The Bond Bulletin - Technical support and weak data trigger massive Treasury buying
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 30 July 2010
Bonds and notes soared into the weekend as traders squared their short positions and speculative longs entered in anticipation of further economic deterioration. In early morning trade, equities struggled to find footing but even after an impressive rally back to unchanged, Treasuries failed to counter-act the move. Bond and note traders couldn't seem to "get over" the sharp decline in second quarter GDP. After previously revised growth rate of 3.7%, the advanced GDP fell to 2.4%. ... read more

The Stock Index Report - Bulls come out on top...
Carley Garner I Alaron Research - 30 July 2010
The stock rally is in jeopardy but the bulls aren't giving up easily. Despite bearish seasonals and a string of questionable economic data, the equity meltdown that some were looking for hasn't materialized. Friday was a finicky session. Stock index futures dropped sharply on news of a slightly worse than expected GDP rate of 2.4%. It seems to have been the "sticker shock" of the drop from 3.7% to the current rate that sent some into panic mode. ... read more

The Grain Report - Weather over there
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 30 July 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out ahead of the open. Wheat sales were 919 t.m.t. versus 382 t.m.t. the week prior and four week average of 405. This was the highest weekly sales number since October of 2007. With wheat making a $1.50 four week high last week, you would think importers would back away and wait for better cash prices; instead they come in with panic buying. Their fear is if we don’t buy wheat at $6, we could end up paying $7 or $8. The driving force is production problems with major producing countries. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 30 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’22 higher at 128’18. This mornings report on 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.4% versus an expectation of 2.5%. In the first quarter the economy grew by 3.7% revised from 2.7%, but growth estimates going back as far as 2007 have been revised to lower numbers. This overal revision of data over the past 3 years showed that the exit from the economic slump started in 2007 was weaker than anticipated. As an economist friend of mine likes to say “ Economists have predicted 11 out of the last 7 recessions”. This saying, I assume, also goes for recoveries. ... read more

The Energy Report - Did Deflation Fears Help Rally The Oil Market?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 July 2010
Did Deflation fears help rally the oil market? Oil prices popped as the dollar index dropped hitting the lowest level since last April. The market seems convinced that the Euro zones problems are behind us so it appears that the carry commodity trade is back in play but could we see more problems up ahead?. Of course while the dollar has been trending lower and the Euro higher is this a sign that we are headed for a bought of commodity price inflation or are the markets more worried about deflation. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: EUR/CAD
autochartist.com - 30 July 2010
After a week of hard-fought gains and higher lows in the EUR/CAD, the Euro has weakened slightly against the Canadian Dollar and corrected lower intraday. After exhausting at the resistance of the Autochartist Forecast area between 1.3575 and 1.3603 (F)-which projected the upside target following the Rising Wedge continuation-prices are moving lower in what is likely intraday profit-taking. ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: Palladium
autochartist.com - 30 July 2010
The daily chart of Palladium traded sharply higher throughout Thursday's session, with momentum showing a very bullish sentiment as the overall market continues to trade within a wide, sideways range. The intraday time frames reflected this near-term strength, transitioning into uptrends across the 15-, 30- 60-, and 240-minute charts. Typically, the time frame that offers the most immediate entry is the short-term 15-minute chart. If a larger correction is to occur, the early signs of profit-taking or a pullback will often result in the reversal of an uptrending pattern such as a Rising Wedge or Channel Up. ... read more

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 30 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 30 July 2010
Overview Stocks head into the final day of July with the best monthly gain in a year, yet July’s hot performance has only sparked debate about what August will bring. The key data point Friday is second quarter GDP, expected to show 2.5 percent growth. Even though it’s backward looking, economists have been looking forward to it for weeks as they’ve fine-tuned their estimates, based on a surprisingly choppy data stream. ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Advance GDP From U.S. Today
bforex Research - 30 July 2010
The USD continued to trade in a rather well defined range on Thursday. The U.S. released weekly Unemployment Claims that came in a little better than expected, but quarterly earnings from corporate America disappointed investors and this put Wall Street into in a decline. Today the Advance GDP will come from the U.S. and the anticipated mark is a gain of 2.5%, it will be followed by the Chicago PMI and the Revised Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan. Data from the States the past couple of months has begun to turn lackluster and because of this, talk about another statistical downturn is prevalent. ... read more

