U.S. ports until late April and May, as new crop business enters with our late May through June harvest of our winter wheat crop. ... read more The Grain Report - REPORT NO. 1 - WEDNESDAY
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 05 March 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed wheat sales were 101 T.M.T.down 73%from the week prior, 77% under our four-week average of 437 and a year ago of 285 T.M.T. Recent Asian business disappeared. We had been seeing several hundred thousand metric tons weekly the last month. Not an issue as demand doesn’t turn to U.S. ports until late April and May, as new crop business enters with our late May through June harvest of our winter wheat crop. ... read more The Grain Report - SLEEPY TUESDAY
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 March 2010
We started the week on the demand-side news with our weekly export inspection report at 10am Central Time each Monday, telling us how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment and is a gauge of near-term demand. Wheat inspections were 17.6 million bushels, down from 19 the week prior; but over a year ago of 10; and four-week average of 16 m.b. Nothing to suggest a surge in demand is here, so the market sees it as a neutral demand indicator. Demand picks up in mid-to-late April and May. ... read more SLEEPY TUESDAY
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 March 2010
We started the week on the demand-side news with our weekly export inspection report at 10am Central Time each Monday, telling us how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment and is a gauge of near-term demand. Wheat inspections were 17.6 million bushels, down from 19 the week prior; but over a year ago of 10; and four-week average of 16 m.b. Nothing to suggest a surge in demand is here, so the market sees it as a neutral demand indicator. Demand picks up in mid-to-late April and May. ... read more The Grain Report - I See March
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 February 2010
Export sales report came in like a whisper as ports for shipping here were quiet as last week was the Chinese week-long New Year’s holiday bringing their business on the world market to a very slow to almost zero pace. Wheat sales that have enjoyed good Asian business lately, saw only Japan in for 44 T.M.T. The total sales on the report were 375,000 metic tons down 8% from the year prior and 26% under our four-week average of 508 T.M.T. Last year this time, sales were 465 and in 2008, 308 T.M.T. Boring, to say the least. The bottom line is that record U.S. and world-ending stocks leave so much wheat in users hands and falling off shipping export ports that demand is so spread out, no one is a major exporter. ... read more The Grain Report - I See March
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 February 2010
Export sales report came in like a whisper as ports for shipping here were quiet as last week was the Chinese week-long New Year’s holiday bringing their business on the world market to a very slow to almost zero pace. Wheat sales that have enjoyed good Asian business lately, saw only Japan in for 44 T.M.T. The total sales on the report were 375,000 metic tons down 8% from the year prior and 26% under our four-week average of 508 T.M.T. Last year this time, sales were 465 and in 2008, 308 T.M.T. Boring, to say the least. The bottom line is that record U.S. and world-ending stocks leave so much wheat in users hands and falling off shipping export ports that demand is so spread out, no one is a major exporter. ... read more The Grain Report - MONTH WINDS DOWN
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 February 2010
Full week of trading ahead to end the month. We started Monday with our weekly export inspection report showing 17.7 million bushels of beans were inspected for near-term export versus 1.1 the week prior; 10.3 a year ago; and four-week average of 17 m.b. It is neutral at best to demand, as we sit on a record 981 m.b. of ending stocks inventory. Seasonals see wheat as turning up now as we head into March and the early Spring emergence uncertainties of our winter crop. ... read more MONTH WINDS DOWN
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 February 2010
Full week of trading ahead to end the month. We started Monday with our weekly export inspection report showing 17.7 million bushels of beans were inspected for near-term export versus 1.1 the week prior; 10.3 a year ago; and four-week average of 17 m.b. It is neutral at best to demand, as we sit on a record 981 m.b. of ending stocks inventory. Seasonals see wheat as turning up now as we head into March and the early Spring emergence uncertainties of our winter crop. ... read more the grain report - A Lifting Corn Demand
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 19 February 2010
We finished the week with our weekly export sales report coming out ahead of the opening one day delayed due to Monday’s holiday.
Wheat sales were 408 T.M.T.; down 25% from the week prior; and 33% under our four-week average of 612 T.M.T. 110 of the total went to Asia, most likely low quality feed wheat. It is a neutral to negative demand indicator.
Corn sales were 974 T.M.T.; up 31% from the week prior; down 7% from the week four-week average of 1.044 M.M.T. ... read more the grain report - A Lifting Corn Demand
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 19 February 2010
We finished the week with our weekly export sales report coming out ahead of the opening one day delayed due to Monday’s holiday.
Wheat sales were 408 T.M.T.; down 25% from the week prior; and 33% under our four-week average of 612 T.M.T. 110 of the total went to Asia, most likely low quality feed wheat. It is a neutral to negative demand indicator.
Corn sales were 974 T.M.T.; up 31% from the week prior; down 7% from the week four-week average of 1.044 M.M.T. ... read more the grain report - Strong Start
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 February 2010
Short week with all our demand reports moving ahead one day. Our weekly export inspection report came out Tuesday, one day delayed due to holiday. For wheat it showed 15.8 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near-term export; off 2 m.b. from the week prior; 5 m.b. over a year ago; and equal our weak four-week average. I say weak because we are sitting on a record 981 m.b. ending-stocks. To be a bullish number enough to chew through ending-stocks quickly, we would need 30 m.b. or more weekly sold. So, from a shipment-to-inventory correlation, it is a neutral-at-best number and ignored by traders. ... read more the grain report - Strong Start
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 16 February 2010
Short week with all our demand reports moving ahead one day. Our weekly export inspection report came out Tuesday, one day delayed due to holiday. For wheat it showed 15.8 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near-term export; off 2 m.b. from the week prior; 5 m.b. over a year ago; and equal our weak four-week average. I say weak because we are sitting on a record 981 m.b. ending-stocks. To be a bullish number enough to chew through ending-stocks quickly, we would need 30 m.b. or more weekly sold. So, from a shipment-to-inventory correlation, it is a neutral-at-best number and ignored by traders. ... read more The Grain Report - PRESIDENT’S DAY
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 12 February 2010
First things first: All markets are closed Monday, February 15, 2010, for our President’s Day holiday.
Our weekly export sales report came out one day delayed today due to the record snows that fell over the east coast closing most government offices.
Wheat exports came in at 548 T.M.T.; up 31% from the week prior; and 5% over our weak four-week average. Asia was in for half the total as they buy the lower quality wheat for the feed ration of animals. ... read more The Grain Report - PRESIDENT’S DAY
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 12 February 2010
First things first: All markets are closed Monday, February 15, 2010, for our President’s Day holiday.
Our weekly export sales report came out one day delayed today due to the record snows that fell over the east coast closing most government offices.
Wheat exports came in at 548 T.M.T.; up 31% from the week prior; and 5% over our weak four-week average. Asia was in for half the total as they buy the lower quality wheat for the feed ration of animals. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. WHISPERS
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 February 2010
Our first report for direction on the demand front came with our weekly export inspection report showing 16.9 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment. This was off from 17.9 the week prior; 19.2 a year ago, but over our weak four-week average of 13.7. Neutral at best describes the number. Traders won’t sell short off it, but the record-ending stocks inventory of wheat doesn’t allow this to be a big enough number on demand to buy long either. ... read more The Grain Report - U.S.D.A. WHISPERS
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 February 2010
Our first report for direction on the demand front came with our weekly export inspection report showing 16.9 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment. This was off from 17.9 the week prior; 19.2 a year ago, but over our weak four-week average of 13.7. Neutral at best describes the number. Traders won’t sell short off it, but the record-ending stocks inventory of wheat doesn’t allow this to be a big enough number on demand to buy long either. ... read more the grain report - CHINA’S CORN PLAN
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 05 February 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report attracted little attention as trade continues to trade off outside markets and seasonal down-trend influences.