The Energy Report - Coming To America!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 July 2010
Everywhere from around the world, the crudes coming to America, every time that flag’s unfurled crude is coming to America, got a dream to take it there, it’s coming to America. It’s coming to America and coming to America! Give me your poor, your huddles masses but most of all give me your crude. Crude Imports surged hitting the highest level since August of 2006 leading to a whopper 7.3 million barrel build in US Crude supply. This was a far cry from most analysts’ expectations that were looking for a big drop in supply by thinking that Tropical Storm Bonnie would impact imports in a negative fashion. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 29 July 2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 15 lower at 126’12. This mornings Jobless Claims were down by 11,000 versus expectations of a decrease of only 4,000. This wasn’t great news but the market has looked upon the number as constructive. Yesterday we were stopped out of a recent long position from the 126’13 level when the market traded through the 126’03 level, putting us on the sidelines. Near term support is currently 125’26 and near term resistance 127’12. ... read more

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 29 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 29 July 2010
Overview Wall Street was lower last night after weak durable goods figures and a downbeat assessment of the economy from the Fed’s Beige Book kept the benchmark S&P 500 trapped below its 200-day moving average. Other Asian bourses saw a mixed performance today with most down small Overnight in Asia with the Japanese Nikkei Closing Day Down 57.25 Points, 0.59% At 9696.02. Currency News EUR/USD Back Above 1.3000, As Risk Appetite Firms Slightly – The EUR/USD has recovered from an early low at 1.2977, ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: Lumber
autochartist.com - 29 July 2010
The daily chart of Lumber has been ranging between 217.00 and 197.30 as prices congest. This congestion has squeezed the intraday time frames into narrowing ranges that are setting up an Autochartist Initial Movement/Momentum (AIM) entry. Ideally, an AIM entry would capitalize on a breakout or breakdown through a Rectangle or Triangle pattern; however, due to the move lower intraday on July 27, the 60-minute time frame has formed a shallow Falling Wedge pattern. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: AUD/JPY
autochartist.com - 29 July 2010
The 30-minute chart of the AUD/JPY has bounced higher within a very strong downtrend. The nine-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading indicates that bearish sentiment still dominates current price action. The Channel Down breakout through the pattern's top line is therefore triggering an aggressive reversal entry long. The buy taken at the downtrend line break at 78.08 (E) should not be expected to travel much higher than recent resistance (at least not immediately), which means that prices will be met with selling pressure between the bottom of the Forecast range at 78.41 (F) and the near-term high at 78.44. ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Lackluster Data From The U.S.
bforex Research - 29 July 2010
USD A day of range trading was experienced on Wednesday as the markets tried to interpret rather disappointing data and news from the States. Core Durable Goods turned in a disappointing drop of minus -0.6% compared to the estimated gain of 0.6%. Also the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report did not provide a glowing outlook on economy. Today weekly Unemployment Claims figures will make their way forth and a number of 457K is anticipated, this would be a slight improvement on last week’s result of 464K. ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - Resistance Keeps The Dollar from Slipping
bforex Research - 29 July 2010
GBPUSD There is always a period of hightened volatility when a pair trades through the moving averages as it typically triggers position realignments. When a pair remains within the major moving average’s range the volatility extends itself until the market dictates overall guiding sentiment. The CAD exemplifies this point to the tee. When trading inside of the major MA’s ranges your stops often have to be a little wider due to the volatility in order not to get stopped out to easily. ... read more

The Energy Report - Fundamentally Flawed
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 July 2010
Another failed upside breakout as the global oil market continues to wallow in this endless trading range. As the bull and bear frustrations continue to mount, I have heard traders on both sides of the market that tell me that somehow the markets are wrong and that the fundamentals do not justify the current price. In other words that the market is somehow fundamentally flawed and that the price is out of whack with either your bullish or perhaps bearish reality. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 28 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 126’16. This morning’s Durable Goods report was a bit of a disappointment coming in a -1% versus expectations of +1%. The immediate reaction was a rally to the 126’26 level before backing off to current levels. Yesterday the long 10 Yr. Note /short Bond spread traded at our objective of 4’00 premium the Bonds and we are now out of this position. Yesterday we also recommended trading Bonds from the long side from the 126’13 level with a 10 point protective stop for a short term trade. If you went long, continue to use a protective sell stop in the 126’03 area. ... read more

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 28July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 28 July 2010
Overview The Euro gained in late Asian trading, with EUR/USD returning to the 1.3020s, EUR/JPY breaking above the 114.50-mark and EUR/CHF printing a 1.3801 high. The move higher in the headline pair returns the short-term focus to the 1.3050 barriers. The Australian Dollar took a bit of a hit during trading last night, falling due to a slowdown in inflation. Elsewhere, the euro slipped from 11-week highs and Asian stocks marked time on Wednesday as a recent rally lost steam after a drop in U.S. consumer confidence. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: GBP/CHF
autochartist.com - 28 July 2010
The GBP/CHF has stalled at the top of Tuesday's intraday range, with the current ceiling at 1.6547. The uptrend has established itself across the 15-, 30-, 60- and 240-minute and daily charts with little-to-no correction lower, as the rally began off a double-bottom formation from the lows at 1.5833 and 1.5854. If the current congestion is an indication of the bulls exhausting, then the upper trend line of the Channel Up pattern on the 60-minute time frame should keep the GBP/CHF below the range from 1.6595 (A) to 1.6600. ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: Spot Gold
autochartist.com - 28 July 2010
After the dramatic morning sell-off that accompanied the open of the U.S. equities market, Gold continued its downtrend into the afternoon, with no sign of slowing or profit-taking. This negativity pushed the market through the support area, from 1180 to 1175, that has kept the Gold market afloat over the past week. Once this level was broken, the drop came quickly as neutral intraday sentiment shifted sharply lower. The Channel Down pattern that formed on Gold's 30-minute chart shows the consolidation that is taking place now that the bulls have been able to support the 1157.15 level. ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Mixed Data, Mixed Trading
bforex Research - 28 July 2010
USD The USD mirrored the broad marketplace in the States on Tuesday turning in a mixed performance. The USD traded in a stable manner against the EUR but continued to lose ground to the Sterling. Economic data proved much the same yesterday, as the CB Consumer Confidence reading missed its estimate and turned in a number of 50.4 compared to the anticipated mark of 51.3. The S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI however did beat expectations with a result of 4.6%, beating the forecasted gain of 3.9. Quarterly earnings continued from the U.S. yesterday and while the Dow Jones climbed the S&P and the Nasdaq both declined. ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - Breakouts as Dollar Falters
bforex Research - 28 July 2010
GBPUSD The GBP has now broken free of the prior high and has converged on the 200 day moving average. The GBP has not traded above the 200 day MA since late January. A close above the 200 day MA followed by a close above the 50% Fibonacci Retrace will most like push the GBP back above a 1.60 handle. We drew the Fibonacci Retrace from 2009’s high to 2010’s low. Only a close below trend line support followed by a close below the prior low would cause GBP bears to start looking at any new short positions. ... read more

The Grain Report - Weather neutral
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 July 2010
Monday’s first report came on the demand side with our weekly export inspection reports. Wheat showed 15.4 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near term export, down from 23.5 the week prior and four week average of 17.5 m.b. The decline is as simple as importers see record U.S. stocks at 950 m.b. with last week’s high finishing off a 1.60 four week rally. Importers took a safe bet to back off and look for a break. But, the rally was not about demand rather than trend following funds getting out of their record short position that was 77 thousand short four weeks ago and entering this week short 17 thousand contracts. ... read more

Weekly Forex Update: EUR/JPY
autochartist.com - 27 July 2010
After breaking through the downtrend line resistance of a Falling Wedge pattern at 110.00 (E) on the daily chart, the EUR/JPY has rallied to prior resistance between 113.30 and 113.40-well shy of the Autochartist Forecast area between 115.07 and 121.75 (F). The likely reason for the stall that came after the pattern reversal higher is the current market cycle, which still shows a strong eight-bar Initial Trend reading. This suggests there is still a strong downtrend on the daily chart; ... read more

Weekly Commodities Update: Spot Gold
autochartist.com - 27 July 2010
Spot Gold's daily chart has formed a Pennant formation over the past 21 candles, which makes this Emerging Pattern alert, at only one month, a fairly short formation. Pennants are typically congestion-to-consolidation patterns that occur in range-bound markets; while this formation does have a downward-facing angle-reflecting the current bearish sentiment in Gold-the market is moving within the Pennant's two downtrend lines. What this means is that the current alert has identified where buying support and selling pressure are waiting as the market trends lower. ... read more