Wheat exports were 418 T.M.T. off 37% from the week prior, 5% under our four-week average, but over last year’s 326 and 2008 sales of 312 T.M.T. So, we continue to see improved exports but they come on the back of a one dollar break in prices and we’re selling a lot of feed quality wheat to Asia. ... read more CHINA’S CORN PLAN
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 05 February 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report attracted little attention as trade continues to trade off outside markets and seasonal down-trend influences.
Wheat exports were 418 T.M.T. off 37% from the week prior, 5% under our four-week average, but over last year’s 326 and 2008 sales of 312 T.M.T. So, we continue to see improved exports but they come on the back of a one dollar break in prices and we’re selling a lot of feed quality wheat to Asia. ... read more the grain report - Short Covering
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 February 2010
We started the week off with our Monday weekly export inspection report showing for wheat that 17.8 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. to be shipped near-term. This was up 1 m.b. from the week prior; up 5.8 m.b. from a year ago; and 6 m.b. over what was a weak four-week average. Better again for the second consecutive week, but not great. We are seeing a small level of improved exports on the back end of a three-week, one-dollar drop in prices. The big world players remain absent from our ports while Asian countries buy cheap low quality feed wheat. Demand is not yet a driving force to pricing. ... read more Short Covering
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 February 2010
We started the week off with our Monday weekly export inspection report showing for wheat that 17.8 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the U.S.D.A. to be shipped near-term. This was up 1 m.b. from the week prior; up 5.8 m.b. from a year ago; and 6 m.b. over what was a weak four-week average. Better again for the second consecutive week, but not great. We are seeing a small level of improved exports on the back end of a three-week, one-dollar drop in prices. The big world players remain absent from our ports while Asian countries buy cheap low quality feed wheat. Demand is not yet a driving force to pricing. ... read more the grain report - February Lows to March Riches
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 29 January 2010
How’s demand, well our weekly export sales report came out Thursday telling us how much of each of the grains were sold the week prior for future shipment.
Wheat exports were 660 thousand metric tons down 20% from a big number the week prior, but 80% over our weak four-week average. We also came in over 2008 of 422 and last year this time of 23 T.M.T. Don’t get excited as the two-week improved exports came at the expense of a recent $0.90 decline in prices. ... read more February Lows to March Riches
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 29 January 2010
How’s demand, well our weekly export sales report came out Thursday telling us how much of each of the grains were sold the week prior for future shipment.
Wheat exports were 660 thousand metric tons down 20% from a big number the week prior, but 80% over our weak four-week average. We also came in over 2008 of 422 and last year this time of 23 T.M.T. Don’t get excited as the two-week improved exports came at the expense of a recent $0.90 decline in prices. ... read more  The Exit Strategy Mirage
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 January 2010
We got to get out of this place, if it’s the last thing we ever do. It looked like we were getting so close to the exit just when you think you should be getting there suddenly it is further away. Or it disappears completely leading one to wonder whether it was ever there at all. It is the Fed day mirage with no exit strategy in sight that will leave energy traders on pins and needles. Oh sure we will get the latest data from the Department of Energy on supply and demand, but let’s face it, it may be all secondary if we get any surprises from the Fed. ... read more the grain report - Seasonal Trends
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 January 2010
Our first demand report of the week came out Monday with our weekly export inspection showing how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment. Wheat inspections were 16.8 million bushels; up from 9.6 m.b. the week prior; equal a year ago and over our weak four-week average of 10 m.b. The recent break in prices have brought in slightly improved exports, but not enough to drive wheat prices on its own, leaving wheat in a follower’s call to corn and beans. ... read more Seasonal Trends
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 January 2010
Our first demand report of the week came out Monday with our weekly export inspection showing how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term shipment. Wheat inspections were 16.8 million bushels; up from 9.6 m.b. the week prior; equal a year ago and over our weak four-week average of 10 m.b. The recent break in prices have brought in slightly improved exports, but not enough to drive wheat prices on its own, leaving wheat in a follower’s call to corn and beans. ... read more China banks and a Bernanke bounce