The Energy Report - All The News That Is Fit To Ignore
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 July 2010
All The News that is fit to Ignore. Gee I miss the old days when a headline or two would get the oil screaming. When the markets feared that even the loss of just one drop of oil could knock the world out of its delicate supply versus demand balance. You remember those days not to long ago when the market soared on even the most mundane headline. Instead what we have now a lack of passion and that oh so boring market stability. Oh sure oil may try to reluctantly breakout to the upside as it follows the stock-market on its earnings fueled optimistic rally yet deep down it really does not want too. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 27 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 26 lower at 126’13. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 4’05 premium the Bonds. If you remain in this spread, I feel it is close enough to my objective of 4’00 premium the Bonds to liquidate this position. Technically the market is testing near term support at current levels. Near term resistance is now the 127’18 level. I am recommending the long side of market at present levels with a 10 point stop for short term trades. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: USD/CHF
autochartist.com - 27 July 2010
As the Asian session approaches, it's very likely that the intraday USD/CHF has found a sideways range within which to trade. The current market cycles on the 15-, 30-, and even 60-minute charts indicate that the small move lower during today's trading session-as the Swiss franc gained on the U.S. dollar-leveled out the short-term time frames as both the 240-minute and daily charts remain range-bound. ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: High Grade Copper
autochartist.com - 27 July 2010
The intraday market for High Grade Copper is showing signs of fatigue after what has been a strong climb towards the upside. After five consecutive sessions with higher closes, the market may be primed for a correction-and some near-term profit taking. Early signs are apparent on the 15-minute time frame where prices, after accelerating higher from a Triangle breakout, are congesting within the Forecast area range between 323.2 and 321.0 (F). ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - A Taste For Risk Appetite
bforex Research - 27 July 2010
USD The USD continued to trend lower against the major currencies on Monday and finished the day at the weakest parts of its range versus the big three – the EUR, GBP, and JPY. The greenback has been giving back ground to many of the international currencies the past few weeks including the AUD and the question that now must be asked is if this is happening on the heels of weak U.S. data or a natural pull back following strong gains. New Home Sales figures were released yesterday and they provided a nice surprise coming in with a result of 330K compared to the estimate of 317K. ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - Macro Perspective
bforex Research - 27 July 2010
Price action has been extremely volatile over the past 2 months. Therefore it is necessary to gain some perspective on overall price action. An easy way to do this is simply analyze price action on a weekly chart to see which pairs are trending and which are range bound. GBPUSD The Pound has been trending nicely since the end of May with only 1 week in the negative. ... read more

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 27July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 27 July 2010
Overview The euro rallied to $1.30 on Monday as relief over European bank stress tests and stronger economic data on both sides of the Atlantic gave investors less reason to be risk averse. The pair trades above 1.30 on Tuesday morning looking to test the 1.3030 resistance level. Focus is on equities at this stage following the bullish outside weeks posted on all major U.S. stock indices. Overall these are good developments that should see major indices post further gains. ... read more

FX Weekly - Review: 19th - 23rd July 2010
Alpari Research - 26 July 2010
USD A tremendously uncertain and volatile week of trading ended on a high in terms of risk appetite despite several negative developments in the recovery story. The US dollar was under pressure, closing the week lower against all currencies except the Yen and Swiss Franc – the two worst performing currencies in the G20 last week. EUR/USD closed the week exactly where it opened but not before the downside was tested around 1.2750; ... read more

FX Weekly - Preview: 26th - 30th July 2010
Alpari Research - 26 July 2010
The Q2 earnings season kicked off two weeks ago with most EPS results coming in above estimates. This has so far led to USD declines and equity market strength despite a few disappointments along the way (Goldman, IBM, Citigroup, Bank of America). This week has a further 100 firms reporting which is likely to influence all other asset classes as has been the case so far. For a full rundown of Q2 earnings see the calendar on page 7 or visit: ... read more

The Energy Report - Bye, Bye, Bonnie
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 July 2010
With Bonnie behind us and more economic ahead of us the oil market currently is in a state of flux. The market continues to be supported by economic earnings related optimism but at the same time it has to worry about current state of oversupply. Oil and the products remain range bound and will continue to see swings perhaps on both sides of unchanged throughout the day. When the big news of the day is whether or not Tony Heyward will step down or be pushed out of BP has to wonder whether or not the markets are focused on what it should be focused on. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 26 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 127’02. Yields on the 30 Yr. Bond and 10 Yr. Notes are back to about 4% and 3% respectively. A stronger equities market and the ability of most European banks to pass the “stress tests” have taken some of the upward pressure off the long term interest rate vehicles (30yr., 10 yr. and 5 yr.). If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Notes/short Bonds (currently at 4’16) I would recommend contniuing to hold out for the 4’00 level premium the Bopnds to liquidate the position. ... read more