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 January 2010
The oil bull got a new lease on life helped in part by a refinery fire and an oil spill but mainly because of that old Bernanke bounce. It appeared that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's appointment is now more likely and the oil market seems to love what that says about the status quo of cheap money. Of course the growing concerns over the Chinese banking sector and the continuing tightening of Chinese credit may quickly dampen some of that bullish enthusiasm. ... read more China Banks and Bubbles
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 25 January 2010
If the Chinese banks have problems and dramatically slow lending, can the oil bull market continue? How about the carry trade? Concerns are mounting around the banks, raising the question as to whether the China commodity consuming gravy train will continue at the previous rapid pace. Overnight these concerns are coming to the forefront as Chinas fourth largest is looking to raise 40 billion yuan or the equivalent of $5.86 billion dollars to shore up its capital base and maintain its lending capacity. ... read more the grain report - The Seasonal Grain Blues
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 22 January 2010
January and February are seasonally a time of year when corn, beans and wheat pull lower. It is the dead of winter with grains locked up on the farm until the spring thaw, while the winter wheat crop lies dormant until March when spring temperatures begin to rise. After the three-week rally into the U.S.D.A. January 12 crop production report that brought corn and beans to near-summer high prices. We have seen large trend-following funds selling previous long positions. ... read more The Seasonal Grain Blues
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 22 January 2010
January and February are seasonally a time of year when corn, beans and wheat pull lower. It is the dead of winter with grains locked up on the farm until the spring thaw, while the winter wheat crop lies dormant until March when spring temperatures begin to rise. After the three-week rally into the U.S.D.A. January 12 crop production report that brought corn and beans to near-summer high prices. We have seen large trend-following funds selling previous long positions. ... read more the grain report - Dead of Winter Seasonals
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 21 January 2010
Short week as we start things on Tuesday with what normally is our Monday weekly export inspection report – a gauge of near-term demand.
Wheat inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export was 9.3 million bushels, down from 12.3 m.b. the week prior, and four-week average of 11 m.b. More numbers reflecting our weak-demand scenario, I expect to last until late March or early April, when seasonal exports for June on out new-crop deliveries begin. ... read more the grain report - Dead of Winter Seasonals
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 January 2010
Short week as we start things on Tuesday with what normally is our Monday weekly export inspection report – a gauge of near-term demand.
Wheat inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export was 9.3 million bushels, down from 12.3 m.b. the week prior, and four-week average of 11 m.b. More numbers reflecting our weak-demand scenario, I expect to last until late March or early April, when seasonal exports for June on out new-crop deliveries begin. ... read more the grain report - Weather - Crude - Dollar
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 15 January 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report came out telling how much of each grain was sold last week, becoming a strong gauge for demand. Wheat sales were weak at 181 T.M.T. We need 700 T.M.T. weekly to price futures higher from a demand viewpoint. We sold some low-grade, feed-quality wheat to Asia, but demand for wheat should remain a non-pricing factor until the winter wheat harvest looms upon us next May. ... read more the grain report - Weather - Crude - Dollar
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 15 January 2010
Thursday’s weekly export sales report came out telling how much of each grain was sold last week, becoming a strong gauge for demand. Wheat sales were weak at 181 T.M.T. We need 700 T.M.T. weekly to price futures higher from a demand viewpoint. We sold some low-grade, feed-quality wheat to Asia, but demand for wheat should remain a non-pricing factor until the winter wheat harvest looms upon us next May. ... read more  the grain report - Corn Surprise
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 12 January 2010