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 26July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 26 July 2010
Overview Just seven of 91 European banks failed a health check and need to raise their capital by 3.5 billion Euros ($4.5 billion), much less than expected, confirming fears the continent’s long-awaited stress test was too soft. On Monday, markets may turn their attention to the dozen or so banks that just scraped through. EU tests of banks’ ability to withstand financial shocks, criticised as too easy after only 7 out of 91 failed, face their own stress test in the markets on Monday with early signs pointing to a more positive response. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: AUD/USD
autochartist.com - 26 July 2010
The area from 0.8950 to 0.8970 continues to put pressure on the bulls as the Australian Dollar holds onto its gains from the past week against the U.S. Dollar in the AUD/USD pair. The Aussie Dollar and the commodities sector move in strong correlation, and with the Dow Jones higher today, commodities are rallying - which keeps sentiment bullish on the intraday AUD/USD. The current ceiling at 0.8971 is also near the 200 period simple moving average on the daily time frame which will present significant resistance. ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: Live Cattle
autochartist.com - 26 July 2010
Live Cattle has been trending higher since the last week in June, with current congestion only the second time on the 60-minute time frame has slowed the uptrend enough to transition into a more sideways market cycle. The two-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading has identified the current market direction as an accumulation cycle - a sideways and narrow trading range. This sideways consolidation has alerted a Triangle Emerging Pattern. ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Recovery Debate Will Get Loud This Week
bforex Research - 26 July 2010
USD The USD finished the week softer against the EUR and GBP. Although Wall Street continues to turn in tentative results the broad market place showed that enough risk appetite exists in order to create a strong debate among bulls and bears. The greenback essentially finds itself at the weaker parts of its strong trend versus the EUR, and the GBP has pulled itself back into a fairly buoyant range. The U.S. did not release any major data on Friday, but investors will get New Homes Sales figures today and the estimate is 317K compared to the previous result of 300K. ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - Forex Market Not Impressed With European Bank Stress Tests
bforex Research - 26 July 2010
EURUSD The EUR continues to consolidate near the 100 day moving average. The EUR is holding above trend line support, however, analysts remain cautious as a horizontal breach of trend line support is often followed by a break lower. The currency’s inability to remain within trend line support and resistance means that buyers are backing off. The reason we are seeing consolidation at the 100 MA is because major Resistance is holding at a 1.30 handle. The EUR is now set to either break out on a close above resistance or to stumble lower as buyer exuberance has temporarily worn off. ... read more

The Grain Report - Mixed news
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 23 July 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out putting wheat exports last week at 382 t.m.t. up 24% from the previous week. This suggest that some buying for insurance against falling world production may be beginning. With 950 m.b. sitting in U.S. storage there’s no threat of running out the next 12 months but fear of continued world production declines may lead more end users to move from hand to mouth buying as needed to buying 10% more to lay aside as were still at fair value on prices. The 2008 record high prices are not far removed from trader’s thoughts. For now, the number is neutral to demand but suggests future weeks could come in higher. ... read more

The Energy Report - My Bonnie
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 July 2010
All right readers, you knew this was coming. My Bonnie lies over the ocean. My Bonnie will make rig workers flee. My Bonnie will slow gulf operations, and bring oil bears to their knees. Sorry about that but I just had to do it. Batten down the hatches! Oil is getting blown out of its recent trading range hitting a three month high. With tropical storm Bonnie lying over the ocean and good earnings supporting the stock market, commodities markets are zest and full of life. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Steady, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 23 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently steady at 128’03. Over night the Bonds traded below near term support of 127’24 making an early morning low of 127’07 as the market reacted to favorable economic news from Europe. The market is now focused on results of “stress tests” of European banks. If you remain spread long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bonds, my objective remains at 4’00 premium the Bonds (the spread is currently at 4’28). As mentioned yesterday I am currently on the sidelines as far as initiating new positions at this time. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: GBP/JPY
autochartist.com - 23 July 2010
Shorter time frames are the building blocks that create, of course, longer time frames. This means that if a longer-term trend is to continue, it will be built on the momentum of the short-term charts. The trend on the intraday GBP/JPY was up for most of Thursday's session, but prices may be forming an intraday double top that could hinder further bullish price action. With a previous high at 133.30, the pair now shows that selling pressure could push prices lower. ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: U.S. Light Crude
autochartist.com - 23 July 2010
After Thursday's session, when prices spent the day rallying to 79.75, the intraday chart of U.S. Light Crude most recently consolidated into a very narrow range. The squeeze on the trading range formed a Triangle pattern on the 15-minute time frame. This narrow, sideways range is confirmed by Autochartist's Initial Trend reading, which is a scant two bars. This reading signals an accumulation market cycle, from which an Autochartist Initial Movement/Momentum (AIM) trade may be set up. ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - Breakouts; Support & Resistance
bforex Research - 23 July 2010
A Breakout generally occurs when price encounters a level of Resistance and then proceeds to break through that level. Remember that one currency's Support is the other currency's Resistance. The reason breakouts appear at Resistance levels is due to the fact that Sellers try to push price in the opposite direction is order to prosper from the bounce off a defined market level of Resistance. If Buyers are not strong enough that is precisely what happens and what continues to form the level of resistance. Once there are enough Buyers to break through the selling pressure, then momentum carries itself forward and a breakout occurs. ... read more