Monday began with the weekly export inspection reports, a gauge of how near-term demand is going. Wheat was as usual, weak with 11 m.b. inspected for near-term export versus 10 the week prior and 20 m.b. a year ago. This was equal the four-week average of 11.4 m.b. Demand is expected to return as a pricing source come April as the winter crop breaks dormancy and greens up, while importers to U.S. ports for June on out delivery. ... read more the energy report - When bullish is not just bullish enough
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 12 January 2010
Oil looked a bit tired to start the week, unable to build on early gains inspired by a weekend of what should have been exceptionally bullish news. Whether it was the strong economic data out of China or the increasing tensions around the globe with regards to Nigeria and Iran, or the ongoing oil price dispute between Russia and Belarus, the bulls should have continued to have their way with this market the way they had the week before. ... read more the grain report - Corn Surprise
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 12 January 2010
Monday began with the weekly export inspection reports, a gauge of how near-term demand is going. Wheat was as usual, weak with 11 m.b. inspected for near-term export versus 10 the week prior and 20 m.b. a year ago. This was equal the four-week average of 11.4 m.b. Demand is expected to return as a pricing source come April as the winter crop breaks dormancy and greens up, while importers to U.S. ports for June on out delivery. ... read more the grain report - U.S.D.A Review
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 09 January 2010
First things first, and that’s the demand side of the market with our Thursday weekly export sales report: It had about as expected, relatively lower sales as last week’s exports had fewer days due to the New Year’s holiday leaving exporting companies, ports, shippers and the U.S.D.A. closed. Wheat sales last week could barely be found at a new, marketing-year low of 93 T.M.T. Even Asian countries ignored a chance to buy some feed-quality wheat. Demand will remain weak until new winter wheat crops come in next April. ... read more the grain report - U.S.D.A Review
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 08 January 2010
First things first, and that’s the demand side of the market with our Thursday weekly export sales report: It had about as expected, relatively lower sales as last week’s exports had fewer days due to the New Year’s holiday leaving exporting companies, ports, shippers and the U.S.D.A. closed. Wheat sales last week could barely be found at a new, marketing-year low of 93 T.M.T. Even Asian countries ignored a chance to buy some feed-quality wheat. Demand will remain weak until new winter wheat crops come in next April. ... read more the energy report - Vying to be Mr. Yen
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 08 January 2010
Whose yen is it anyway? Strong yen, weak yen and why in the world does the oil market care? Well the Japanese yen along with the dollar, have been bit players in the massive run in the oil. This year as traders looked for trades to carry them away, one trade that was very bullish for oil was the dollar/yen carry trade.
Oil soared as investor sold dollars because of our negative interest and bought other currencies, even the yen for heaven’s sake, that were yielding a higher interest rate. ... read more the grain report - HAPPY NEW YEAR
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 06 January 2010
We started the week’s reports with our weekly export inspection report showing wheat inspections at 9.1 million bushels versus 10.9 the week prior; 13.1 a year ago; and our weak four-week average of 12.4. It speaks for itself that demand remains a non-positive driving force near-term. Corn saw 20.3 m.b. inspected for near-term export versus 31.2 the week prior; 23.8 a year ago; and four-week average of 24.7. I see it as neutral as importers are fresh off the holiday-closings most celebrated and await price direction for the start of the New Year. ... read more the grain report - HAPPY NEW YEAR
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 06 January 2010
We started the week’s reports with our weekly export inspection report showing wheat inspections at 9.1 million bushels versus 10.9 the week prior; 13.1 a year ago; and our weak four-week average of 12.4. It speaks for itself that demand remains a non-positive driving force near-term. Corn saw 20.3 m.b. inspected for near-term export versus 31.2 the week prior; 23.8 a year ago; and four-week average of 24.7. I see it as neutral as importers are fresh off the holiday-closings most celebrated and await price direction for the start of the New Year. ... read more the energy report - Baby You Can Park my Car
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 06 January 2010
Baby you can park my car. Yes it might even start, baby you can park my car and baby it is still cold outside. America hibernates and parks their cars as gas consumption hits a 13 month low. The drop in demand led to big surge in gasoline inventories according to two widely followed industry reports.