The Energy Report - Ben What A Bummer!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 July 2010
Bummer Bernanke - Ben what a bummer! Way to bring us all down Ben. Dude, we were feeling happy in this little bubble world of earnings driven economic expectations and you go and have to ruin our little economic recovery fantasy world bliss. Why did you have to tell us the truth man and ruin the buzz? That you and most of your friends at the Fed saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. Why tell us that the economic expansion is only proceeding at a moderate pace and only because it is being supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 22 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 lower at 128’23. Yesterday the market rallied sharply after Bernacke spoke about about lowered growth expectations. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bonds dropped to 3.89% and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note also dropped to a yield of 2.89%. Resistance of 128’12 was handily penetrated as the market rallied to a high of 129’14 befroe backing off to present levels. To be honest, the trend is up but I cannot trade this market from the long side with the yield at present levels. If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Notes/ short the Bonds, ... read more

Daily Forex Update: EUR/USD
autochartist.com - 22 July 2010
The EUR/USD has enjoyed a steady recovery as the Euro continues to gain on the U.S. Dollar. The uptrend seen on this pair could be correcting lower after what has been a strong surge throughout the month of July - a surge that saw very little pullback. Due to the move lower during Wednesday's trading session, the 240-minute chart has triggered a reversal of the Channel Up pattern, which could usher in more bearish sentiment and a more significant move to the downside. ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: Lean Hogs
autochartist.com - 22 July 2010
The short-term intraday chart of Lean Hogs has trended higher today after testing buying support at 7445. Reaching this low propelled the market higher until prices stalled at 7582 (B), then traded sideways into the session's close. The lack of follow-through higher into the close, as well as the range-bound price action, has dropped the Autochartist Initial Trend reading to just two bars, indicating an accumulation market cycle. This Wedge formation, however, is an uptrending pattern that would typically be used to set up a continuation or correction entry long within the context of the uptrend that helped form the pattern. ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Unusual Uncertainty’ In The Markets
bforex Research - 22 July 2010
USD As Ben Bernanke spoke yesterday the broad markets suddenly began to move in a risk adverse manner. Upon the words ‘unusual uncertainty’ Wall Street wobbled and finished the day in negative territory and the USD finished off a stable session with gains versus the EUR and GBP. There was no major economic data released from the U.S. on Wednesday and almost all eyes were on the Fed Chairman who stressed that he believed the U.S. was still experiencing a recovery, but cautioned that the Fed is prepared to act if called upon to do so again. ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - The Dollar is Slipping To Dangerous Levels
bforex Research - 22 July 2010
USDJPY We are seeing strong JPY Support building in at 87.50. The JPY is also in the middle of a volatile Step pattern which is generating lower highs and lower lows. If the JPY breaks Support and can close higher than the previous high the USD may be able to turn things around. However, if the JPY Support holds strong at 87.50 then the JPY will be forced lower by the market and without any clear indication from the BOJ that they will intervene at the same 86.00 handle the JPY could fall drastically and in short order. ... read more

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 22 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 22 July 2010
Overview Bernanke quietly optimistic on recovery Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated two key themes in his written Monetary Policy Report testimony before Congress yesterday: the Fed expects a gradual recovery to continue, and it believes the current policy stance is appropriate to support a recovery. Bernanke signaled he needs to see signs of deeper weakness in the economy before pushing the bounds of monetary policy further. ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 21 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 127’21. The yeild on the 30 Yr. Bond remains just below the 4% mark (3.98%) and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note just below 3% (2.96%). I still feel that yields will go above these benchmarks to last weeks levels of 4.1% and 3.04% respectively. If you remain spread long the 10 Yr. Note/ short Bonds (currently at 4’22 premium the Bonds) I would look to liquidate the position at 4’00 premium the Bonds. Near term support remains at 127’02 and near term resistance at 128’12. I still prefer the short side of market on rallies to resistance for short term trades. ... read more

The Energy Report - Oh No, Not Again
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 July 2010
Oh no not again. I’d like to tell you that the supply report from the American Petroleum Institute matters and that we could go back to find love and happiness continuing to scalp oil in its very defined trading range. I would even like to tell you that todays Energy Information Agency report is going to matter as well. Yet the threat to our little trading range nirvana is being threatened by another potential storm down in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center now shows that a tropical wave that we have been watching now has about a 70% chance to biome a hurricane and play havoc with production and imports into the Gulf of Mexico. ... read more

Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 21 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 21 July 2010
Overview The market is focused for now on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, with investors looking for any comments that could boost speculation about more monetary accommodation. This is at 18:00 GMT. Eyes are also on the MPC Minutes released in the UK later this morning. Speculation has affected Cable pairings throughout the morning. Currency News EUR/USD: Retreats from 10-week high ... read more

Daily Forex Update: USD/JPY
autochartist.com - 21 July 2010
The daily USD/JPY has broken lower through the support of a Head and Shoulders formation. The support of a Head and Shoulders pattern is known as a "neckline;" if the neckline is broken an entry for the pattern triggers. This particular breakdown occurred at 87.70, with initial downside support at 86.99. This level is the top of the Autochartist Forecast area (F) and extends lower to 85.92. The resistance of the pattern is at 92.80. Since the Head and Shoulders broke through support and triggered a short-sell entry, ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: WTI (West Texas Intermediate)
autochartist.com - 21 July 2010
The 240-minute chart of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has formed a Triangle pattern; the pattern has transitioned from earlier congestion and higher volatility to the narrow range of the Triangle, where a breakout or breakdown becomes increasingly likely as the trading range becomes ever smaller. As the pattern continues to trade into "the narrows," volatility drops, and the current market cycle, with a three-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading, reflects this. ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - Moving Averages
bforex Research - 21 July 2010
Moving averages can be used during trending and ranging time periods. If price had been moving ahead of the 50 day moving average or trading below the 200 day MA for a significant period of time and the major MA’s are aligned in order, then price action in generally said to be trending. However, when price is trading between the major MA’s and or the MA’s themselves are in no particular order price action is typically ranging. USDCAD The CAD has been ranging for over 2 months. ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Bernanke Testimony Begins With The Senate
bforex Research - 21 July 2010
USD The USD gained on the EUR, but produced rather range bound trading versus the GBP and JPY on Tuesday. The greenback advanced against the EUR, but its move will be interpreted as rather tranquil by most. Housing Starts data proved disappointing yesterday missing its estimate, but Building Permits turned in slightly better than anticipated figures – thus leaving sentiment on the rather tentative ground it had started the day out with. Goldman Sachs basically met the same fate as it turned in numbers that were not up to expectations. However, investors did manage to produce gains for the investment banking giant by day’s end. ... read more

The Grain Report - Weather changes
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 July 2010
Let’s cover our demand report first. Our weekly export inspection report came out at 10:00 a.m. central time Monday showing 22.4 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near terms export versus 14.3 the week prior four week average of 14.5 m.b. Even though our 950 m.b. ending stocks are double recent years, we have digested and priced it in with recent lows and a surge in demand may further encourage trend following funds to continue to buy back what 5 weeks ago was a record short 77thousand contracts and now a short 37 thousand contracts. With a string of wheat exporting countries now suffering crop problems, ... read more

The Energy Report - When You Are Number Two
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 July 2010
When you are number two, aren't you supposed to try harder? China reached a major milestone in its history when it was reported by the International Energy Agency that China had over taken the United States of America as the world’s largest energy consumer. This of course is a label that has belonged to us for a very long time and despite what some environmental naysayers would say, it is a label that we should have worn with pride. For years we heard people scold us because the United States consumes 25% of the world’s energy yet has only 5% of the world’s population. ... read more

Weekly Commodities Update: U.S. Light Crude
autochartist.com - 20 July 2010
The U.S. Light Crude oil market has been congesting on the daily chart as prices trade within the range of a Triangle pattern that has developed over the past 56 candles (that is, three months). This pattern is slowly moving into a market cycle with lower volatility, as confirmed by the two-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading. This reading further indicates that the market is trading within an accumulation cycle, which forms when prices move sideways within a narrowing range. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: USD/CAD
autochartist.com - 20 July 2010
In response to the upcoming Bank of Canada (BOC) decision on rates, which will be announced Tuesday morning at 9:00am EST, the USD/CAD has begun to consolidate across the intraday time frames. On the short-term 15-minute chart, an Ascending Triangle pattern breakdown recently formed and triggered with a move lower through 1.0543 (E). While this Autochartist Initial Movement/Momentum (AIM) entry has triggered a short-sell due to weakness through uptrend line support, the bearish sentiment accompanying the breakdown is very low. The momentum that accompanied the breakdown is measured by Autochartist's Breakout reading, ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: Wheat
autochartist.com - 20 July 2010
The 30-minute chart of Wheat has broken lower through 173.30, triggering an Autochartist Initial Movement/Momentum (AIM) entry short. This break lower through the Triangle pattern's uptrend line support occurred in a range-bound market with low volatility, confirmed by the two-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading. This lack of trend points to the ideal strategy to focus on waiting for the next leg of momentum in a narrow-ranging market. In this case, the move was a bearish dive lower. ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Big Day Of Data & News From The States
bforex Research - 20 July 2010
USD A choppy day of trading took place on Monday for the USD and broad markets. The greenback traded in range against the EUR and GBP, but having started the day off on stronger footing it finished nearly matching values seen just before going into the weekend. There was no major economic data yesterday and markets were left to sift through existing sentiment and move according to the gyrations playing out in bourses. Wall Street had a rather tentative day as traders did take the market higher, ... read more