The first hint that America seemed to stay home for the holidays came from the MasterCard Spending pulse report that showed that gasoline purchases fell to 8.93 million barrels a day which was down 3.5% from the week before and the lowest level of gasoline demand since September 2009. ... read more the grain report - We Made It
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 31 December 2009
What a year! Last December I released my 2009 grain forecast in the middle of the worst economic collapse of recent times. I laid out a picture of world demand for high protein crops, feed grains for feed and fuel with a rally into spring and summer.
The national media referred to me as a contrarian to the industry as the rest of the trade all called for a world-wide recession and lower grain demand. Corn was trading at 3.20 - my projection was 4.60 to 5.25. Our high was over 4.70. In beans, we were trading at 8.00 and I projected $10 to $11 spring prices, and $13 summer growing season high. ... read more the grain report - We Made It
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 31 December 2009
What a year! Last December I released my 2009 grain forecast in the middle of the worst economic collapse of recent times. I laid out a picture of world demand for high protein crops, feed grains for feed and fuel with a rally into spring and summer.
The national media referred to me as a contrarian to the industry as the rest of the trade all called for a world-wide recession and lower grain demand. Corn was trading at 3.20 - my projection was 4.60 to 5.25. Our high was over 4.70. In beans, we were trading at 8.00 and I projected $10 to $11 spring prices, and $13 summer growing season high. ... read more the grain report - Export Inspections
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 29 December 2009
This week, same as the last, with some early market closings Thursday, with all markets closed Friday. All our reports are out on time this week starting with our Monday 10:00 am weekly export inspection report. It put wheat inspections at 10.6 million bushels inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export, down from 13.3 the week prior, 13.5 on our four-week average, but up from a weak number a year ago of 4.5 m.b. It is what it is: a weak demand signal near-term. ... read more the grain report - Export Inspections
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 29 December 2009
This week, same as the last, with some early market closings Thursday, with all markets closed Friday. All our reports are out on time this week starting with our Monday 10:00 am weekly export inspection report. It put wheat inspections at 10.6 million bushels inspected by the U.S.D.A. for near-term export, down from 13.3 the week prior, 13.5 on our four-week average, but up from a weak number a year ago of 4.5 m.b. It is what it is: a weak demand signal near-term. ... read more the grain report - Snow Harvest Here
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 December 2009
Last night the U.S.D.A released its crop progress report for corn. This is the third weekly extension of this report as the government tries to finish its crop estimates accurately for the January crop report which has our final corn and bean production numbers. It put our historically late corn harvest at 95% complete up 3% from the week prior. The states that continue to be unable to get harvest done , continue to see more bad weather. Illinois is 95% harvested and sees rain, sleet and snow the next 5 days. ... read more the grain report - Snow Harvest Here
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 December 2009
Last night the U.S.D.A released its crop progress report for corn. This is the third weekly extension of this report as the government tries to finish its crop estimates accurately for the January crop report which has our final corn and bean production numbers. It put our historically late corn harvest at 95% complete up 3% from the week prior. The states that continue to be unable to get harvest done , continue to see more bad weather. Illinois is 95% harvested and sees rain, sleet and snow the next 5 days. ... read more the grain report - Holiday Week Ahead
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 18 December 2009
Let’s address the demand side of the market first with Thursday’s weekly export sales report that gives us the amount of each grain sold last week and becomes our strongest near-term gauge of demand.
Wheat, the weak sister in the group continues to show the results of record inventories on foreign ports with U.S. sales last week at 341 T.M.T. up 2% from a very weak four-week average. ... read more the grain report - Holiday Week Ahead
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 18 December 2009
Let’s address the demand side of the market first with Thursday’s weekly export sales report that gives us the amount of each grain sold last week and becomes our strongest near-term gauge of demand.
Wheat, the weak sister in the group continues to show the results of record inventories on foreign ports with U.S. sales last week at 341 T.M.T. up 2% from a very weak four-week average. ... read more |