Daily Technical Analysis - Moving Averages
bforex Research - 20 July 2010
OIL Crude Oil is currently holding above the 50 day moving average where it has found temporary Support. However, Oil is still trading below the 100 and 200 day MA’s, as they act as near term Resistance. Oil has not had a clean close above the 100 MA since late April. If the 200 MA crosses above the 100 MA that will align the major MA’s in the order associated with falling prices, thereby putting Oil under further pressure. Though, a clean close above the 100 MA and an 80 handle could just as easily turn things around. ... read more

Weekly Forex Update: USD/JPY
autochartist.com - 20 July 2010
The USD/JPY continues to trend lower as the Yen remains strong against a U.S. Dollar that was stable, albeit range-bound, throughout Monday's trading session. The stronger Yen denotes risk aversion, as Yen is sold or borrowed primarily when risk appetite is present, as the purchase of more risky and higher-yielding assets are funded by borrowing (that is, selling) Yen, due to its low 0.10% Central Bank rate. Bullish equities movement is therefore best confirmed when Yen is sold against the Dollar and the Euro. ... read more

The Energy Report - When Irish Eyes Are Crying
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 July 2010
A downgrade of Irish debt, an oil spill in China and two storm systems down in the Atlantic that bear watching has oil being pulled in different directions. The tug and pull between bearish and bullish forces has oil bouncing in both directions. Now with a whole plate of earnings ahead of us, the dollar and the stock market will be our guide unless of course things get nasty weather wise down south. Overnight Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's sovereign debt rating to Aa2 from Aa1because of what they say is the government's "gradual but significant loss of financial strength." ... read more

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 19 July 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 6 lower at 127’29. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently 4’23 premium the Bonds. If you remain in this spread, I would continue to hold and look to liquidate in the 4’00 premium the Bonds area. Near term support is currently 127’02 and near term resistance 128’12. I am looking to the short side of the market for short term trades on rallies to resistance. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bond is once again below the 4% level and the yield on the 10 Yr. Note once again below 3%. ... read more

Daily Forex Update: GBP/USD
autochartist.com - 19 July 2010
The daily chart of the GBP/USD has trended higher since prices were able to bounce from the support, at 1.4229, of the May 20 low. The subsequent rally has taken the pair - known as the "cable" - to 1.5400, where prices are now struggling to find a footing in order to climb higher. The Channel Up pattern that formed with the uptrend has resistance waiting at 1.5440 (A), where the Channel's top line is holding prices from continuing higher. Note, though, that the trendline was in fact pierced - this would, if the uptrend was strong, usually open the door to an Autochartist Continuation of the Trend (ACT) entry long. ... read more

Daily Commodities Update: Silver
autochartist.com - 19 July 2010
Silver's 240-minute chart has broken lower through the uptrend line of a Channel Up pattern, at 1800 (A). The Channel Up developed within a strong mark-up cycle, which is confirmed by the maximum ten-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading. Anytime a strong mark-up cycle or uptrend (such as this one) is reversed, be wary of potential support because traders may buy into the pullback: whereas some traders will see a reversal, others may interpret it as a correction - and an opportunity to buy. The momentum behind the breakdown was very bearish, ... read more

Daily Fundamental Analysis - Data From The States Continues To Be Soft
bforex Research - 19 July 2010
USD The USD traded in a consolidated manner on Friday against the EUR and GBP, albeit at the weaker side of its range. Divergence has taken hold within the broad markets and this has occurred as U.S. data continues to underperform, sparking genuine concern that the ‘softening’ numbers may represent a rather ugly future to come. The Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan produced an outcome of 66.5 compared to the estimate of 74.2, which was already estimated to be weaker than the previous mark. ... read more